11:36
If you snoop around on FIRMS it’s really just a bit of red around Orihiv that is Ukrainian and the road down towards Polohy which is under Russian control. At Kherson (so everything west of the Dnepr) there are no direct red markings where the river crossing is happening but in the front lines which could be the contact point there are also fires in what I interpret as rear areas.
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Now that the Russians’ air force is denied the Kherson area and the air defense platform is knocked out you can guess how a retreat over the bridges will go, SU-25s flying attacks against a straight string of retreating Russians will be Kuwait highway all over again.
11:50
Considering how it’s starting to sound now among EU leaders as soon as the Russians take a small village in the East, the conclusion in Ukraine’s command is probably that you have to strike while the iron is hot and retake your territory before Putin manages to spin up a peace deal and frozen war. The first step is to take something like Melitopol and isolate Crimea so Putin will find it hard to accept a frozen conflict without screaming for new attacks from Mariupol.
Then the Western PR is probably really on its toes this time and is shadowboxing right now.
11:58
If I were Ukraine I would say August and then start now before the Russians reinforce 🙂
There are 80 777 units deployed and 20 on the way out to units. Other EU band howitzers are deployed, aircraft have been delivered and are at the flotillas, all tanks have been delivered, ammunition is at the front and image intensifiers have new batteries. I don’t understand why anyone would need to wait a few more months.
The brigades that have been idle have done so either for 3 months or since the end of the first offensive mid-March, that’s quite a long time to train up reserves who already have combat experience.
The air defense umbrella also seems to be working damn well, drones are literally raining down right now.
12:06
I’ll turn your reasoning a bit, the Russians have on their own given up +40% of their front lines from 24 February until today and they have not achieved any of the combat objectives they declared before the spring offensive, Lavrov rang the bell on 17-18 April if I recall?
Now it’s almost that they take Luhansk Oblast which is 1/4 of the combat objectives and has no strategic value other than something Putin can try to cook up a peace deal on but Ukraine is the counterpart in such a deal…
It has also cost the Russians BTGs they cannot afford to lose when Ukraine gives them potato fields against grilled BTGs.
You also know that the 5th Tank Brigade which has been idle since the start of the war has fully fresh T72s with night fighting capability and that at least one of the artillery brigades at Kherson has gotten new barrels.
Add to that that the Russians are deploying T62s.
I see absolutely zero strength on the Russian side here, the threat is that Putin gets the West on board with a frozen conflict but as long as the UK or USA don’t join that group of traitors there is no direct risk here.
12:15
According to the blogger with Ukraine’s air force, yes they truly resurrected from the dead and are now so comfortable running CAS in the front lines that they do it daily. Everyone remembers the helicopter raids on Belgorod quite early so it’s highly plausible as the blog writes that long columns have been exposed to the air force or army aviation or whatever the helicopter units are called. We also learned from the blogger that they ran quite a lot of helicopters to Mariupol and if they had the capacity for that they have also had it for the convoys.
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It has also been said from the start that it was the big elephants participating in Izyum, not just SOF, and the blog has written a highly plausible assumption about how the river crossings were punctured. You have to have all the heavy brigades for something lying in wait in the flanks and as a fire brigade you could say 🙂
12:19
I think the nuclear threat is overplayed.
In the first weeks of the war Russia was supposed to drop nuclear weapons all over Europe if Globemasters delivered anything bigger than air rifles and today it’s aircraft, Patriot and tanks more than Ukraine can deploy.
Then it’s really so that if Russia uses some tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine they won’t take out the maneuver brigades but the NG and territorial plus the city they target. That has no decisive effect on the war but should force a fairly strong response from the West and I don’t think the Russians are willing to commit national suicide.
The US has good surveillance on launch ramps and will shoot down some, not all.
12:23
Yes, exactly right and something I have also thought about because when we got the footage from the river crossings with grilled BTG, there were some trees around that caught fire but not the whole forest, so forest definitely amplifies the effect. A larger ammo depot, a battalion tactical group, and similar burn a bit more vividly and are more visible.
