18:07
One would guess that they are trying to follow Russian doctrine here – artillery and then attack in echelons?
There are already reports of fighting along the entire eastern front line, so does that mean the pre-bombardment was midnight – morning?
And then the ground assault has started?
Out of ammunition after a few days of firing?
In WW2 they usually kept it up for at least three days or something to achieve some kind of paralyzing effect on the defense.
—
If the Russians have 80 BTGs in Ukraine and say 20 refuse to advance, 20 are stuck in the Izyum mess and 8 in Kherson, then it would be about 30,000 men + Donbass rebels + TikTok Chechens to defend the southern front and the entire eastern front?
The Donbass rebels have been overused for a month and ethnically Russian BTGs are less and less willing to die so the combat value is even worse than it was a month ago.
—
Ukraine has, at a low estimate, 300,000 men in maneuver brigades and almost unlimited infantry suitable for holding cities, clearing communities or holding flanks, some tanks + a company of infantry.
The combat value is sky-high and they have received quite a lot of new equipment.
—
What I am trying to figure out here is how long it will take before Ukraine has taken back Crimea and Donbass, do you think they will make it by May 9 or is that too optimistic 🙂
One should probably not underestimate the psychological effect of a Ukrainian flag on Sevastopol’s city hall just in time for May 9 but the question is how big the losses would be.
19:55
I want to once again draw your attention to the silence around Kharkiv, this is significant since Kharkiv was among the areas the Russians promised armageddon in. Sure, there has been some artillery fire but no ground assaults as far as I can see.
In the long run this means that Ukraine’s counteroffensive towards Kupiansk can continue I guess because after Malynivka the advance route goes south of the river(s) so they can defend their northern flank with infantry.
16:15
Already yesterday the Russians had pressed from Kreminna towards Zyrichnye and now there are somewhat different reports on who is standing in the square in Zyrichnye?
—
Worth keeping in mind here is that the natural obstacle lies further west as we said yesterday, so in the worst case they get stuck at the Donetske river and the likelihood that they will be able to link up with the offensive at Izyum remains low.