11:29
Yes, I hate war. What I have taken with me is that Russia will not stop using violence against Ukraine unless they are kicked out feet first. Numbers are subordinate to capability, and Ukraine currently has both for a limited time. I seriously thought there would be a quick collapse in Russia but have over time understood that the sanctions are no more than a paper tiger when they still talk about excluding some bank from SWIFT and that maybe they should stop buying oil and gas, soon. Now Ukraine has to throw out the Russians and then secure their border with their western army and with western equipment and simply have a 30 km demilitarized zone that they maintain with force.
11:33
One wonders when Russian units will really have had enough and choose life. The river crossings are now generally known everywhere.
Some retreating Russian units have been denied re-entry to Russian territory. Sure, it has gotten a bit warmer, but nearly three months of war with this intensity is probably quite taxing. What they really want to force is a front collapse during a Ukrainian offensive that spreads and becomes general panic, but we probably won’t get that much fun.
11:44
The figure 256 and of them 50 wounded is quite consistent in pro-Russian media. Yesterday it was 300 who left Azovstal but now revised to 256 or is it in two batches? Ukraine itself has reported 260?
The question then is whether these are all the defenders and they have done as they should and exaggerated their strength or if they left with the most seriously wounded and those who believe they can survive captivity and the rest choose to continue fighting?
It is also a pro-Russian claim that it continues today and that they are kind of emptying different sections of the fortress; this is, unlike above, COMPLETELY unconfirmed.
Thoughts go to those guys today, hope they survive and don’t get a shot in the back of the head as thanks.
12:50
All this must come in steps; now that they are slowly beginning to understand that the land gains are over, they must get to try holding captured terrain in their version of defense in depth. When it starts to become difficult to plug the holes Ukraine hacks open and you don’t get enough reserves in – Then you have to start thinking about either withdrawing with honor intact or keeping Donbass proper and Crimea politically. They have probably learned that whoever comes with too radical ideas too early gets a short career. I am quite sure it is the Russians who are out of phase here and that it will be a bit like with Kharkiv on several front sections ahead, and since there is some inertia in peace efforts, the probability is high that Ukraine has either retaken everything or that the Russians have retreated to the 2014 border on their own before Putin et al. have managed to get a narrative going that could gain acceptance in the free West.
Like, “we agree to give up Donbass if we get to keep Crimea” – Ukraine takes Crimea. “Alright, we can consider just Donbass if we get an excuse too” – Ukraine takes half of Donbass, “ok, last offer, we are very satisfied with Luhansk but then we pay no compensation” – video of Zelensky in Luhansk making the V sign.
14:01
Yes, I think so too, if Finland and Sweden could submit their application without Russian nuclear-armed strategic bombers and ships prowling outside our territorial border, it wouldn’t happen. It would have been the perfect opportunity to rattle the saber, especially Sweden is probably perceived as a bit sensitive to that.
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That they would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or drop something on a city in Europe I see as out of the question; now even the threat of nuclear weapons is spent, they have threatened too much and for too long.
14:07
A pilot in a small Cessna has apparently spent the morning drawing “make beer not war” on Flightradar near the Ukrainian border 🙂
Never check a good story, they say, but there have been some body parts over the years on Flightradar.
14:12
If they take Vovchansk, they cut the supply route for the entire northern offensive but mainly Izyum.
The detour around is very long and now Ukraine is on its way towards Kupiansk again as well.
Russia can/will probably have supply from the other hub too but a nice move by Ukraine.
Strange if the Russians can’t hold Vovchansk or the terrain around it because they only have two Ukrainian mechanized brigades and national guards against them, no huge numbers directly, who are also trying to push towards Kupiansk now.
16:36
It is the UN and the Red Cross who have blood on their hands if they let the prisoners die, because then they have deceived the soldiers with promises of safety that they cannot fulfill. Now I know nothing about this but I remember, for example, Srebrenica where the Dutch served 11,000 on a platter to the Serbs. The Red Cross must have constant eye contact with every soldier to be able to deliver what they promised here and at the first attempt of murder they should scream loudly in all the channels they have.
Now this is EXACTLY what the UN and the Red Cross could actually be good for and they cost as much as a small country so time to prove it.
19:17
I wonder if anyone knows why so many soldiers in good condition have surrendered at Azovstal?
I understand the wounded and also those who belonged to the border guards might have a chance but it seems like Azov is sitting on the buses, someone is drinking Coca Cola, someone else is fixing their beard.
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My thought is that they found something effective with the incendiary bombs and that they understood they wouldn’t last much longer, the bunker openings were probably next to be effective over time if they found them all. Or there is a robust control here that nothing will happen but I am pessimistic about Azov anyway.
19:26
A sad day to scour pro-Russian forums because they are bouncing around completely ecstatic about Azovstal. It will probably become clear after a while whether it was everyone or those who needed to be evacuated.
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Something we haven’t thought about is how patient Ukraine has been here, I can probably think of a couple of times in history where a rescue attempt would have been appropriate despite poor odds. It’s simple math and the command leadership could not see that the probability of success with reasonable losses was there.
11:05
When it comes to Turkey’s veto, and now I’m probably the last one on that ball in the thread, Finland/Sweden is the first prize and Turkey was a consolation prize that is now almost obsolete since they have Ukraine.
What Erdogan says and what will happen do not necessarily go hand in hand here; getting the northern flank under NATO is a dozen-pointer for the USA.
Lately, I have been thinking a bit about the rules for expelling countries from NATO and the EU; when you set up your clubs, you often think carefully about the application and participation, but kicking someone out usually gets a line in some paragraph with some loose ends or something really stupid like 100% must vote yes, and that includes the country to be expelled.
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As I see it, the big organizations like the UN, WHO, and others have already capsized; the UN has had about 1000 condemnations of Israel in a few years and cannot squeeze out a single one about Ukraine, and in the committee for human rights and the one for women’s rights, there are a bit of everything, like Saudi Arabia and other oppressive regimes. WHO also helped China spread COVID by considering that no flight ban was needed during the critical month. These seem mostly to be for squandering aid money, in my opinion.
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The way forward is probably a strong EU and a strong NATO; we can get another hundred years or so of peace through that. The only other threat on the map would be China, and sanctions would almost be enough to make them back down.
Russia should be encapsulated in NATO and kept on a tight leash with sanctions so they cannot build up a qualified threat. The world is not fair.
As someone wrote, China is probably not eager to arm Russia; they have probably rather eyed some land in Siberia that they think should belong to them. For any conflict in the world, NATO and the EU will be able to gather enough units from the standing pool so that the member countries can otherwise develop economically as they should.
You have to provide extra funds for the countries that encapsulate Russia. The threat to this is mainly leading politicians in the EU. The UK and USA have a knack for always getting it right. The above is not a hill I am prepared to die on as a firm or anything exciting, but as it should develop, I think.