Then if the Russians are low on armor (which they are because they are bringing up T62s) they mostly shoot at trenches and there it doesn’t burn. Some Russian who drank coolant might light up a bit extra but otherwise it’s just air blasts or ground blasts without anything igniting.
12:42
We’ll see 🙂 I find it hard to see the tactical wisdom in just crossing the river and waiting for a counterattack, fire and movement is the real deal and they seem to have moved south during the night which signals some willingness to move and with tanks in the lead we also have fire.
A bridgehead must first be secured to be held, you need a couple of points for the crossing and then get enough across to gain numerical and qualitative superiority so you can press on. The worst thing that can happen is what the Russians have done, you have to swim back. You also have to take the town of Daydiv Brid which has a bridge and which presumably should have been fortified, you don’t do that by laying a bridge and driving tanks over like the Russians without infantry in assault boats until you can lay the bridge and drive the armor across in peace.
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Think of it this way instead, 10-15 tanks have advanced 6km in one day in Kherson… Now they are supported by infantry so presumably 2-3 companies or a BTG with tanks in the lead. According to unit maps, you have the 80th Air Assault, 14th Mechanized, and volunteer battalions in that area. It could always be just them but if the 5th Tank Brigade is now equipped for night fighting and a battering ram ready to be used, it’s reasonable that they use it and that’s the rumor we’re hearing right now.
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How have the Russians’ 5-6 river crossings gone?
12:45
No, I would have bet everything on a civil-war attack and then lost my positive mindset.
12:52
Remember Izyum, official confirmation came about 3 days after they hit there and roughly at the same time as Nathan Ruser posted pictures of the washed-away pontoon bridge that had been there for a couple of days.
Then you can assume we’ll hear something from official channels Monday-Tuesday about Kherson.
12:56
Eastern Europe has sent everything they can, Poland must still have its brigades functioning but a lot of Soviet equipment has been delivered and presumably also ammunition.
Belgium, Holland, Portugal, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Sweden have probably sent quite a lot?
UK and USA are best in class as always since the Napoleonic wars but that Hungary, France, and Germany stab Ukraine in the back is not decisive as long as the USA and UK keep pushing.
13:17
In the east, especially the pocket/bulge north of Horlivka, the Russians have a significant numerical advantage and are pushing with their best units. You saw the footage yesterday of the last Ukrainians leaving Lyman, “by a hair” is almost an understatement. If you look closely, a leaf branch is shot off a tree to the right of the vehicle. That front section is not fun in any way and Ukrainians are dying. Severodonetsk, unlike Mariupol, is fortified with NG and territorial defense just like most of the hedgehogs in the east and in between are the maneuver brigades.
I think they are largely a bit isolated and have a task within a limited area and somewhat poorer logistics so it’s quite reasonable that they are worried, it’s like us in the thread being in the home guard and getting surrounded in Oxelösund. A retreat from Severodonetsk will also be unpleasant with probably some larger surrender. The river is however 25-30m wide in places so not a huge obstacle to swim across with any floating device.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1529891084347879427?cxt=HHwWhsC9ubz1obsqAAAA
13:28
I seem to have been a bit sloppy with FIRMS because if you run it for a week there are quite a few red dots along the front line in Kherson and also in the rear and inside Russian territory west of the Dnipro. It’s also a bit lively at the southern front right where you think the Russians are weakest.
Far from Izyum fire but quite a bit more than it has been for a while since we had all the fires east of the Dnipro below Kherson.
There must be something above normal in these areas, it’s unpleasant to be a Russian in a hole there.
