12:00
Then I actually think this – if Germany, Italy or France want peace then they can set a good example and give up some provinces in their countries to Russia themselves, otherwise they can shut up.
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The fact is that the leaders of the free world should take a stronger tone against these and say exactly that, stoop to their level and propose that they offer the Russians Marseille if they give up Crimea…
Then the free world’s journalists should start scrutinizing these leaders’ and these countries’ companies’ business with Russia and roll out more sanctions against individuals and companies. Could become a competitive advantage for the companies that behave.
12:01
Then I actually think this – if Germany, Italy or France want peace then they can set a good example and give up some provinces in their countries to Russia themselves, otherwise they can keep quiet.
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The fact is that the leaders of the free world should take a stronger tone against these and say exactly that, stoop to their level and propose that they offer the Russians Marseille if they give up Crimea.
Then the free world’s journalists should start scrutinizing these leaders’ and these countries’ companies’ dealings with Russia and roll out more sanctions against individuals and companies. Could become a competitive advantage for the companies that behave.
12:02
Then I actually think this – if Germany, Italy or France want peace then they can set a good example and give up some provinces in their countries to Russia themselves, otherwise they can keep quiet.
12:02
The fact is that the leaders of the free world should take a stronger stance against these and say exactly that, stoop to their level and propose offering the Russians Marseille if they give up Crimea.
Then the journalists of the free world should start scrutinizing these leaders’ and these countries’ companies’ dealings with Russia and roll out more sanctions against individuals and companies. It could become a competitive advantage for the companies that behave properly.
12:29
Now to the unfortunate part, the first link is Zelensky’s speech about how he negotiated with “Turkey, Switzerland, Israel, first with France” to arrange the prisoner exchange with the heroes at Azovstal – the numbers are unclear to me and especially whether everyone has left or if a core of 400-500 continues the defense. We know that the UN and the Red Cross are also involved in this.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3488264-zelensky-says-all-defenders-will-be-evacuated-from-azovstal-plant.html
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What has happened to the heroes at Azovstal who accepted an exchange we do not know, but pro-Russian blogs are ecstatic that the “Azov-pigs” are now to be eliminated and the more balanced ones talk about prosecuting them (with the death penalty as the only outcome, of course…). There is some footage of an Azov fighter in court and reports that the first are to be tried on May 19-20, so that seems to be true. They also mock the defenders who brought their personal equipment “they thought they were going home”… Then there is some footage of defenders on Ukrainian soil (unconfirmed, was probably CanadianUkrainian).
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There is a significant dissonance here between what Zelensky says and what the Russians are doing, and if we disregard the wounded and those from other units who thought they had a chance of survival, there were pictures of Azov from the buses that looked like they still had combat value, so at least some of them have boarded the buses and trust that the international community can deliver. Turkey, UN, Red Cross, Switzerland, France (are we surprised) and Israel have blood on their hands if they start prosecuting and executing these soldiers. They could have stayed and continued the fight or made a breakout and traded their lives for some Russians’. I know as little as everyone else but I am starting to wonder if Turkey and France have double-crossed the Russians here just to get the defenders out of Azovstal, I have zero evidence for that.
12:48
I have dreamed away (speculation department) that when Ukraine starts to gain a foothold on Crimea little by little, they blow up the bridge at the same time as they announce that everyone who surrenders within 2 days will be treated well, for everyone else it will be summary execution when captured, choose wisely. A clear retreat route for a Russian is probably either everyone to the boats now or to surrender, and boats weighed down by Russian soldiers can be picked off by drones.
13:23
Still heavy losses in armor for the Russians in the daily lottery, they have also shot down a helicopter.
Saw footage of Ukrainian attack helicopters recently and near Kherson and the eastern front Ukrainian CAS is quite active now.
An article in SvD where Nils Bildt tries to summarize Russian capability and the interesting thing was that they had mobilized 350 aircraft for the invasion and losses now are up to 204. Most other things were quite loose as he did not factor in lack of key personnel and the condition of material in the depots but he included that they seem to have a total of 3200 tanks which the thread also guessed that they have some thousand left to deploy to Ukraine.
Media in general are quick on ISW analyses now.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1527919611974492160/photo/1
13:33
There is a filmed interrogation with the 36th Marines brigade commander, the one who led the retreat into Azovstal.
Now it was just that, an interrogation but it does not look like a direct exchange and he is definitely not in Ukraine.
Pro-Russian side.
14:03
Considering that Russia has not yet declared war on Ukraine and stands as guarantor for threats against Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum, I would like to know what hard guarantees France, Israel, Turkey, and Switzerland have considered themselves to have received from Russia that the defenders of Azovstal would be handed over to Ukraine and especially how they have thought the agreement would be upheld, what coercive means do they have?
Otherwise, they become almost accomplices.
