11:58
Took a look at Lyman now that the city has fallen and it is located north of the Seversky Donets and the Ukrainians retreated in “good” order (the last group runs like crazy along a ditch to get out). The Russians have taken heavy losses and I read somewhere that Spetsnaz participated in the battle. Yes, now they just have to get across the Seversky Donets without the big drowning death and then the next city to capture is Slovyansk. It’s a bit like a Russian doll this and with each layer you remove, the next becomes harder and finally fire-breathing. Lyman was a poorly placed defense for Ukraine which they have held because they could, as the Russians are so lousy. The city has the river at its back and forest on two sides but it is naturally urban combat and that costs when playing attacker.
—
Severodonetsk is also on the wrong side of the river and since these are Russians, when they have managed to establish a bridgehead on the south side of the Seversky Donets and start pushing southwards, the first counteroffensive will have them with their backs to the river and when the pontoon bridges are blown up it will be swimming and drowning all over again. They haven’t even managed to get that far yet as it’s already crashing at the bridgehead…
—
You can understand why Izyum is so difficult for the Russians, the river runs in the southern part of the forest belt and just south of Izyum they probably got help from the locals to find a natural crossing. The communities south of the river are in open fields and Ukraine has recently retaken some. It’s a fairly exposed environment for the Russians to operate in and a bottleneck as in and out is just south of Izyum. Now the maps show slightly different things but some have about half the forest belt southwest of Izyum as Ukrainian, exactly how it looks is hard to know, it’s in this forest belt that the firms have been lighting up red since May 3-4 now. The Russians have captured Balakliia and have the river between them and the Ukrainians so you can also understand that it’s not entirely easy to advance from the west into the flank of the Izyum offensive for Ukraine.
—
South of Lysychansk the Russians are pressing and have reached Toshkivka. The maps suggest, however, that Lysychansk is good defensive terrain and they are anchored in Verkhonamyanka (damn these place names…). If they hold the crossings over the river north of the city they can still have a lifeline on the northern road.
From the Russian side there should be a couple of attempts at river crossings over the Siversky Donets still with the aim to meet up with the Popasna offensive. Lyman and Izyum are too far away so it should be in the same geographical area where they have failed so far. Mass exodus and chaos then.
—
To summarize, the Russians still have not taken anything of value in the pocket/bend north of Horlivka. They have gotten stuck in the forest belt just as the thread predicted and Ukraine’s hedgehogs are prepared if needed. That whole area is supposed to be given up for grilled BTGs if necessary and my worst scenario was probably that they would have to give it up but I was also looking sideways at the Dnipro – Pavlograd – straight south line for a while in the beginning when it looked bleak, not this latest fiasco but a few weeks after the starting shot for Putin’s humiliation.
—
Now we should not forget that there is an interpretation of the Russians’ battle plan here that they are satisfied with Luhansk oblast and then want peace on their terms. Ukraine can conduct tactical retreats in Luhansk oblast and trade them for grilled BTGs while preparing to take something else on the southern front that the Russians cannot accept and then the Russians cannot try to freeze the conflict. What is playing out right now is a delaying battle which is admittedly quite difficult for Ukraine but it is presumably according to plan. The Russians have been pounding with everything they have against the pocket/bend north of Horlivka for over a month and achieved so little that it’s almost embarrassing, they are trying to call Popasna the Stalingrad for lack of anything else.
12:10
The Russians have probably shone at times, but even in the good old days the Carolean army chased the Russians around quite a bit and they were numerically inferior then. World War I went so-so and ended even worse for the Russians.
World War II they absolutely did not win on their own and above all, as Solros2022 wrote, they got all kinds of help, training wheels and all. Above all, it was the Soviet dictatorship thereafter until they collapsed in a big puff of smoke.
—
There is some kind of overconfidence in the Russians and a Soviet romanticism that I find very hard to understand, they are the very definition of failure and you have to look hard to find worse bunglers. Rocket Man is starting to look really competent in comparison. They are a criminal organization that happens to be a country. The best for the world is if they are isolated inside NATO countries and then have a chokehold with sanctions and let them sell their gas and oil to keep going but not manage to rebuild their army. Now that’s not what they did with the money because they bought luxury yachts instead but that’s what the money should have gone to. (Yes, I know there are decent Russians).
12:19
Was it you who posted a fun post about artillery ammunition with longer range and anti-artillery radar that can be built in a garage? I thought it was an interesting reflection because Ukraine uses civilian drones that they hang wing grenades on and take out tanks, so it should absolutely be possible, I think, for the handy person?
Then you probably have anti-drone weapons, some type of handheld device that cuts the control to the drone if you aim at it so it crashes. IR glasses that see the heat from the drones’ engines so you know where to aim.