13:30
Surtrutn, the fun thing about your pretty obvious post is that it’s exactly what the Russians are doing, they keep giving us time and space for their offensives all the time 🙂
13:49
Once at an exercise where I was exercise leader for an armored infantry platoon of conscripts who were blocking the way for a mechanized battalion (so a Swedish exercise, not full strength, you know how it used to look). They got their Pbv knocked out pretty quickly but the platoon was eager to continue so I cheated like hell and they conducted a delaying action in a channeling forest area between about 10:00 – 16:30. The rest of our side had ended the exercise around lunchtime and started the weekend. It ended with the last group lying out on a forest tongue before a field surrounded by 3-4 tanks standing in the forest, with their gun barrels aimed right at them and the tank commanders opening hatches and grinning. The group was really pissed off and probably even fired one last grenade at the nearest tank so it lit up but a higher rank than me on their side didn’t approve the shot for obvious reasons. After the fight their exercise leader came and said they thought they had fought the whole battalion before someone called and checked and they thanked for the best day their side had had all week. What I took away from that was that fire and movement is so damn important. Now this was quite OT and the blogger can clean up if he wants but I thought of it when I read this. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1530312035426353152?cxt=HHwWgIC-sYas4bwqAAAA
16:06
Hi MRF, I think the Russians were at the MIR hotel on the outskirts of Severodonetsk quite recently so it’s a long way before a tactical retreat from Severodonetsk is needed. The river is 25m wide in places like a swimming pool and something that floats you can get across pretty quickly.
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If we entertain the thought of a tactical retreat from Severodonetsk which in this case would mean trying to swim across the river before the Russians reach the shore and get a firing lane on the last defenders, then you have Lysychansk (however the hell you spell it…) on the other side of the river. That looks like a good defensive anchor point and as long as you can push back the Russians north of the Severky Donets, that line should hold and the transport route be open.
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Now this whole area is meant for mobile delaying actions and just west of the provincial border of Luhansk Oblast lies the next big defensive line and after that you have Slovyansk-Kramatorsk. There is no shortage of destroyed cities in Ukraine and I don’t believe for a second that Severodonetsk would be the straw that breaks Ukraine’s will to ask for peace.
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Don’t get me wrong, the video when they drive like car thieves out of Lyman and branches fall from the shooting in the street run gives me a sinking feeling in my stomach.
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Ukraine has what they need now, they are ready to start, now let’s let them go and cheer them on to the finish.
16:18
The first thing Mr Bean posted yesterday was that they had crossed the river at several points, but yes, you have a bridge in the middle of the city which would be quite suitable to roll over. We know there is fighting in Bryschynske because there is fighting there; logically, they should have spread out S, SW, and W and then defend eastward, and they can stand in other communities just as you write, but there has been no fighting there. Mr Bean is probably keeping an eye out for more place names, let’s hope. It should logically be a bridgehead and they should logically exploit the element of surprise to try to take as much as they can before the Russians roll up their defense. We will probably know in a couple of days how far they got before it stopped, if it stopped. Ideally, we want them on the opposite side of Kherson.
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This is also not a Kharkiv offensive for the simple reason that it is still a prioritized area for the Russians, so trying to sneak up with what they have and add some territorial gains is pointless, and of course the command understands that too.
16:33
Jumping on Surtrutn here, pretty open to sitting and translating but it would be fun to read.
On some front sections in the east, it is as you describe, but if it had been like that at Kherson, Donbass, the southern front, and Kharkiv, things would have moved more, I think.
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What I guess you are describing is how it looks at Popasna and Severodonetsk, mainly Severodonetsk, and a retreat from there is purely tactical and not something you win the war with.
17:33
Reports unfavorable to Ukraine should probably be treated cautiously by the West; as long as Ukraine wants to retake its land by force, we should cheer them on until they have done so. There are quite strong forces for a compromise solution right now, which is unfortunate. That said, you are absolutely right regarding the information and that all keyboard warriors are guessing from the same information with a few exceptions; the worst is when you get four sources you think are independent but they have all gotten information from the same original source. CNN has shown very detailed satellite images and US reconnaissance is better than that. You can be quite confident that the US/Ukraine have a clear picture of the situation, so if they believe they can hold 5-6 brigades in reserve, it is because the front is not about to collapse.
