11:20
I’m backing Thorwall, KLASA, and Erik14 here,
Since we are about to witness the Iraq War 2003 all over again, it’s just a matter of seeing where we are in time and letting history guide our analysis.
-Reports that 80% of the towed howitzers are now deployed (I’m running a bit ahead, the report was that they had arrived). Pro-Russian sources say that drones shoot down 10-20-30 per day, so Ukraine clearly has plenty of drones to really sprinkle around here (maybe they count suicide drones as shot down 🙂 )
-They took out the highest value targets first, the staffs, and now they are taking out the artillery – 26 knocked out in one day is very high and this is the rear.
-It’s almost calm on the fronts, no direct attacks but Russia has lost 62 IFVs and tanks, they are being knocked out where they stand in defense from above.
-We know that almost all Polish T72s had night combat equipment and the US has sent I don’t know how many image intensifiers. Where Ukraine chooses to go on the offensive, a couple of brigades have full night combat capability.
12:24
The Izyum offensive has completely stalled, they are mostly fighting among themselves in one big traffic jam down there and as soon as they try to move in any direction it’s forest or open fields and shooting range. The command is knocked out, probably also the battalion commanders and their Chief of Staff is either scattered over a potato field or has fled the field. One would like to be a fly on the wall there and see the chaos with one’s own eyes.
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Yesterday we discussed the Kupiansk offensive and that a Russian retreat must be slowed with mines and fire ambushes and then swarm the columns with drones and artillery – probably exactly what the plan is. They will not be able to close the bag with the brigade advancing towards Kupiansk because as soon as the Russians smell encirclement they will drive north like car thieves and the mech brigade cannot go east as it is engaged in combat.
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Down at the southern front we know that the Russians have moved BTGs up to Popasna and Severodonetsk and weakened it further and that Ukraine has moved forward three national battalions for the free war and two artillery brigades. The mech brigade probably has equipment for night combat and will alone be able to exploit the breakthroughs created by artillery and SOF, there is surely something else brigade-sized there that we don’t know about. Melitopol…
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At Kherson not much is happening and Ukraine probably has 3:1 or more there so it’s just a matter of the right moment.
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Putin seems to be choosing war on May 9, that’s the impression one gets. This actually suits the free world very well because then we avoid the whole discussion about de-escalation and Ukraine can focus on wiping out the Russian army. I would have thought they would try to freeze the conflict and withdraw but it seems too far gone in that country, like a damn locust swarm straight over the cliff.
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Something that has not happened and that I was/am quite sure would happen was that Poland took over the guard duty at the border with Belarus. They have started military exercises with a couple of brigades and have until May 9 if Russia chooses war and now it is May 3. One would think the risk of escalation and provocation is irrelevant when Russia escalates to the max all the time over nothing.
12:57
The reason the national battalions, three in number, that have now been sent to the southern front took time is that they have been equipped with image intensifiers and portable drones one must assume.
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The same reason the two artillery brigades were moved forward late, they now have towed howitzers and guided ammunition.
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I will close the account if there isn’t another mech brigade up by Zaporizhzhia that has been in reserve and now has T72s with night combat equipment. The 59th Mechanized, which is defending at the southern front, has probably been hard to upgrade as it is in constant combat contact.
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If they get the chance, Ukraine will push towards Melitopol and start pressing from the west towards the bridges at Khakovka and Kherson. They will not really try to take them but mostly make sure the Russians try to retreat back across the Dnipro and then all Ukrainian brigades west of the Dnipro can strike when the traffic jam starts and the shooting range can begin.
17:37
I think everyone here will sit down in front of the May 9 parade in Moscow and try to interpret the slightest sign.
There is an almost incredible range of possible outcomes here, full war and mobilization, the army revolts with 10,000 soldiers on site, Ukrainian assassination, popular uprising or protests, Putin gets a bullet in the forehead and what else.
17:38
Another possibility is that the Russians will get drunk on May 9 and that Ukraine will roll forward at 01:00 on May 10.
20:22
It is very telling that now this is supposed to be the absolute highlight of the Russian spring offensive where they are putting everything into achieving their combat goals by May 9 and the thread mostly talks about other things and some Ukrainian counteroffensive up by Kharkiv.
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I want to clarify my “Iraq War all over again”, right now it is the timing when the US started its pre-bombardment. Instead of three weeks of air strikes, it’s smart long-range artillery and drones. They took out the air defenses first, here they take out staffs and artillery first. In this war Ukraine’s air force is not needed for ground targets, they only need to deny the Russians airspace with a hell of a lot of air defenses.