Both should be possible to buy at Teknikmagasinet.
—
Now almost every Ukrainian is doing their part, there was some old grandmother who poisoned the food she gave to a platoon of Russians who probably died within an hour.
12:27
No, I wrote a long post about it a while ago that now that the Russians are starting to go on the defensive, it will be difficult to avoid losses in the Ukrainian offensive, if you had hit them just when they stopped it was probably an optimal window but that is closed. They probably do what they can, new artillery and brigades for night fighting and a hell of a lot of guerrilla warfare but if you go on the offensive Ukrainians will die. It is only for Ukraine to decide if it is worth it for them but right now it is the signals they are giving and then we should fully support that and cheer them on to victory 🙂
12:34
Moralist, no it is obviously not completely over with tanks, I thought I wrote that above but maybe was a bit unclear. But the fact that T62s have been deployed at the front means they don’t have more modern tanks to deploy right there because if they did they would have done so, right?
Now the T62 battalion is at the southern front so presumably on defense, I think?
—
This is a bit like our mechanized battalions (are they still called armored infantry?) being worn down and then you upgrade one with PBV302 and tracked vehicles while some other battalion still gets strf90.
13:18
Yes, we have a couple of wildcards, Russian motivation hits rock bottom or Putin goes down and there are plenty of anecdotes that this is the case but I realized on May 9 that Ukraine is a side issue for the Russians, who by the way are starting to emerge as something bigger, and that the inertia in the country Russia means they will continue to push in BTGs for a while longer. There will probably be quite a lot of retaking by force here and then they have to slowly work their way forward with maneuver brigades and try to manage losses but they will increase.
13:21
What the hell, now Aftonbladet has a really negative article and describes Lyman as the “tactically important city.” Do they know it is north of the river?
Slovyansk and Kramatorsk I would describe as tactically important.
If they fall and Ukraine has deployed its reserves then it is a created situation but we are not even close to that.
14:03
No news about the daily losses today but they remain high. A BTG that is almost unusable.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1530079484766048257/photo/1
14:27
I’m stealing this from Daily Kos; “The unfortunate moment is coming where several EU countries are making noises about encouraging Ukraine to sue for peace as attrition war continues”.
—
That there is now some kind of “Russia wins the war” rhetoric being broadcast when they have a hell of a hard time even advancing in an area in easternmost Ukraine that is too mobile for delaying combat should be seen in light of the Daily Kos comment above. It suits Putin perfectly that EU leaders are starting to get a bit worried so they ask Ukraine to make peace quickly. As usual, our media probably unintentionally plays along and quotes Russian statements. If I were them I would never post a single Russian quote. Ukraine has already officially stated that they will retake their territory by force, write that instead and illustrate with grilled Russian BTG and a bad picture of Putin
14:32
Not everyone can be happy everywhere and in Severodonetsk it is quite territorial and NG heavy compared to Mariupol which was Azov, marines, mechanized and some of the others. Pro-Russian sites want us to believe that the collapse is near, you remember Mariupol which had fallen every day for two months before they left voluntarily.
The fall of Mariupol may have been a bit of a morale breaker unfortunately just when it is time for some new hedgehogs to form but I don’t see how the Russians will succeed in encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the best scenario for the Russians is probably that they take Severodonetsk and then have to stand and look out over the river.
17:39
No damn it HickeHiskelig, you have to turn the map the right way 🙂
Then Ukraine will cross the Oskil river – when – it’s time to go on the offensive and swing down towards the Seversky Donets from the north.
—
What many believe is that we now have reversed roles and that Ukraine’s 8-year-long preparations to meet a Russian offensive could somehow be copied by the Russians in a month when they have gotten stuck. The Russians stand where they stand, quite a few BTGs are badly beaten and they lack quite a lot, except artillery. Ukraine has prepared a serious blow that will be more competent than what we have seen from the Russians, night fighting and a Western army that wages war and a bunch of brigades.
Sure, Ukrainians will die in this offensive but it will not be the same chaos as when a Russian general points authoritatively towards Ukraine and utters a commanding forward just seconds before the GPS-guided shell hits its target.
—
There is a GPS topper for the dumb 777 shells that makes them hit within a couple of meters compared to preset coordinates. They can’t cost too much and should be available in large quantities with the 777 batteries. As soon as the Russians dig in, it is just to log the targets and start ticking them off until a gap appears and then forward 01:00.
17:42
Yes, as soon as the Russians take the smallest settlement the discussion starts about either losing the war or freezing the war. At the same time as Ukraine says they will retake their territory by force.
