10:58
This message the blog posted from Mariupol bothers me a bit because it’s the same rhetoric that the Marine Brigade had before they retreated into Azovstal. We saw pictures of sections of Azovstal yesterday and it is a veritable seven-story fortress built during the Cold War with exits everywhere, and Azov carried out fire raids on DPR rebels as recently as yesterday, so they are still conducting mobile combat in the area around Azovstal.
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Does this mean that the Russians have had success with their bunker busters? I can jump up and down all I want and accuse them of cheating, but they get away with this anyway. Their damn TOS-1 and bunker busters have a greater destructive effect than a tactical nuclear weapon…
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Now the hope is probably that part of Azovstal has been bombed away and that there are defenders left in other parts of the complex because the Russians’ spring offensive is already starting to fall apart and a counteroffensive on the southern front can’t be far off.
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Or maybe the US has a little plan here to arrange a UN evacuation where they go in with ships and evacuate Mariupol (quite unlikely and probably in the realm of the unreasonable).
11:02
Now there will probably be a serious attempt on the southern front as well, if we have guessed right here in our speculations, the attack wedge should roughly follow the border of Donetsk oblast 🙂
The positive thing is that Ukraine might be able to break it and go on the counteroffensive fairly soon and push down to Mariupol but we’ll see…
11:20
I wouldn’t have done that and you are absolutely right, perfect terrain for defense up there with a lot of tactical flank protection.
Yesterday I was thinking about whether the Russians would cut off the entire offensive against Kupiansk by striking a wedge east of Kharkiv, but Ukraine seems to be a few steps ahead. It is a very well-supported counteroffensive where they use natural obstacles in the terrain to their advantage and a strategic goal in Kupiansk.
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That’s more than you can say about the potato fields the bunker dwarf is currently conquering in the pocket/bow north of Horlivka just to be able to say on May 9 that they have taken what they came for – Donetsk and Luhansk oblast.
11:25
This spring offensive is such a big joke that Western media are starting to spread the claim that it hasn’t really started yet, it’s just a “reconnaissance offensive” or something like that.
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The truth is that the Russians have retreated from Kharkiv because they don’t even have the resources for that and what we are now seeing is the best they could achieve with a forced timetable and it is basically no breakthrough anywhere.
11:42
I’m starting to feel that it’s about time to put an end to this shitty war in the worst possible way for Putin so that Russia collapses like a house of cards, the country must be ready for a color revolution after this and there is no reason to let them lick their wounds and prepare for round two. Everything Russia is doing aims to bring down Europe, same with China. The EU + USA should start seriously fighting Russia with economic means and if China chooses the wrong side, them too. This should be backed up with a strong defense so that every attempt at a new Ukraine ends the same way. We will definitely get another war in Asia before this is over but then this might have been our time’s world war because a sleeping EU is slowly waking up now. We have a shitload to deal with in our countries too because as the democracies we are, we let China and Russia run wild with influence operations that for example have led to an energy crisis that is completely self-inflicted and major conflicts between ethnic groups and none of this would have had to happen if we had a sensible view of what Russia and China really are – an active enemy.
We are incredibly lucky that Russia crashed in Ukraine and that our eastern border is held by strong countries that have not gambled and disarmed their defenses. The Finns and Poles would have defended themselves just as hard and the Baltics would have done the best they could. One must also thank the USA for relentlessly defending the free world despite all the crap they get.
11:43
Throw Hungary out of the EU, that should send a strong enough signal to other pro-Russian elements in the EU.
11:56
The world is constantly complaining that Ukraine is not getting enough armor and aircraft to withstand the Russian offensive and that it’s too little too late.
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The truth is probably that Ukraine will withstand the Russian offensive perfectly well and that the aircraft and armor now arriving are not for defense but for Ukraine to build up for a counteroffensive to take back Donbass and Crimea, everything is going according to plan. If they get in 150-200 Mig29s, they can deny Russia air superiority together with air defense and then Ukraine’s mechanized and armored brigades can start fighting the battle they are built for.
