09:37
The post was meant to stand on its own but it went wrong if you find my reply to your comment a bit strange B.Fischer.
09:44
There is too much chatter about Gerasimov because nothing has happened. Either he is scattered out in a potato field in Ukraine or he has fled the field and gone back to Moscow, wounded or unharmed, after two days.
The above actually doesn’t matter because he doesn’t lead from the front and every soldier in Izyum knows that by now.
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The other thing to take away is that Ukraine/USA easily find larger staffs along the entire front and that they have real-time target data so they hit the staff meetings themselves and in Gerasimov’s case, there were reportedly 20 dead and 20 wounded, so not a small gathering. The same applied at Kherson, right?
If you ask me, battalion commanders were present at these meetings and Russian soldiers are not exactly known for their initiative and problem-solving skills?
11:09
If you see the signs with the same mega-positive glasses as me, the USA is paving the way for an Iraq war here.
They have brought in hardware that can strike precisely deep behind enemy lines but is not shot down – long-range artillery with smart ammunition and they have such good real-time reconnaissance that they can wait for staff meetings to start in order to strike them.
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They start with high-value targets like logistics and staffs and move on to air defenses, air defense radars, artillery, and missile carriers. A little idea I’ve had here is that you don’t need to fight the Russian air force Iraq-style but a air defense umbrella denying them eastern Ukraine is enough. Ukraine’s air force is not needed either since artillery and drones handle the role the air force had in the Iraq war.
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Now they also manage to strike rear logistics deep inside Russia which is somewhat fantastic, a mix of popular discontent and Ukrainian sabotage I guess, high-value targets for Ukraine and fires in fuse boxes angry citizens. The railways are doing so-so right now and are Russia’s only way to get materiel to the war from far behind the front.
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Step two is massive infiltration of SOF for the guerrilla war and if you ask me, every SOF in the West is now in Ukraine as volunteers after having resigned (on paper). At the southern front, national battalions have been moved up which should be excellent for some guerrilla warfare.
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At the same time, Ukraine is building up offensive reserves in a couple of places, they have enough at Kherson to sweep away Russian presence, enough to tie up the sack at Kupiansk and have probably learned from Kiev that when the Russians get a feeling and drive north at 90 km/h, you need to have something to take them out with. That is what the two heavy brigades waiting on the western flank of the Izyum offensive are for. Then they build up at the southern front for an attempt against Melitopol probably. The critical mass is now in Ukraine’s favor, they can defend the entire front and build up for a counteroffensive at weak points.
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Step three is that when the Russians run out of positive thinking and want to start digging in where they stand, smart artillery will punch holes in the defensive lines. Fixed positions are graves and you can probably quite quickly remove a dug-in BTG once you have brought enough artillery. Maybe they have saved switchblade and ghost drones for that, for example, probably at least a few thousand?
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As soon as there is a hole somewhere, Ukraine now has the capacity for night fighting and can make larger advances at night and then they probably go on defense during the day with an air defense umbrella until the Russian air force learns not to fly over the border. There is absolutely nothing the Russians can do about this and they will be ground down quite fast Iraq-war style.
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Crimea is exciting because when the bridge over Kerch is gone and Ukraine presses from the north, the fighting spirit will probably dive like a sperm whale hunting for squid and they will surrender quite quickly. The Russian navy may not withstand the pressure and will try to interfere but that can only end like Moscow. North of Horlivka can probably be cleared quite quickly and then it will take time with Donbass but the Donbass rebels are completely exhausted now and can probably after this accept EU membership.
Donbass will probably become a hunting ground for SOF until they are worn out enough to be retaken by maneuver brigades.
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I don’t think May 9 is important for Ukrainian planning in any way but they will start when they are ready and at the earliest when the Russians go on defense. They probably shouldn’t wait too long because reinforcements are trickling in and if the Russians switch to defense, they start digging in deeply and the chance of a quick collapse decreases.
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When the Russians are out of Ukraine, they must be denied re-entry and that is probably best done with an artillery corridor along the entire front, all Russian units trying to come within 30-40 km of the border are shot away immediately.
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Above is my game plan, everything else like – revolution on May 9 when 10,000 soldiers take the Kremlin, Putin dies of cancer, Belgorod is the cradle of the revolution and what else is of course exciting speculation but I see it as completely realistic that the USA is paving the way for an Iraq war here. The aftermath should be that the EU+USA now realize that it was not possible to just have fair trade agreements and be democratic with Russia as after 1989 but now a real denazification and deprogramming is needed or the country will be broken up into its provinces/republics so a future threat won’t be worse than if Italy gets a feeling.
12:07
Two jokers – has Russia brought up reserves that we do not know about beyond the 20,000 – 30,000 we know of and these somewhat battered 80-90 BTGs?
The other is that if the thread can figure out how the war will go, the Russian military should not be far behind, the question is of course how hard the whip is cracking and how far along they are in their thinking but the will to live is usually quite strong in most and now it is probably virtually all units involved in the war that have had combat experience and it has not gone well anywhere, everyone thinks the war sucks. When will they take matters into their own hands…
12:10
I have had to revise my view of Russian warfare quite significantly over the past two months and am of the opinion that when it comes time to go on the defensive, it will be quite a few shallow pits for the tank and a couple of shallow trenches. Ukraine is clearing out quite effectively up in Kharkov among buried Russian units. Then it is my strong belief that it does not matter how deep they dig because death comes with targeting from above and today they have no protection against it.
