00:17
I was second or third on that ball, I see now, DASTE has summarized it.
08:53
The 13 km long convoy was probably on its way to Izyum and was likely driving somewhere east of Kharkov.
Looking at the roads, they must either come uncomfortably close to the 17th Tank Brigade, 81st Airmobile, 25th Airborne, or on the road that passes the disputed Borova, and there we know that the 128th Mountain Brigade has been deployed, which is not much mountain but rather armor with extensive combat experience from Donbass.
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Without knowing anything, I guess it is one of these brigades that took the opportunity to strike the convoy, or that they tried all the new switchblade suicide drones at once 🙂
09:03
There has been a lot of pre-bombardment during the night Russian style, that is, against cities.
The explosion in Mykolaiv was so big that someone on the Ukrainian side tested for radioactivity (according to pro-Russian rumors…) and we guessed wildly last night. Was it a magazine with nitrium in the port and a lucky hit?
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To me, it looks like they have started the pre-bombardment phase of Putin’s hyped spring offensive, pre-bombardment against Kharkov, Mykolaiv and cities on the stalemate line. This is then to be followed by a simultaneous advance at Kharkov, Donbass, Luhansk, the southern front and Donbass in a few days. A qualified guess is that it will be launched over a few days because these are Russians.
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Considering all the supplies that have burned up and how Ukraine has to some extent decimated virtually all convoys that have tried to get down from the northern front to east of Kharkov, the chance is probably quite high that this will not become much of an offensive. The bunker dwarf will probably force the commanders to go all in with what they have but it will probably stop quite quickly. We’ll see.
09:13
This is what it says at Militaryland, “Ukrainian HQ suspects that Russian army might go for Dnipro instead, and the Slovyansk operation is just a diversion”.
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That wouldn’t be completely unreasonable thinking from the bunker dwarf, go big – close the bridges over the Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia and win the war before May 9 in the biggest possible style. Now the problem is that Ukraine has mobilized and the Russians’ BTGs are in poor condition and in Belgorod it explodes daily like the worst New Year’s party.
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If you look at the map, there is a natural defensive line Dnipro – Pavlograd – Troitske/Slovyansk that the Russians will not get past. It can be fortified with National Guard infantry with assigned armor platoons or anti-tank weapons.
There are also poor roads so they cannot directly swarm downwards if they have now considered not attacking columns anymore.
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And again, NW of Izyum there are the 17th Tank Brigade, 25th Airborne and 81st Airmobile that can cut all supplies at the right moment.
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An early conclusion is probably that whether the Russians continue south from Izyum or turn southwest at Barvinkove towards Dnipro, this operation is doomed without having achieved a strategic goal.
09:20
I also think I understand Ukraine’s ice-cold tactics on the southern front, Mariupol holds out and the Russians try an attack northward on the southern front which will be knocked out quite immediately and then there will be a Ukrainian counteroffensive southwards that partly closes the bridges at Khakovka and Kherson on the eastern side and partly liberates Mariupol. They need to let the Russians decimate themselves first and leave their defensive positions.
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What the 10 heavy brigades in reserve have as a task, I have no idea, maybe reinforce the southern front with a couple and the rest go towards Donbass? The stalemate line-Donbass itself feels a bit like a suicide mission for Ukraine to get through, there you probably have to use precision artillery and drones over several weeks to remove the defense before you can roll through with reasonable losses. But if you can concentrate everything you have there in terms of artillery and drones, it’s just a matter of time.
09:30
I am posting a pro-Russian analysis, the blogger can remove it if it is not according to the rules.
https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-7/
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What I want to show is that there has begun to creep in an undertone of “yes, Ukraine fights well but not well enough for our world-class army, just wait” and “the reason it has gone slow/bad is the fault of the US, EU, everyone else”.
It didn’t sound like this the first month, partly they try to find reasons why everything hasn’t gone according to plan and then like the best of twelve-year-olds blame everything on someone else. This is a very good sign, the triumphant tone is quite subdued now but they still hype the big spring offensive.
14:37
At the risk of having fallen for psyops again, but it is partly a Facebook post from marines in Mariupol who are negative and why they cannot continue fighting and a capture video of something that looks like surrendering field soldiers and which could be authentic, 160 according to a pro-Russian site.
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What does the thread think about this, fake news again or has the first group surrendered? According to the Russians there should be 3000-3500 left so a surrender of 160 soldiers is no game changer.
19:13
Honestly, I have a hard time putting this together, a Russian BTG is around 600 men strong. If there are now 90 in number, that’s 54,000, the rest are probably artillery, rear, maintenance, etc.
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Ukraine’s 10 reserve brigades of mech, armor, airborne and mountain are just those 60,000.
The fact is they have around 25 elite brigades which is a number around 150,000 and then all the rest with a total in maneuver units maybe 300,000. Of course, these are not exact figures but it is in that order of magnitude. And in addition, as much National Guard and other infantry as you want, almost endless.
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This morning we saw someone who formed up the Izyum attack and that is about 10 BTGs when Ukraine just on their flank has maybe 12 BTGs in 3 brigades just waiting. What on earth are the Russians doing? They will be completely swept away as soon as they expose themselves. The Donbass rebels were 100,000 in number or similar but have been driven hard for a month now and then all the other loose ones are nothing to count on, as soon as the TikTok Chechens are exposed to anything other than civilians they will run.
19:30
Yes sorry thread because I just saw that this has already been discussed quite intensively, you are away for a while and something pops up that you have to write about without reading the latest posts, will improve soon.
23:19
Introduce a no-fly zone in SE Ukraine and strike against artillery grouped against Mariupol.
A moderate escalation that might make Mariupol survive if Ukraine can get its mech brigades rolling to break the encirclement.
I understand that air defense must be fought but two days should be enough?
23:28
Has Russia still declared any exercise area in the Sea of Azov?
It’s still not considered a war according to them, so can you sail into Mariupol with an American destroyer and dock at the quay?
What do you get under the bridge at Kerch?
The difficult part will probably be getting the Ukrainians on board…
You have to be able to do something for Mariupol, it bothers me a bit that Ukraine hasn’t attempted a rescue operation but maybe the situation is better than we think.
00:16
The column that Ukraine has knocked out and which is supposed to increase the death toll, could it be the one towards Izyum that was 13 km long?
As is well known, there are 5 brigades waiting on the flank, and could it have been a conventional attack on the column?