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Sure, sometimes wrong information is taken up and there are different schools of thought in the thread.
One thing I have seen, however, is that when I try to sum up the whole picture, it is always in Ukraine’s favor, so my pathological belief in a Ukrainian knockout victory is based on all the data I go through pointing to that 🙂
It could have been that Ukraine was deploying old T62s and Russia had trains full of T72s with full night combat equipment, and then most would probably feel that a compromise might be better than losing the whole country. There, I think Putin would have taken the whole country in that case, but just for the sake of the exercise.
19:34
If we are to comment on Severodonetsk, I am of the opinion that the fighting units in the city should be evacuated across the river to Lysychansk before it becomes a retreat under fire OR if it starts to smell like encirclement at Popasna. There are 4 NG and Territorial brigades in the city and they should be allowed to cross the river in good order if it starts to become untenable. I don’t think those units are good enough to withstand full pressure and the risk becomes a larger surrender completely unnecessarily – we will see, so far Ukraine has only let one city be encircled and that was Mariupol. The river is 25m wide in places so not a huge obstacle to cross directly. Up at Kharkiv, Sumy, Chuhuiv there were army brigades and a front line with gaps, Severodonetsk is at the end of a bend and difficult to retake if encircled and it has no value.
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In step two, they try to hold Lysychansk, it looks like good defensive terrain and they can anchor in Verknokamyanka and hold the Seversky Donets to the north, now there is another motorized and a tank brigade involved in that defense plus all NG and territorials who retreated from Severodonetsk. This city also has no value beyond grilling Russian BTGs and should also be abandoned if the Popasna offensive gains momentum (before it does…) or if the Russians manage to seize Siversk.
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At Popasna, there are a few more maneuver brigades in defense and so far they have actually started to slow down the Russians at Popasna; it is very unattractive terrain to try to advance in. To continue the exercise, we assume here that the Russians gain momentum north from Popasna, which we have not seen yet, so it becomes a threat.
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Here comes a rather unpleasant retreat from Lysychansk, so it may be that they give up the city earlier because the next line is basically from Siversk straight south along the Bakhmutovka river down to Bakhmut. They probably have to break through the foremost Russian units with the maneuver brigades and then unfortunately some territorials and NG will have the walk of their lives. Siversk must be held and all river crossings over the Seversky Donets must be attacked. If Siversk falls, it gets a bit sweaty, so it is important to have a good overview of the situation and press the exit button in time, otherwise there will be losses and surrender completely unnecessarily.
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It could actually happen that Ukraine abandons both Severodonetsk and Lysychansk early because they do not feel they can manage the FedEx timing on this delaying battle.
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The line Siversk – Bakhmut lies outside Luhansk Oblast and there are theories that the Russians will stop there, for the sake of the exercise they do not, but that line would then be defended by 8 brigades (that have been in combat) so you almost have to seize Siversk with a larger numerical advantage for it to fall.
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The next defensive line lies at Kramatorsk – Slovyansk and down along the Kryyyi river (…) in larger communities and anchors in the Ukrainian ceasefire line outside Horlivka. Then we have what is left of 13 brigades and a bunch of volunteer battalions for that defense and what is defending Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. If you have come this far, you have basically straightened out the front line and the density of the Ukrainian defense is then quite high. If now the Russians get their whole Christmas Eve according to the exercise above, they shall push through 13 brigades and succeed with river crossings that so far have gone so-so. Here it stops if they have had incredible luck through three defensive lines and really spun up the Ukrainians.
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I don’t think we need to go into the defense line Dnipro – Pavlograd – East but the retreat described above is a tall order no matter how you twist and turn it. Now I wrote it above but I write it again that it could very well happen that Ukraine abandons Severodonetsk and Lysychansk so as not to risk being off in timing because someone forgets to give some territorial brigade the retreat order and then it becomes a movie fest for the Russians with lots of prisoners.
19:54
And here comes today’s best news.