15:14
This is almost OT and the blogger can remove it if so, but during the first phase of the war there was a guy named Mikael Skillt quite often in the media, a Swedish neo-Nazi sniper who apparently stayed in Ukraine when things calmed down with the Donbass conflict and then got some kind of international assignment. I stumbled upon the article below in the Italian press and it seems he has been in Azovstal. They have illustrated it quite colorfully.
https://www.quotidiano.net/esteri/guerra-ucraina-cecchino-mikael-skillt-1.7474336
11:56
Have been sitting and pondering Ukraine’s numbers, unlike the Russians and their empty BTG shells mostly consisting of cooks and vehicle drivers, it is my impression that Ukraine has not exhausted any maneuver brigade and that over time they push in reserves. They might be down to 80% in some places and a bit low on tanks but these are still fully functioning units with experience, expertise, communication, and command chains. I have tried to count before but now I took a closer look at the numbers, surely there are errors here and there.
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The army has 38 maneuver brigades and 13 independent battalions. These have been trained by the West since 2014 and can be considered a Western army with Soviet weapons, mixed with some cool Western materiel. There is quite a bit of reconnaissance and SOF here for the partisan war.
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The National Guard has 7 brigades which I believe most can now be counted as maneuver brigades, we are starting to see a couple circled on the unit maps which probably means they function in combat as intended. They are infantry-heavy but seem to have received enough tanks/IFVs for one or a few vehicles per company or something like that. I think it looks like they use what they have as infantry support and this has proven to work quite well so far when they have been on defense or conducted local counteroffensives.
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Volunteers (a fairly broad term) have around 40 units at battalion size or slightly larger and about 50 at company size. Some have proven very capable, others probably not so much. On the unit maps you see some in the battle lines and you can guess that quite a few of these are for the partisan war.
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Special forces police have +20 “battalions” which I guess are more company-sized without actually knowing.
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Territorial defense, like the home guard, absolutely swarms with 50-60 “brigades” and “battalions,” you can guess 1000-2000 men per unit or so, I don’t know?
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Now it has been 3 months of war and everything mobilized has either seen combat or trained for three months. Many of those who joined since the war started have previous combat experience and there is a substantial pool of reserves to draw from. Defense of the “northern front,” that is the part of the front that will be liberated over time, should largely be handled by Territorial defense, special forces police, volunteers, and assigned companies/battalions from the army or NG. Provided Poland does not now step in and take over guard duty against Belarus, I think it seems Ukraine can deliver a blow with just under 50 brigades if they get the feeling. It won’t happen like that but it is a veritable steamroller that will be used responsibly to keep losses down. Units capable of conducting partisan warfare should be in the order of +20,000 I think if you try to combine those that fall under that category to be able to handle such a task. There may certainly be even more for the partisan war under the term volunteers since quite a few volunteers from other countries bring that expertise with them.
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The Russians hardly need to be gone through anymore, empty shells of BTGs, disillusioned barely falling under the term soldier. Near Kherson they have now pushed in 9 BTGs which unfortunately are in fairly good condition. Along the southern front 17 BTGs which I guess are in varying condition as they probably have pulled back battered units from other front sections and dumped them there for guard duty so probably a mixed bag there.
The BTGs north of the Slovyansk – Severodonetsk line I am completely convinced are in terrible shape and that all Ukrainian terrain north of that line is a cleanup operation over time, soldiers in holes wanting to go home type.
At Popasna they are burning off the last now of what they had left in good condition north of Donetsk and in Donbass proper where the rebels are stirring around it is probably bad shape with the rebel battalions. Maybe there are some ethnic Russian BTGs behind who have been sitting eating meat soup for a few months but I think most have been sent to Popasna/Severodonetsk now and rotated back battered BTGs. The rebels have had to go first in every attack for three months now as thanks for choosing Russia 😊
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Now Kharkov, Izyum and continued pushing eastward is really not an offensive, it is the Ukrainian units in the combat zone that have gained local advantage because the Russians are weak and have been able to go on the offensive, they have reinforced a bit and keep going and somewhat surprised have been able to report back that the Russians are retreating. Tour-777 also plays a role (collective term for artillery with the right ammunition)
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For a somewhat more complete delivered attempt one should gather a hell of a lot of artillery, push in everything they have for the partisan war on one front section and then pool the best maneuver brigades they have with night fighting capability and it will probably be impossible to hold any front section that attracts Ukraine’s full interest except maybe the old ceasefire line at Donbass proper but that one can be rolled up from south or north. Before the war started Ukraine had just under 2000 artillery pieces so ammunition is probably the main bottleneck.
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It is in this light that one should see that Italy, Germany and France now want peace, it is really sad to see but at the same time a nice confirmation that Ukraine is done with the warm-up and that the match can soon begin. I understand that Ukraine’s leadership is starting to make rather poorly veiled threats here because they know what is coming.