08:53
New low point from Russia, one almost thought that “jxxxr are naxxxxer” would win that prize but now Ukraine is accused of black magic.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521727524069416962?s=20&t=l_O8Npz9NSjde637cPDIaA
09:58
The order of battle map LW links to is very exciting and, I believe, accurate because it is so insanely difficult to piece together the Russians’ BTGs on the other maps.
-93 BTGs for the Russians
-27 heavy maneuver brigades at the front lines for Ukraine so around 108 BTGs in total. (I consider that quite a few brigades have an extra battalion but not all). Armor, motorized, mech, mountain, airborne.
-not counting several National Guard brigades and territorial defense and national battalions defending cities on the front line and also certain front sections.
– add to that 10 mech/armor/airborne/jäger/marine brigades that protect the northern front, down by Odessa or are in reserve, I think 6 of them can be counted as reserve – uncertain, I know.
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At Kherson there are 5 Ukrainian brigades (I want to believe 6) x 4 so a total of 24 BTGs and against that the Russians have a pathetic 7 BTGs. It can only go one way, 3:1. There are also 4 maneuver brigades in reserve at Odessa, Mykolaiv and one further south.
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I had Zaporozhye at 11 BTGs but it is 13 BTGs, it stood at 6 BTGs down at Mariupol for quite a while and now reports that some BTGs have been moved over to Popasna. They are pressing mainly at Zelena Pole and Vuhledar so exactly where the 59th Mechanized, the artillery brigade and 3 national battalions stand at Vasylivka – Olikhiv is a weak point. Also the free war on steroids behind the southern front so they probably have to allocate some to protect the little supply they have left I guess.
Considering the strength advantage at Kherson and that there are reserves, I am convinced that there is a newly equipped brigade with night fighting capability up at Zaporozhye that can reinforce the 59th Mechanized but that is just my guess.
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What you must take away from the map is the following – north of Izyum – Severodonetsk there are 46 BTGs (I guessed 50) and they cannot reinforce any other front and at Kherson there are 7 BTGs who just haven’t realized they are dead yet.
There are thus a pathetic 40 BTGs left to defend the southern front, Donbass and Crimea (also the Donbass rebels but they are pretty worn out as they have been first since day 1).
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Of the 40 at the southern front – Donbas is pressing very hard against Popasna, at least 6 BTGs and reinforcements on the way.
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Addition is that we in the thread believe that a not insignificant number of these Russian BTGs have suffered heavy losses and are not at full strength, in some cases knocked out or low combat value. Ukraine’s maneuver brigades are replenished with reserves over time (and I base that on the fact that they did so during WW2 in all the films I’ve seen…), they might be a bit weak on armor here and there but manage well with what they have and have largely maintained combat value. Russian BTGs at Kherson and Izyum certainly have a shortage of battalion commanders now 🙂
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The weak points are at Kherson and south of Zaporozhye. From there they will take Crimea fairly quickly and roll up Donbass from the south.
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There is nothing on that map that speaks in Russia’s favor and now we absolutely see the first phase of the Iraq war playing out here. What comes first, collapse at Kherson, Melitopol or wild flight from Izyum is probably mostly chance because it looks equally dangerous everywhere for the Russians.
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What the US has done is ensured that Ukraine conserves its maneuver brigades so that when the Russians have retreated across the border there is an intact army to occupy the entire border and deny the Russians re-entry in a third round after 3-6 months if they should think of it. Ukraine is somewhat incredible in their warfare here, patience like the worst Buddhist monks despite enormous provocations and weighs loss against gain every time. As soon as an opening comes they are there hacking at it and put no prestige at all in making tactical retreats because then they are back like weasels at night again and retake everything the Russians just conquered at great losses.
10:26
After going through the blog’s excellent lineup of Russian and Ukrainian units at the front lines, I actually start to wonder if Poland even needs to enter and occupy the northern border against Belarus?
Even if they did, Ukraine would have had to handle all the fighting and as it looks now they manage this brilliantly entirely on their own.
The Russian spring offensive is basically over and now Ukraine is starting the pre-battle and official statements are somewhat confident of victory.
10:30
In the beginning it was said that the Russians had their communication via radio masts and during the first weeks of the war they shot down all radio masts in Ukraine. We heard that they called each other on the phone or had unencrypted radio communication and the big staff meetings that Ukraine shot down indicate that they almost only can convey orders on paper to each other and must be seen in person.
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Starlink seems to have solved Ukraine’s communication but they also have radio communication down to the group level I have seen so normally functioning western communication basically. Then they have access to all US signals intelligence and eyes from above which, if you ask me, saw what cigarette brand Gerasimov smoked when he looked up at the incoming artillery shell. It is rumored that they have given Ukraine access to everything and then set up an analysis unit in Lviv that basically in real time gives Ukraine targeting data.
10:43
What the Russian commander has missed is that the artillery brigades around Kherson have guided ammunition so instead of the old favorite “wipe out a kilometer square” the only thing that will explode in Kherson are Russian targets. At best you get to repaint some facades.
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Have thought a lot about the bridges over the Dnieper here MRF for Ukraine can cut them if they want. Maybe they want to keep them to be able to roll over the Dnieper with the dozen maneuver brigades that are in the area?
Against that speaks that they can roll over the Dnieper up at Zaporozhye just as well.
I actually have no idea to be honest, the only thing that seems crystal clear is that these 7 BTGs are very badly positioned with a river at their back 🙂
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Addition here is that the figure 25,000 has circulated so it can be Rosgvardia, logistics, rear, artillery and all sorts of other things because Kherson is a staging area for an offensive against Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv and they have certainly loaded up heavily with rear for continued offensive in the area.
11:12
It’s time, I have always considered that we manage with a strong defense but the problem is that neutrality has opened the door to disarm the defense since we are supposed to meet a Russian invasion with flowers and hand hearts.
NATO denies the peace activists the possibility to give Sweden to Russia without a fight and the free world is not safe due to Russia’s crushing defeat, if the West stands strong going forward the thug dictatorships will keep in line, if not this will repeat.
08:53
New low point from Russia, one almost thought that “Jews are Nazis” would win that prize but now Ukraine is accused of black magic.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521727524069416962?s=20&t=l_O8Npz9NSjde637cPDIaA