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Instead of an all-out armored assault, it is SOF and brigades with night combat capability that rampage at night and defend during the day with an air defense umbrella while artillery and drones buzz over the Russians like a swarm of bees.
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You get no prize for guessing that the Russians are the Iraqis and the road up from Izyum or Kherson will probably be this war’s highway from Kuwait. The strongest similarity is that the Russians are completely hopeless against Western weapons here, Ukraine/USA see everything they do in real time and can calmly remove all targets they have on a list in descending order and in the end it’s individual tanks in defense that go down. The last piece of the puzzle was the 3-5 staffs in under two weeks. Being able to take them out during the staff meeting itself requires such a comprehensive information superiority that it’s almost disturbing and they haven’t only been spying on the staffs, all high-value targets are known by coordinates and followed in real time. If Google Maps can see what’s in Russian tank depots you can guess what the US’s best spy satellites are capable of…
They even know which brand of cigarettes Gerasimov smoked when he looked up at the incoming guided artillery shell and for a few seconds really hoped it wasn’t meant for him.
20:29
It has probably been mentioned before here in the thread and the consequences are directly unpredictable but now there should be artillery with range up to the spectator stands on Red Square where the cream of the Russian villain elite will let the Red Army parade past them. Hardly a better opportunity to cause chaos.
I don’t know exactly how rocket-propelled ammunition differs from artillery shells but the former are hard to shoot down.
Do you think Putin et al. will really stand packed like sardines along the balcony (or whatever you call it) in the biggest target since Moscow and Gerasimov and Kherson airport (the Russians have really been humiliated so far…)
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I also can’t help but think that these 10,000 parading soldiers know that next month they will die in Ukraine so second best might be to try for a Russian revolution but we probably won’t get that much fun.
20:51
There is also a little Hiroshima bomb analogy with this war. I don’t remember which was dropped first but the second bomb, Nagasaki(?), was actually not meant for the Japanese but to show the Russians that if they didn’t behave there were more.
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The bigger Russia’s loss here is, the harder the message is hammered home to China about how badly things can go if you raise your hand against the wrong country. Right now China’s best generals are watching in real time how a small country in their eyes manages to humiliate Russia and comparing the list with what the USA can muster and the Chinese are by no means as far gone as Russia has clearly been. They very much want to continue with their villain dictatorship as it is I guess.
21:19
20:40 – now even the biggest pessimists must see that Iraq War 2.0 has begun 🙂
There are two artillery brigades south of Zaporozhye and if you take out/about 40 targets in one day including staff and three ammunition depots then it is practically a slaughter and only a matter of time before the Russians try to flee east of the Dnieper.
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I was sitting thinking about the number of barrels with insanely long range and Ukraine has received hundreds of guns that shoot smart ammunition and every shot is a hit + more ammunition than they can use in a lifetime. There are not too many targets in a Russian BTG and you should be able to shoot one away in a day or so if you get up early, work diligently and don’t waste time with coffee breaks. It is mostly the target data that will be decisive but around Kherson the Russians have gone on the defensive and Russian-style means dig a hole and stay in it so the USA has calmly been able to give the Ukrainian artillery all target coordinates down to individual soldiers in the foxholes writing on Telegram. Then you probably have to try to take out all vehicles relatively simultaneously so the others don’t have time to flee in all directions and become harder to defeat.
21:26
I forgot maintenance above which was a bit embarrassing…
21:34
We will have a very interesting month(s) ahead because now every Ukrainian brigade with a bit of self-respect has learned to post drone videos of their battles nicely edited and soundtracked with the latest from the Ukrainian music scene.
If they do drone flyovers and we get panoramic views of mechanized combat, almost nothing else in life will be needed after that 🙂
Every Ukrainian with a social media account will soon post everything they can because when it is forward and the Russians retreat there is nothing left to protect and then it is full PR and show that you are winning.
21:38
This is probably when one should say something about popcorn but I never learned that..
22:45
Russia is desperately trying to strike at the Ukrainian buildup now, the targets are supply depots and hubs but I think it is too late since much of the artillery and tanks have already been deployed.
Then if I remember WW2 movies correctly, you also continuously replenish the units at the front with reserves and Ukraine is probably doing that too, there is no shortage of capable soldiers who want a chance to fight immediately.
11:12
Just like with Moscow, the Russians can always debunk Ukraine by having Gerasimov appear on live TV and let everyone know that he is doing very well. Now, at best, he will probably manage to stay upright at the parade on May 9 with a bit of luck.
My money is still on him being dead.