11:31
Now I have already praised you for being first on all balls, I will really try to improve 🙂
Today I actually read the thread, started writing but got stuck in two meetings and pressed post without checking the thread again…
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Pro-Russian forums are full of Mariupol’s capitulation now and I am trying to sift through but I BELIEVE it is ONE of the pockets, so there are three areas left in Mariupol that are close to surrendering. We will probably in the coming days see real prisoners of war paraded and pro-Russian debaters triumph, but it is part of the Marines in one of the areas that have then given up.
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There is another fake call with a guy in Mariupol who is supposed to be British but has an American accent and the same with the one he talks to so I think it is fake.
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It actually bothers me a bit that Ukraine has not tried to reach the encirclement, it is something that nags here because it is quite unusual not to try to break the encirclement for something this big. Now even Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive up by Kharkiv, why not the southern front?
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One thought I have had is that Ukraine is a bit sneaky and wants a Pearl Harbor but it is not needed and I do not really believe this myself. What does the thread think is the reason that the mechanized brigades in the area have not made an attempt or that the 10 brigades they have in operational reserve have not been moved to the southern front?
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There is also another alternative, that Ukraine is confident that Azovstal and the port will not fall and that they have time and do not need to take the heavy losses this would entail.
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Question 2 – what do you think the number of defenders has been, pro-Russian forums say 14,000, we guessed 20,000 and on Wikipedia it says 4,000. Pro-Russian forums thought there were 3,000-3,500 left as of yesterday.
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What we can probably agree on is that Mariupol will go down in history books.
12:42
I am bumping the below which is a bit far up and embedded with some questions,
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It actually bothers me a bit that Ukraine has not tried to reach the encirclement, it is something that nags here because it is quite unusual not to try to break the encirclement for something this big. Now even Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive up by Kharkiv, why not the southern front?
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One thought I have had is that Ukraine is a bit sneaky and wants a Pearl Harbor but it is not needed and I do not really believe this myself. What does the thread think is the reason that the mechanized brigades in the area have not made an attempt or that the 10 brigades they have in operational reserve have not been moved to the southern front?
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There is also another alternative, that Ukraine is confident that Azovstal and the port will not fall and that they have time and do not need to take the heavy losses this would entail.
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Question 2 – what do you think the number of defenders has been, pro-Russian forums say 14,000, we guessed 20,000 and on Wikipedia it says 4,000. Pro-Russian forums thought there were 3,000-3,500 left as of yesterday.
14:01
The unit map is updated as soon as they get information that units have been engaged in combat.
If you look at it, there are/were 10 armored, mechanized, airborne, mountain (which is mechanized) in reserve southwest of Kiev and south of Kharkiv.
The three brigades on the western flank of the Izyum offensive have not been used urgently yet.
There is almost unlimited replacement personnel and a lot of equipment has arrived including T72.
I stand by that there is a solid combat power left in Ukraine that is intact and with high combat value but they are prudent and cautious and have no desire to take an area at the cost of 3 brigades in scrap.
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I think the limiting factor here is Russian air power in eastern Ukraine and until the Russians are denied air superiority it is local counteroffensives but infantry assigned to armor that applies, if you put a brigade on the move it can be gone in two hours if you are unlucky.
14:10
I stand by where the brigades are, sure there is some uncertainty but the OSINT guys follow all combat reports and the maps are updated in real time. Absolutely they can be reduced as battalions have been sent to other front sections but that is what we have to work with. If you ask me, Ukraine thinks long term, what happens after the April offensive when the Russians’ mobilization (maybe) starts seriously, okay we need reserves.
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Your answer to question two with a 13-year-old about how many defenders Ukraine had, now you became almost philosophical in your reasoning but if we limit ourselves to the strength in the four brigades that defended Mariupol, what do you think about that 🙂
14:22
Quite telling that the UN and Swedish media talk about 1,700 dead civilian Ukrainians when they have dug up 500 just in Bucha and 20,000 are reported dead in Mariupol.
Sure it is good to quote the UN but who do we think knows best, the mayor of the city that is being wiped out or the UN?
15:47
15:18, very encouraging message from the marine soldiers in Mariupol.
Now there is so much psyops that getting films directly from the defenders who are grinning and look combat-ready is enormously important. Can Mariupol also have a strengthening effect on combat morale in general, “if they can hold out we damn well can fight a while longer”, kind of?
15:55
Have lost the link but this morning’s news was that it has now been concluded that it was corruption that allowed the Russians to advance in the south on the first day, the top hen in Ukraine’s security service down there, the one who was fired, had double-crossed.
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We guessed that quite directly in the thread as they crossed Khakovka already at lunchtime on the first day so there we hit the mark.
20:21
We have two maps to relate to, Militarylands and the OSINT map of Russian units that is updated in bursts. Regarding Militaryland, the units are either in combat or they are in the rear and OSINT has a decent overview of that. Don’t you think that everyone else, ISW, governments etc., comment on roughly the same information?
The exact situation is only known by Ukraine’s military leadership and the Russians’ counterparts but sure we can sit and comment on something the guys at ISW use.
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The numbers, I put somewhere up to 14,000. The National Guard brigade has disappeared, I have also noted that. Wikipedia had 4,000 at the start but if they have 3,000-3,500 left after these battles then up to 14,000 is probably more reasonable.
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I only use the Wikipedia map for captured places though, it seems to be the most conservative.
10:20
Hello, can someone who masters Russian in the thread summarize what is being said?
It is a marine in Mariupol from a legitimate account.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BackAndAlive/status/1513736813956976642