09:27
Maybe not as big a sensation as sinking a Russian warship, but now we know that the 93rd Mechanized Brigade is in a combat zone. They have been a reserve southwest of Kharkiv.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1514346779566911494?cxt=HHwWjMC97eyXhYQqAAAA
09:41
We constantly talk about how our media is interpreted, people look at the article title and then the lead. After that, what is written in the article is irrelevant.
Yesterday we discussed the bungler Michael Clarke who couldn’t be bothered to google Azovstal.
This is how it sounds in pro-Russian media,
“The fall of Mariupol is coming. The countdown should be done not in days, but already in hours” – British military analyst, Professor Michael Clarke”
Exactly EVERYONE who writes, “Kiev Falls,” “big Russian offensive,” “Putin has decided…” etc. contributes to the propaganda, reinforcing Russia’s narrative. Swedish media is completely hopeless with this, and what annoys me is that this propaganda reaches Ukraine, which then googles openly and finds that SVT, SR, etc. have actually written this.
Since the Ukrainian military remains silent, there is a risk that people believe what the West writes, and it becomes demoralizing.
Now it clearly hasn’t turned out that way; the Ukrainians are just angry and combative and will retake the whole country, but the media should be thoroughly scrutinized after this (which of course will not happen…).
09:56
Yes, unfortunately (if Russia cannot be pacified and genuinely tied to the West), it is the attacker who has the advantage of trying to find a method that can yield victory, and the defender tries to anticipate it.
Pretty sure that if Russia gets to retreat and lick its wounds with the current form of government, they will spend all their waking hours on a revenge that works, and then they will be a threat in 10-15 years.
—
However, it’s not a bad idea to make Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states into small Ukraines with a large defense funded by the EU; that will probably get you far (sounds great until Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland join forces with Russia and conquer Europe…).
09:59
After this sinking, all maintenance by sea in the Sea of Azov or the Black Sea is denied to Russia. In fact, they probably do best to send the fleet south in the Black Sea and leave Crimea.
—
Someone wrote in the thread yesterday that the USA will leave target data on Crimea and Donbass to Ukraine.
12:39
Today’s news is that Russia’s Medvedev warns Sweden and Finland against NATO membership, “we will take measures” (one wonders when the air force, army, and navy are burning and bleeding in Ukraine :)).
As usual, when it comes to Russia, people don’t look at the other side of the story, that Russia is trying to wipe out Ukraine and that we therefore need a strong defense and that NATO provides that.
—
In a month, I have changed my mind a lot, I probably thought Ukraine would have to give up quite a bit of land, that Putin might calm down, that Sweden didn’t need to join NATO and that a strong defense was enough.
Now I want a strong EU with Ukraine also fully in NATO 🙂
Then the West will stand strong when China starts rattling its weapons eventually.
12:58
I know Militaryland writes that the offensive is now ready to start, so I guess I have to eat my words 🙂
A few days ago, the Russians launched a couple of big strikes against primary attack targets like Mykolaiv and Donbass, after which I think it has calmed down?
Ukraine continues to blow up supplies in Kherson, Melitopol, Rostov-on-Don (I’d bet a thousand on that), Belgorod, and in Belarus (the Belarusians handle that themselves). They also “drone” relentlessly the Russian columns trying to work their way down to a staging area at Izyum and north of the arc above Horlivka with presumably enormous losses.
—
If the Russians now start something we have to accept as an offensive, it feels like they will crash against the Kharkiv wall quite quickly, get encircled around Izyum before the first week is over, and maybe achieve some local success north of Horlivka since that arc is defended by 10 brigades in all directions, so a local advantage can be achieved (it is frankly embarrassing that Putin has signaled that a local success there is a total victory for Russia).
—
Ukraine has the luxury to choose here; as long as they defend, they can wait for the right moment to strike along an enormous front from Kherson to Kharkiv, and the critical mass is no longer on Russia’s side, so a local counteroffensive can very well become a larger breakthrough where Kherson falls, Izyum is encircled, or the southern front is pushed down to Crimea, and it can happen fast.
