14:55
One gets a bit subdued every morning when starting the round with firms and it doesn’t light up red inside the city of Kherson but then you realize you can’t have everything all the time and that the Russians are currently going and drowning themselves in veritable swarms so it’s a good start to the day anyway. Around Izyum they are probably hitting both sides pretty hard, or actually west of Izyum and all the way to Severodonetsk and you start to slowly wonder about the condition of the Russians in that area. After all, Ukraine will start pressing from the west going east with two brigades that are in relatively good condition and then the brigades they’ve been messing around with up near Kharkov which are more worn out and I believe the ability for effective defense is low among the remaining cooks and drivers.
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If you do a best of the week, there is a nice little string of fires along the road Izyum – Kupiansk, just as fun to see every time.
14:56
This one ended up very wrong…
15:04
Pro-Russian sides post many pictures of wounded from Azovstal, my god how bad condition many were in and you understand why the wounded were negotiated out.
Is there any information on how many stayed behind, could it be 400-500 left or are they continuing to evacuate?
16:39
Shoigu is sitting and spelling through the comments reading aloud and is quite pleased that he took KGB Swedish back in the day because now he understands what is happening on the ground, especially the chaos in Izyum and why Gerasimov hasn’t answered WhatsApp for a few weeks. I think generally there has been a big shift now in MSM and other debaters and it’s starting to sound quite positive. It was just a little over a week ago that people were worried about the Russians’ capacity and that Ukraine had used its resources to the max. Now the Ukrainians themselves have announced that there will be an offensive this summer and then you have to trust that.
16:47
The experts have the privilege of being able to be silent for a while, adjust their models and then start again when they feel confident. If Ukraine starts going on the offensive now, it will be that they always knew Ukraine would go on the offensive. This thread has probably hit more right than many of the experts but what they do better than the thread is that they have figured out how to get paid for their coffee grounds and how they always land on their feet.
17:15
Right now Sweden seems to have achieved the somewhat incredible feat of ending up on the right side of history in the Ukraine war. I am quite quick to criticize the current government for most things but when it really mattered they stuck together.
We have also delivered quite a few AT4s and received some credit so we are probably doing quite well in the category of supporting Ukraine too.
If you really want to shine, a few Archers and Strf-90s would have been good, also the chance for free advertising for future exports.
We’ll see, maybe there will be some fresh air ahead and the whole wet sack of neutrality where one basically just cozies up with thug dictatorships, screams at the USA and tries to dismantle our defense can roll over on its side and die and we become a highly valued member of the group defending the free world. The UK has been at it since the Napoleonic wars but somewhere you have to start.
17:19
Yes, the color coding was nice.
18:17
Hungary might get into trouble after this war. Some have thought that they have stood up to the woke wave but there is a very big difference compared to Poland for example so it becomes clear right away that they are on Putin’s side. When they eventually realize that Russia has lost, they will probably try to wriggle out of this but it would be fitting if the EU did not forget. Preferably their membership should be frozen for 10 years and then up for reconsideration or something. Their head of state has won with a majority every time.
18:33
I basically agree that you shouldn’t demonize an entire country’s population.
There are Russians who are in prison because they have protested against the war for example.
However, it is almost necessary right now, we should cheer for Ukraine and hate the Russian until this is over.
Then the world is not fair and this war will affect all Russians. Those who are smart and live in Europe should have written hateful tweets about Putin for a few months now so they are safe because they have their circle of friends who know they are on the right side. It wasn’t very fun to be German in the 50s and 60s for example.
19:48
This link is not so bad about what is to be delivered of artillery pieces.
Could the Netherlands already have sent their Panzerhaubitze 2000?
https://newlinesinstitute.org/ukraine/what-heavy-weapons-the-west-has-and-hasnt-sent-ukraine/
19:57
The first really difficult choice for the bunker dwarf will be when he, sweaty on the forehead and with the battle command’s eyes on him, stands hesitating about where to put his index finger, should he choose to defend Donbass proper or Crimea, which area should be abandoned (first).
20:01
The little diversion maneuver up near Sumy basically means that the Russians are diverting a BTG there and that Ukraine holds the line with second-rate national guard, it does not affect the numbers of the maneuver brigades so it mostly counteracts the purpose.
20:37
When you see stuff like this, and every brigade with a bit of self-respect has a platoon that edits videos and adds soundtracks with something cool, you understand that a BTG in defense has a lifespan like a mayfly when they stand in the way of a Ukrainian offensive and the artillery opens up.
https://youtu.be/t7py0TBmOXY
21:23
Helicopter and fighter jet attacks are starting to rain down again but it is in the eastern parts so Ukraine’s air defense umbrella is probably quite effective now which makes a ground offensive possible from that perspective. Then I am completely convinced that they only go on the offensive where they have artillery. Ukraine has tried a bit here and there the past week and if you don’t have pre-attack suppression, Ukraine takes quite big losses. You have to press with artillery, SOF and a well-balanced battle.
09:28
Behind the southern front it seems to be quite poorly defended/porous, because about a month ago there were 70 Russian soldiers who disappeared over time and Melitopol’s airport occasionally gets hit, a good place for supplies one would guess.
It’s encouraging that the Russians can’t even sleep in peace, then you have reached the peak of disruptive activity.
Melitopol is probably also positioned so that one can guess it has been a good place for higher command to be comfortably distant from all fronts, so with a little luck they had a couple of stars.