11:39
This article sets off all my warning bells, when Macron and Scholz start talking about Russia not being humiliated, they are really saying that Russia should be allowed to keep Donbass and Crimea as some damn consolation prize as thanks for a good try, which unfortunately didn’t go so well.
The threat of nuclear weapons is used up and Ukraine can retake all its territory if it wants, it’s just a matter of time.
Germany has only managed to bark once in this conflict and that was when they got annoyed at Zelensky for not wanting to meet Scholz in Kyiv.
Macron calls the Bunker dwarf once a week and thinks he is our time’s Chamberlain without having properly read history.
Now we are almost at the playground “who is right” stage here, but to deny Ukraine to fully retake its own territory on its own would be a great injustice and one can hope that more countries join the USA, UK, and Eastern Europe here. Denying Russia the opportunity for future ethnic cleansings is very good for the whole world.
You almost want to see Putin’s face when he reads that Macron and Scholz don’t want him to be humiliated too much 🙂
https://www.dn.se/varlden/erik-de-la-reguera-i-paris-och-berlin-varnas-for-en-fornedring-av-putin/
11:47
It is probably quite lively on the road towards Kupiansk from Chuihiv now, and if you interpret FIRMS as the bible, it must be total war on steroids south of Kupiansk – west of the Oskil river because the strings of fires along the Kupiansk – Izyum road are only increasing. That area is probably next on the list for Ukraine to clear up Kharkiv style and really the Russians can’t do anything. The BTGs down by Izyum probably won’t get out of the holes except for a proper flight northwards and they have to defend Belgorod against trolling now so reserves at Kupiansk are probably quite small. When attempts to flee from Izyum come, it will be a beautiful street race into minefields, fire ambushes, and fixed artillery targets that will light up FIRMS like red strings.
One can guess that there are smaller fights at Sanytsi and Balakliia.
11:52
They have chosen such a damn bad place to wear out their last BTGs that it will go fast.
They are probably trying a proper storming of the city without having learned anything from Kharkiv and Mariupol.
They must also try an encirclement of the city with associated drowning and advance over open fields.
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Now we don’t know what Ukraine has gathered in the city but they have one of the capable NG brigades in the city and around it is an armored and maybe a motorized brigade. Between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk there is also a river so in a worst-case scenario, you lose half the fortress.
12:15
If you let Russia get away with the invasion of Ukraine and keep a territory they could only hold with nuclear threats and give Putin his out – don’t you think that sends a pretty strong signal that violence pays off for Putin and the Russians?
All heads of state who call him and promise to try to solve the situation only give Putin legitimacy as he sees it, he is worth talking to.
So far, Putin and the Russians have shown themselves to be purely criminal and do only one thing, push until it stops.
They have also shared their vision of Russia and it is between Vladivostok – Lisbon, which is probably the least harsh thing they have said in the last two months, everything else is ethnic cleansing and genocide.
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Now this gets very speculative and I put words in your mouth but if Putin proclaims Gotland an “existential threat” then we are supposed to give it to him after a nuclear threat?
Now is naturally the right time to draw the red line and if Putin chooses nuclear weapons he will do it, no one has exactly forced Putin to attack Ukraine and if it goes badly it’s his own fault 🙂
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I want nuclear war as little as you do but I also don’t want a third world war that we get dragged into because we didn’t stop Putin in Ukraine but let him get away with it. If things start going well for Russia you can be pretty sure he will get support from others. If the nuclear threat works, you also have China and other states adding it to their playbook. The only one who will not succeed is Rocketman because he will never get his rockets outside the border.
14:15
A couple of gym bags of unfolded dollar bills.
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It was a project with one of the larger European port operators who were to build a container terminal inland in Africa, their staff were Dutch, French, and English.
All the big shots met inside the office, contractor, port operator, and the local authorities.
I was sitting with something at a table so you could see who went into the conference room, in comes the contractor with three briefcases and 1.5 hours later when everyone comes out it is the local authorities carrying the three bags.
Last comes the port operator out looking very serious and a week later when I complained about some problem they were very concerned that my suggestion was not in line with company policy.
15:17
If you give Putin the concession that he gets Gotland to avoid launching nuclear weapons against Stockholm, then the natural next step is to demand Stockholm to avoid launching nuclear weapons against Stockholm, so you are just kicking the can down the road. The question then becomes rather, are you prepared to give up your entire country and sovereignty and recognize yourself as a Russian puppet province to avoid getting a nuclear weapon against Stockholm?
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Now there is probably a middle step here and that is that you have countermeasures against said nuclear weapons and we can hope the USA has sneaked those in by now 🙂 After all, no other country since WW2 has yielded to nuclear threats and given up its sovereignty.
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Can we agree on this – if Ukraine chooses to want to retake its territory then no one else should try to force them to give up Crimea and Donbass, all else equal as it is today?
As long as Ukraine pursues that line, I think no one has done anything wrong if they support it and my way of supporting it is to ridicule Russia as much as I can and support Ukraine 100%.
If Ukraine sits down at the negotiating table entirely of its own free will then we must of course also support that because then no one has the right to demand Ukrainian lives.
15:19
I forgot one last thing – Scholtz or Macron are completely free to offer Russia Pomerania or Alsace if they want, that they engage in a discussion with the aim that Ukraine should give up part of its territory is quite unbelievable really but it is probably easier to hope that someone else gives up their country than to have to give up a province yourself and see the Russians push in a couple of Iskander divisions there.
15:25
The British have just approved a huge weapons package and are sweeping the world for Soviet materiel.
The USA has approved something big.
Poland has itself sent 250 T72s or something and Globemasters land daily in Ukraine.
The materiel consumption is astronomical but I think Ukraine can keep pace while Russia is falling behind.
Australia is sending more too, Italy and many other countries. Portugal of course sent some WW2 junk 🙂
15:43
The competition is pretty tough in the Russian army over which position has the shortest lifespan, probably very few would have guessed the Chief of Defence…
One thing I absolutely would not want to be in this war is a vehicle driver for ammunition or fuel transport because there you really have zero chance of survival if you get targeted.
16:20
There will be no new Mariupol or Severodonetsk because it will come too late in the war. Ukraine has already started rolling up the northern front from Chuihiv now and that will only continue.
I have changed my mind about the Poles, I think it would be good if they took over the front against Belarus so Ukraine can free up its brigades from there because they are needed as they take back up to the border and must fortify it with units that could have been used to kill Russians elsewhere.
11:10
At Popasna, Ukraine has only done as planned and fallen back to the next larger settlement that the Russians must storm across open fields to reach.
Now it seems the Russians have tried to do this from all directions and some very small settlements have been taken.
It is actually not clear whether these settlements were between Popasna and line two and thus not defended or should have been part of the defense. In any case, it seems the Russians are banging their heads against the concrete wall again.
According to UAwardata, this is where the endangered marine infantry will become extinct.
Pro-Russian sites declare Popasna as the new Stalingrad, which is a bit of an exaggeration.