—
I have such a hard time understanding this, we have had the same for-against about Kiev, Kharkov, Izyum and now it is Donbass and then whether Kherson will happen or not. A child can see that Ukraine is winning because Russian BTGs are going to zero in their attacks. The unit maps are Hitler’s map warfare in the bunker all over again.
18:00
Do you have a bit more?
Where they cross Inhulets is highly interesting here.
In several places it probably means several pontoon bridges which means a larger operation?
They don’t go straight for Kherson if they cross the river but if they go straight east from a river crossing near Kherson they cut all crossings of the Dnieper. Could of course be further north as well.
Firms have had some red dots in the front lines but nothing out of the ordinary so you raise your eyebrows.
But damn, an offensive in Kherson would really be needed, not least to stop the defeatist mood in the thread 🙂
18:04
Do you remember that last group during a tactical retreat running like crazy in a ditch to escape encirclement, here they are.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1529891084347879427?cxt=HHwWhsC9ubz1obsqAAAA
18:08
We always talk about knocked-out tanks but I want to remind you that 3000 armored vehicles have been knocked out and those are the ones with all the firepower that are either dead or without armor.
We’ve probably only seen artillery and tanks on trains or heavy transport so new armored vehicles are further back in the priority list.
18:17
Yes, that’s the idea, let’s hope so, they should be able to cut through Kherson and the southern front pretty quickly if it’s as bad as I think. That T62 battalion would be good to knock out before it goes into defense, for example.
Crimea is probably easier to defend because they have really gone all in around Severedonetsk and Popasna and before that it was Izyum. We discussed that a large part of the available BTGs were north of the Slovyansk – Severedonetsk line and the rest were in Popasna. Now they have also had to reinforce up at Belgorod as defense against trolling.
Not very lively on FIRMS and now there will be no updates over the weekend and the Ukrainian side is now observing radio silence, IF this is a start. We’ll just have to hold on and then the fog of war will probably lift in a few days.
—
Tactically very smart to open a second front because then the Russians have to start moving BTGs down to the south and then you can strike in the north and everyone has to retreat north again and somewhere there they probably run out of fuel.
18:46
Oh…
Kherson is thus on the other side of the Inhulets river from that crossing point and if you drive straight south you have all the bridges under direct or indirect fire and the Inhulets river as protection on the flank.
—
A wild guess is that this is the Russians’ weak point, they are partly west of the Inhulets river down in Kherson and northeast of the river crossing. In 4-5 hours it will be night and maybe they have sneaked up the 5th Tank brigade doing a night shift with their Polish T72s. If they can then fortify the settlements between Inhulets/Kherson – Khakovka then it’s game over for all BTGs west of the Dnieper if you have some exciting artillery grouped at a suitable distance and we know the 55th Artillery brigade got Cesar, right?
—
Mykilske is almost direct fire against the upper Kherson bridge if you look at it as optimistically as I do.
A couple of batteries in that settlement and no one will drive on any of the bridges at Kherson. Khakovka west of the Dnieper should be possible to storm straight into and go on defense. Yes, Mr Bean was the one who rang the bell.
—
If the Russians are denied retreat over the Dnieper you can probably guess what follows 🙂
18:50
Now we are three months into this but there will always be someone who points out the obvious, that I am going way off track, so I’ll say it myself right away.
19:09
The one who took over after Gerasimov got a flying start.
What epic chaos it will be in the Russian command now when they realize that the retreat over Kherson is blocked and then Ukraine is charging from the south Zaporozhye straight towards Melitopol.
The whole Belgorod adventure must quickly be shelved and try to send BTGs down to the southern front while not wanting to abandon the encirclement of Severedonetsk. Then in the middle of all the chaos Ukraine will strike north of Izyum.
22:35
Yes, there were a couple of comments in the excitement 🙂
It’s a genius who chose that point for the crossing, they only need to defend east when they have taken the terrain down to the Dnieper and they have the night to press down to the Dnieper and then they block all crossings over the Dnieper.
The artillery can stay north of Inhulets and support the defense.
Hard to believe the Russians have fortified every settlement and now Ukraine is doing it with defense to the east.
Russian air is denied west of the Dnieper.
In the last 3 weeks they have knocked out Russian artillery that was east of the Dnieper, that’s all the small fires we’ve seen on FIRMS and they have hit quite a few on the front line over a couple of weeks, for example the artillery and air struck about 40 targets a week ago and then we heard about 12 targets for the air.
We’ll see 🙂
22:53
Not once have I raised an eyebrow and thought, wow! to the Russians in this war, it has been idiocy after idiocy. Maybe how they thought it would play out in the beginning but now it didn’t.