The drones are starting to have some problems, but the Russians simply cannot shoot down guided artillery shells, it’s impossible.
12:14
Yes, dividing up Russia is probably the furthest away option, the US has probably tried to get old constituent republics that are strategically located to join NATO so there is an unbroken NATO border against Russia and maybe it ends there?
It is not an easy task to do anything about Russia either, so maybe the answer is to sanction them back to Tsarist times until they are no longer a threat.
China is probably interested in Russia as a raw material colony and does not follow the West’s will, so the outcome is definitely not certain.
12:18
There is always a desire to downplay the US role in defending the free world.
If the US had not led the buildup of Ukraine’s army since 2014 and commanded this war, today we would be facing a new Russian puppet republic, half of Southeastern Europe would have sworn allegiance to Putin, and he would have started preparing for Poland and the Baltics.
I am very grateful for the US’s role in world politics and that we get to live a calm and pleasant life in Sweden and don’t have to worry about when the FSB will knock on the door for a ticket to the mobile crematorium.
15:17
Near Kiev, the Russians tried to sneak out 700 vehicles with presumably very heavy losses just before the encirclement was completed, they laid a pontoon bridge east of Ivankiv and withdrew on small roads. This suggests they are not completely stuck but understood that they would soon be done for and carried out what I think was a pretty neat retreat, driving like car thieves straight north. The videos we saw were long strings of burning tanks.
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They have roughly the same distance to cover up to Kupiansk from Izyum and probably some flank protection as well as rear defense of Kupiansk. Now there were 20 BTGs on the way down towards Izyum so they may have assigned a couple as flank protection to the west. If I may guess, the mechanized brigade has halted to avoid attracting too much Russian attention and they probably hope the whip cracks enough that all focus is on the advance down at Izyum. We know there are around 20-25 BTGs down there in the traffic jam and exactly where the other 20 are on the map is unclear but a large part has certainly been sent down there. Bigger fish than those that slipped away in Kiev, in other words.
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Ukraine has learned the lesson and is already today within 50 km of Kupiansk. They seem to be letting one mechanized and infantry brigade clean up around Kharkov and the other mechanized brigade has stopped at Vasylenkove or something, so it does not signal any urgency to move towards Kupiansk. Right now it seems the Russians are rolling down what they have available towards Izyum to please the bunker dwarf.
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There are four bridges over the Oskil river on the way up to Kupiansk: Borova, Senkove, Osynovo, and north of that.
Inside Kupiansk, there are two bridges over the Oskil river and it also seems possible to put pontoon bridges in several places.
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Simply put, if Ukraine presses too hard towards Kupiansk, the Russians will just retreat north, if the Russians start to retreat, Ukraine must cover the same distance under fire to deny them a retreat route, so here Ukraine really needs to think 3D. Without alarming the Russians, they must start preparing mining, ambushes, and fixed artillery targets so that when they try to retreat north, they get stuck in a quagmire of mines and NLAW. All the bridges over the Oskil river must almost be blown up and as soon as a pontoon bridge is being built, blow it up.
When the retreating vehicles get stuck in mines, drones and smart artillery swarm over them like a locust swarm.
The artillery is grouped under the protection of the 25th Airborne and 93rd Mechanized.
Maybe the Ukrainian Air Force makes a guest appearance.
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The Russians cannot read these preparations, but they can understand if a brigade is about to take Kupiansk.
They will not catch everything but the refugees will be heavily decimated when they eventually reach Kupiansk after that gauntlet.
18:58
If one may be a bit conspiratorial, the US has been working hard to get demonstrations against the war going on May 9th.
Preferably something visible, maybe a banner from a building. It is a perfect opportunity to set a little fire to the powder keg and see if anything happens.
00:34
(Sitting and writing a report so a bit late).
Militaryland update is very interesting because they have run out of offensive power at Popasna where they have pushed in quite a few BTGs. The consequence of this is that the southern front weakens, I thought all BTGs from Mariupol reinforced at Vuhledar but no.
We all know what Ukraine is planning for the southern front with two artillery brigades and SOF in abundance 🙂
The pro-Russian mayor in Melitopol probably has a pretty short career.
“The fighting continues in Rubizne and Popasna. Russian army has reportedly transferred units from Mariupol to the area of Sievoerodonetsk and Popasna to reinforce the attacking force.”
00:37
According to pro-Russian media, a Ukrainian force of 1000 soldiers is trapped in Liman.
I don’t have more on that and gladly welcome info.
We can probably assume it is more like 300 if they are trapped at all and haven’t just gone on the defensive…
09:36
In lack of anything else to discuss, one might as well start the day with an observation on Militaryland’s unit map,
At Zaporoznye West and East of the Dnieper, the 55th Artillery Brigade and 19th Rocket Brigade have been deployed forward, a wild guess is that they now have long-range and smart ammunition. If anyone still didn’t believe Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive in that area 🙂
No direct increase in offensive capability but a couple of national battalions are now along the southern front, maybe to infiltrate and strike the rear to harass the Russians a bit before the offensive starts.
I also find Militaryland’s daily update quite conservative and without the wildest speculations.