11:57
To retake Crimea, the Russian fleet needs to be removed and the UK is working on that,
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-april-per-boris-johnson-the-uk-is-looking-at-the-possibility
16:30
I don’t know if the thread has posted this yet but the units that attacked and took Kreminna were INFANTRY, Chechens and LPR rebels. So it was not Russian BTGs participating in the offensive but infantry without armored support.
Sure, maybe I’m completely fooled by myself and tomorrow the real offensive will start but I think this is all we will see this time (soon).
16:41
This is downright embarrassing, there have been small skirmishes for a couple of days and then a night of apocalyptic artillery before they run out of ammunition. After that Lavrov declares that “now the final battle for Donbass has started” and in two days the only success is that some TikTok Chechens and LPR rebels have found an unguarded path and managed to outflank the Ukrainian defense of a locality and post videos of themselves standing in front of the bus station 🙂
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Pro-Russian forums have basically only mentioned Kreminna and Popasna and the Izyum offensive and regarding the Izyum offensive, no captured localities but only that it is the Ural Shock Brigade killing Ukrainians by the thousands.
If I were in the Russian military leadership I would seriously consider a career change because it is hardly possible to be this incompetent. They have hyped this offensive incredibly in recent weeks and that out of consideration for Ukrainian children’s lives they will only take Donbass 🙂
19:29
Yes, we wrote a few days ago that it was getting tight for the defenders of the port and that the Russians had pushed a wedge between the port and Azovstal. Very encouraging that there is such camaraderie that they sacrifice themselves for other units here, go Azov and Go Ukraine, now there are probably a few hundred more defenders of the Azovstal fortress.
19:43
Lots of talk about nuclear weapons now in the thread when scrolling around, have I missed something?
Actually detonating a nuclear weapon, tactical or larger, must surely have a declared purpose that it will lead to victory, you don’t just pull that as a last middle finger in the air when sinking?
To reach a decisive outcome in Ukraine you probably need to drop at least a dozen and here the USA must surely be really alert?
Trying to bomb cities in Europe, isn’t there a patriot along the entire Russian border?
I don’t believe in nuclear weapons but Putin has surprised every day so far so maybe he continues with that and fires a few to see how it goes?
22:44
There is quite a big discussion in the thread right now about there being too much positive tone. I have enough self-awareness to understand that I belong to the top 3 in the thread of extremely positive-thinking keyboard warriors 🙂
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I want to remind that a little over a month ago everyone said Kiev would fall within two days, then that they would take Kiev eventually, then that the Russian offensive had stalled but that Ukraine would have a really hard time retaking terrain, then that a major Russian offensive would come that would surely give Ukraine the fight of its life and that’s about where we are now?
Right now the Bunker Dwarf is trying to take a few hectares of land at astronomical losses in the wilderness in eastern Ukraine just so he can hold a victory speech on May 9th… the attack plan is to try to encircle Donbass by moving along the Donbass Oblast provincial border which is about what you could expect from a five-year-old in planning.
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This is something I think we must keep in mind and that is that Russia is bleeding manpower and materiel in idiotic offensives that they cannot restore while Ukraine gets/has more materiel and manpower than they can put into maneuver units and attacks like the smartest Rommel. The critical mass was passed a while ago, Ukraine can withstand any Russian attack anywhere and at the same time counterattack elsewhere. Russia can only carry out attacks in a couple of places and is increasingly struggling to defend itself elsewhere.
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A big signal here was that the Russians never attacked around Kharkiv and that Ukraine has continued to take communities north of Kharkiv. They of course know exactly how Russian troop movements look and would not have made their counterattacks if there were 30 BTGs ready to throw themselves over Kharkiv. Russia has thus also left a walkover at Kharkiv.
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Sure, we will reach a point where even Putin has to stop and try to consolidate captured terrain but until May 9th he will whip his commanders incredibly and they are currently wasting units they don’t have.
Izyum is a scale that will end with 20 BTGs encircled, Kherson probably 8 BTGs stuck.