—
The crossing Ukraine just made over Inhulets is brilliant, when it becomes clear what they have done you have to sit down for a while so it stops spinning. (Mr Bean can put on his CV that he was first in SE with the offensive).
—
-The Russians have pushed EVERYTHING into Popasna – Severedonetsk and they were allowed to hold.
-The Russians reinforce up in Belgorod when Ukraine started an offensive up there and now the Russians troll with various statements. (The thread guessed it was a diversion for Kherson I remember but no one really believed it directly..).
-The eastern front is weak, they are trying to go on defense but at Kherson they still plan an offensive so BTGs are gathered at Kherson direction Odessa and towards Mykolaiv.
-The river was probably considered a natural obstacle and behind it easier defense.
-Ukraine has crossed with a maneuver brigade and will press down to the Dnieper and cut the crossings then they only need defense to the east when they reach the Dnieper, the artillery can stay north of Inhulets. If they get some artillery to Mykilske they reach the bridges to Kherson but air and drones can just as well close them. The bridge over Khakovka is under indirect fire.
-Step two will probably be Zaporozhye and then they hammer down to Melitopol and deny the Russians retreat to Crimea.
– Now the Russians have to start moving BTGs down to the southern front and they take those units from Belgorod but probably also Severedonetsk and Popasna, they will try to attack west from Mariupol.
-The bridge at Kerch will probably be cut by Ukraine soon.
-When the Russians have started pulling their BTGs down to the southern front the offensive east towards Kupiansk starts again, they have already crossed the river at Malynivka.
-The units at Izyum will try to retreat north and will run a gauntlet through ambushes, mines and SOF.
-Ukraine crosses the Oskil river and clears the area north of the Slovyansk – Severedonetsk line.
-They now control the supply routes from the north to Donbass.
The rest can probably be guessed to be liberated Crimea and Donbass but it hasn’t played out that far yet.
23:08
What was burning east of the Dnieper down there seemed to be SOF who worked overtime. The Russians have probably been quite predictable and as said the critical mass has long been in Ukraine’s favor, the Russians can only do so much while Ukraine has been able to prepare for an offensive.
It will be an exciting tank duel between the T62 battalion and some Ukrainian brigade doing night fighting.
Now it’s all speculation as usual but Ukraine has been damn good at exploiting openings and this is set up for 4-5 steps now. It’s probably Crimea and Donbass proper that haven’t yet shown how it will play out but I find it hard to believe Ukraine won’t step on the gas.
There is artillery, drones and air that haven’t opened up yet, too bad it’s the weekend so FIRMS won’t be updated, I guess.
10:10
Jo Kos has the same idea as the thread here.
I think the brigade is equipped for night fighting and that it should have been fully used during the dark hours. We’ll see when the group work in the thread starts.
I need to take a look at the unit maps but I’m pretty sure most of the Russians are on the other side of the Inhulets since Odessa has been the focal point.
There are probably quite a few ways to deny the Russians a retreat across the Dnieper, drones, aircraft, artillery. The feeling is also that there are a couple of steps in this plan but once the first shot is fired, it more or less goes out the window, Ukraine has however been a master at this before and the Russians are weak now.
To cross the Inhulets and stay up there, why cross the river at all I wonder.
11:22
Can we agree that if the Russians had T90s, they wouldn’t have put T62s on the trains to Ukraine, after all it’s a matter of transport capacity?
According to Google, they are supposed to have something like a thousand or so T90s and they have lost 20 according to that excellent site klasa always posts. They should also have a few thousand T80s.
Some kind of consensus since the start of the war has been that Russia has 3500 tanks in total in such condition that they can get them operational. There is a guy on YouTube who has googled around all the depots and tried to count 🙂
—
If I may guess, I think they have exported most and kept an “inspection depot” to pass inspections and then have dismantled parts to sell, the parade battalions have then been responsible for their equipment while the rest rusted away because no one thought they would need to go to war. Now they surely need the T90, T80, and the decent T72s they have left for the territorial defense of Russia because they can’t leave Russia undefended. If we think they started with 130 BTGs, that’s maybe +1500 tanks and if they have now taken 1300 losses and are trying to replenish tanks for the 130 BTGs they now have in Ukraine, it’s almost what they would have in stock. I find it very hard to see how we will see a few thousand T80s and T90s in combat here, there will come a bunch of T72As as well and then some trickles of the better vehicles for continued offensive.
—
So there are no longer 1000-1500 T72, T80, and T90 to deploy in Ukraine and that’s what would be needed for another offensive after this one peters out. Now they are doing the best they can with what they have and a buried T62 is better than nothing. This while Ukraine has received 300 T72s with night fighting equipment.