The bridgehead at Daydiv bridge has been widened west to Andriivka.
We already know that there is fighting in Bryschynske south of the crossing.
Now it is official from Ukraine and we can stop guessing, it is an offensive 🙂
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3494628-ukrainian-army-launches-offensive-in-kherson-region.html
20:07
Now Liveuamap is up with blue rifles in Kherson, it is on!
20:46
The 5th Tank Brigade has been in reserve the whole war and should have combat value as high as possible.
They will take losses but if they can take the crossings over the Inhulets down to Kherson and stand across the river from Khakhovka as well as defend the island along the north-south road, it is game over for all Russian BTGs on the wrong side of the Dnipro.
After the breach, a mechanized and/or airmobile brigade will go on defense, probably one of the reserves with high combat value and a hell of a lot of image intensifiers.
Snihurivka is in danger.
According to Gammelsvenskby from another in the thread, there is artillery to hell now so the two artillery brigades have probably opened up.
If the Russians manage to retreat over some bridge, the air force will not hold back and it will be a costly retreat for the Russians.
I already had my little outburst of joy yesterday but it’s really fun to see three blue circles with rifles on Liveuamap, that point is so brilliant you can hardly believe it’s true and is a five-step rocket. It doesn’t matter what the Russians do here because they can’t plug all the holes.
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Destroyed T62s in the near future and pretty good that the Russians have emptied Crimea of everyone who can hold a rifle.
11:27
No, not fake news, Nathan Ruser has been very reliable so far and there are 3-4 OSINT sources discussing it independently of each other. He was the first with Izyum as well.
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We know – river crossing, Daydiv Brid, armor, fighting in Bryshynske.
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We guess – 5th Tank Brigade, night – night fighting, targets like Daryivka, Pavlivka, Shylova Balka/Kozatzke and defense eastward in the small communities that lie in a string along the road down to Kherson. You don’t take everything in one day but that should be what is marked on the maps with tank commanders, A, B, C, D etc.
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Speculation – there is no reason to make a river crossing and send tanks over the river without having a bigger plan than just parking on the other side and waiting to die as the Russians have done a couple of times, that doesn’t feel Ukrainian. Daily Kos talks about the supply route but there aren’t really any Russian BTGs further north on that road according to unit maps but maybe he has more info than the rest of us. The tactically smart thing is to deny the Russians the bridges as part of a larger plan to take Melitopol. You also have an excellent defensive line if they take all the terrain Inhulets – Dnepr – the communities along the NS running road. The artillery can provide full support…
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If you can plug the crossings over Inhulets there are 5-6 Russian BTGs moving on the west side down in Kherson.
On the east side of Inhulets there are then 3 BTGs, VDV, marines and a motorized. The two BTGs standing down by Kherson are probably worn out and rotated to guard duty and according to the maps they are on the east side of the Dnepr. Also consider here that all BTGs at Kherson have been there a long time and been in combat but are now in defense so they are not at full strength.
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Ukraine’s air force has started flying missions in the area – Mig29s that were in combat were escorting SU-25s striking ground targets and those were targets west of the Dnepr. We have seen many fires east of the Dnepr on FIRMS and that was probably ammunition going up and rear, artillery and staffs. We already know that a large part of the command and control has been knocked out so problem-solving capability should be low among units west of the Dnepr.
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And finally, if this was this year’s nothing burger why are they sending a battalion of T62s and 20 Grad systems up there as soon as the old scrap heaps can make it from Crimea? I have also only now understood what Erik14 wrote the other day, they have cleared Crimea of soldiers who can handle weapons from all branches and are sending them north, the Russians are panicking.
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Now anything can happen and above all it can be a failed offensive and there will be fog of war for a while here but these are communities being taken now, not forest like in Izyum, so there will be place names we can calibrate against. Now there are two schools in the thread and those who want us to wait with discussion until it is written on ISW but I think it’s fun to speculate in the swamp and you can do that 🙂