—
Until air supremacy is broken, and the air defense umbrella probably starts reaching Kharkiv, I think the model is 3D warfare, long-range artillery, drones, SOF (all of Europe’s SOF :)), and infantry combat with an assigned tank platoon making local offensives where success can be achieved. We have seen mechanized combat on film and they moved well, so if the Russians are denied air supremacy and the heavy brigades can start rolling, it’s probably game over quite fast, but the 3D warfare is going better than expected and will achieve the desired result.
—
I guess there is a big fight on the Ukrainian side about which brigades will participate in combat and which will be held in reserve/hold cities; every unit commander probably wants to get a shot at the Russians before this is over.
13:36
Now I have thought about this again…
Russia wants to try to take Luhansk oblast as well, the arc north of Horlivka, to then be able to freeze the conflict (defend Donbass and Luhansk) and get all their trolls to go up in falsetto and demand peace. Svenska Freds accuses Ukraine of being the aggressor and Jan G cries on TV over wasted Russian boys’ lives, a total circus that Swedish media will above all embrace as absolute truth without the slightest hindsight.
—
How do you deny Putin survival here? The arc north of Horlivka can only be defended through mobile defense combat where in the worst case you give up the entire pocket and cannot retake it before Putin demands peace in our time with the best poker face and freezes the conflict. These things happen quickly, and Western leaders are the best turncoats.
—
Yes, they have moved their heavy reserves toward Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia in recent weeks and have paved the way to knock out Russian air supremacy at the southern front. About the same time Russia takes the pocket north of Horlivka, Ukraine opens the land route to Mariupol and retakes all of Crimea. Russian BTGs in Kherson are encircled and the bridge over Kerch is blown up so everything on Crimea surrenders as Ukraine announces that all units not surrendered before 12:00 XX April will get a shot in the neck on the spot for crimes against humanity.
—
Now Putin has to build a whole new narrative, he has the pocket north of Horlivka but has lost 30 BTGs and all of Crimea. Ukraine will not live off supplies but will turn its brigades northward and the liberation of Donbass can begin. Jan G can’t quite decide whether to cry or not, and Svenska Freds likewise. Is the goal reached and do we want peace or not? Before the Russians recover from the shock of losing Crimea, Donbass is half rolled up from the south and a few days later it’s Swan Lake on TV screens.
—
Timing is everything here; when the Russians are fully engaged with their large offensive against the arc north of Horlivka and the bunker dwarf starts to feel warm enough in his clothes for a pompous TV speech about Greater Russia, Ukraine will probably start at 01:00 one night and have reached Crimea the next day. Well, we’ll see…
17:48
The German nerds who have refused to confront Putin since he started his genocide have now gathered the courage to really get sour on… Zelensky.
He refused to meet the German head of state, so now the Germans are putting their foot down.
Do you think they don’t understand how they are behaving?
17:52
Hungary has also taken a stance against Zelensky. Kind of like kicking those who are already down from the German nerds and Hungary.
20:50
I think I’ve figured out why the Russians claim that Moskva is floating and being towed to dock.
All those responsible, from the commanding officer on Moskva up to the flotilla commander, probably don’t dare to report that she has sunk further up the chain and provide a doctored version, so that is what Russian media has to relate to.
Now many have seen the ship sink/burn/float around aimlessly and that’s probably what we’ll see on the satellite images tomorrow morning 🙂
09:05
Thanks for a good blog post.
Yes, Russian doctrine is obsolete, drones are the new black, and maybe bigger ships in smaller waters are the same advantage for Sweden. Gotland should probably be made into a large coastal fortress with nuclear bomb-proof bunkers that hide mobile missile units in all their forms and quite a few of them. As a second-strike capability, there is the fighter aircraft and missile units on the mainland, and not to forget our corvettes and submarines.