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Quick math, 80 – 30 is 50 BTGs x max 1000 men (high estimate) that is 50,000 men who must try to withstand a Ukrainian army of maybe 300,000 in maneuver brigades and an almost infinite number in infantry that is good for flank protection and holding cities. Russian combat value is crap and Ukrainian soldiers’ combat value is at absolute top.
Forget DPR and LPR and the TikTok Chechens when it heats up for real, they have already been worn out.
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Materiel – Ukraine has received 200-300 T72s of which a not insignificant number have night fighting equipment and they have light amplifiers for infantry and are used to fighting in the dark. They have received a large number of Mig29s and have knocked out much Russian air defense + Moskva. Long-range artillery, smart ammunition and air defense are pouring in. They have prepared for a serious counteroffensive.
The Russians are starting to field unmodernized T72s built in the 70s and BMP-1s. If the T34 pictures are genuine it would be really embarrassing but they must be fake, I refuse to believe otherwise.
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The Russians are throwing in everything they have because Putin demands results. Sure, Crimea and Donbass are not easy to conquer but what the hell are the Russians supposed to do? All fixed defensive positions will be knocked out with smart artillery ammunition and drones over time, a buried tank is a coffin in today’s 3D environment. The fleet cannot defend Crimea because Ukraine has anti-ship missiles. They will slowly deny the Russians air superiority and so far they have fought the Russians with infantry assigned a tank platoon and they have 25 heavy brigades that they haven’t worn out. Their SOF behind Russian lines is wreaking havoc and supply depots go up in flames daily. It’s like a wild whack-a-mole Russia has no chance to knock down before it pops up somewhere else.
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There is not the slightest chance that the Russians can hold Donbass and Crimea because the Ukrainian steamroller is basically unstoppable. Putin can choose to deploy nuclear weapons but I don’t think anyone points a middle finger while sinking even if they are Putin, you do it to try to win. Then Putin could be misinformed or choose to go down in his own style but that is so irrational that we shouldn’t even factor it in, the day it happens we will deal with it.
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These were my two cents for today’s discussion about not being too positive 🙂
22:56
Then to the western SOF, whether they are veterans, volunteers, or active SOF, there are many thousands of special forces from Europe and the USA behind the Russians’ lines causing trouble. My guess is that all of Europe sent in their SOF in large numbers when the International Legion opened for applications. Add Ukraine’s own and you probably have 10,000 soldiers fighting the war of freedom, if not more, conducting ambushes on columns and supply depots daily.
10:23
I think it’s time to establish that the Russians’ claims that they would attack Kharkiv were a maskirovka.
They have lightly bombed the city just for show but there are no reports of an attack on Kharkiv.
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The fact is that Ukraine has quietly taken Staryi Saltiv, which is southeast of Kharkiv, and this is confirmed on Wikipedia.
Simply put, they now control all the terrain west of Malynivka, which did not have a river as flank protection to the north.
East of Malynivka, the offensive against Kupiansk is protected on the northern flank by a river(s) that can be defended with a screen of infantry and assigned armor, so the mechanized brigade and armored brigade can advance towards Kupiansk.
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According to reports, the Russians are pressing south of Izyum with their traffic jam of 20 BTG or whatever it might be.
Borova still seems contested but the significant thing about Borova is that the road leads to Kupiansk…
Exactly where Ukraine is is a bit unclear, but the advance is along P07 at a moderate pace with flank protection to the north, and if you ask me, there is really no rush. Let the Izyum offensive wear itself out before taking Kupiansk, that’s probably not a bad idea?
If they don’t take Kupiansk, it’s enough to be +30 km from the supply routes with their artillery.
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Anyway, the Russians did not have the resources to strike Kharkiv again, which is significant, and Ukraine is positioning itself to take Kupiansk, which will cut off all supplies to the chaos-Russians down in Izyum, and then the 20 BTG are stuck.
If they try to get north, the 7th Tank Brigade and 25th Airborne Brigade will hit them in the western flank.
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We can write off these 20 BTG already now, it’s only a matter of time here if one dares to be a little cautiously optimistic, though I must admit I have been nagging about Kupiansk for three weeks and nothing has happened 🙂