14:32
China tries to present a unified image outwardly but it is chaos. One example, when we sat in construction meetings and they were on the other side of the table and our side said something like “you have built this wrong, correct it now,” there were five minutes of harsh words we didn’t understand and then the project manager looked gently at us and said, “yes, no problem.” It was so obvious that the part we didn’t understand was a minor war and that some chair would be empty at the next meeting.
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The Chinese leadership is a number of families who probably have knife fights behind closed doors but outwardly it is a united front. They are a huge country and on our projects different groups did not understand each other but the Han Chinese are at the top. They are also at the beginning of their version of a market economy so my guess is that they are economically vulnerable. Then they are quite top-controlled so militarily they are better than Russia but not like a Western army. Overall, there is no chance they would manage against a collective Western action like with Russia if the whole NATO got involved. We have a job to do and if we do it we are accepted in the group. For them, it is about climbing social networks, how you do the job is irrelevant, who your buddies are is everything.
It is absolutely terrible because they have to flatter the boss no matter how he behaves. Someone once asked why they don’t stand up for themselves and the answer was, there are 1.5 billion of us, I can be replaced tomorrow.
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What I have seen when world events come up is that they are a counterweight to the USA, this was educated middle class but they are not pro-USA in any way but see themselves as an aspiring great power. They HAVE developed enormously since I started working with them, not quite a Toyota yet but they learn quite fast. Countryside – big city is not quite like Russia but they have large groups that are left behind and if one guesses a severe recession would lead to social unrest and 1.4 billion angry Chinese could probably be quite difficult to calm down. When some mortgage institute collapsed a few years ago they stormed the headquarters and kidnapped the CEO. That we would kidnap Ilja Batljan or the energy minister is out of the question.
14:36
Yes, that was a very balanced analysis and of course that is how it should be. I thought in the beginning that Russia’s leadership layer fell and they got okay trade agreements with the EU with democracy clauses. Right now, one probably just wants to see them burn up but there will be a tomorrow as well.
The free West has now awakened and may perhaps restore order and we get a new countdown to the next potential world war in a hundred years or so.
14:49
If Ukraine retakes Severodonetsk, one almost has to start recalibrating the analyses again because it would be somewhat incredible.
First, the focus point was Izyum which went as usual and then Seversk-Popasna which has gotten stuck and then they really went all in so they became completely red-faced at the absolutely most remote and hardest to defend point on the entire front and still get beaten. In defense, Ukraine is demonstrably unbeatable. Now you never know how many BTGs they have and in what condition they are but they HAVE thrown in Wagner, the other contractor and Spetsnaz in Severodonetsk together with some dozen battalion groups from all directions but they have probably been in varying condition.
VDV and naval infantry have been worn out in Popasna.
14:56
I have sometimes thought that this is the charm of NATO, each country has a smaller standing force that they can afford without exhausting the country and one can concentrate against any threat with this because there are enough member countries. Then they are relatively rich so defense against the East will probably be collectively paid by all members in the future I think so they don’t break economically.
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Then a solid home guard and conscription is probably not so bad at low cost for the countries that have that system because in a “major war” it is demonstrably numbers that matter when the polished elite units are gone.
15:20
Excuse me for being pro-Russian again but then we know that the 35th Marine Corps brigade is now in combat up by Kryvyi Rih.
https://t.me/intelslava/30758?single
The only reserve left at Kherson is the 45th Air Assault brigade.
So that is 8 brigades + 1 in reserve (32 BTGs + a reserve of 4 BTGs) at Kherson now alternatively if someone has transferred one or a few to Zaporizhzhia.
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We don’t know how many reserves the Russians have pushed in here beyond what is on the unit maps but the combat group with T62s and sailors and mechanics was one and then there were DPR rebels who are not marked on the unit maps. The city of Kherson should probably be avoided and denying the Russians retreat over the bridges should reasonably be the goal here I think if one doesn’t manage to cross the Dnieper just like that.
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I would probably think that the very best thing would be to get as many reserves as possible over the Dnieper before closing the bridges but then I have probably simplified this battle a bit too much.
01:10
Then you probably have to recalibrate your playing field a bit because if Ukraine has now managed to retake all of Severodonetsk and the surrounding terrain except to the east, which was the main battle objective for the Russians on the map, that speaks volumes?
It can’t have been two weeks ago that many agreed that Ukraine was finished, and a few days ago, including me, the main discussion was whether they would manage to abandon the city or be encircled.
Now it is retaken, yes, the positive vibe is bouncing around quite intensely now, because if you can retake a city where the Russians put everything and which is the hardest to defend in all of Ukraine, you can probably retake everything.
We’ll find out eventually, but I wonder if they didn’t hide their better forces in Azot and the industrial area and then struck just when the Russians thought they had taken the city. There went Spetsnaz, Wagner, and Chechens in large numbers. It can’t have just been a platoon of Americans who cleaned everything up.
Then we have the hit in Lyman a few days ago where higher-ranking officers disappeared in a small puff of smoke.
Now one wonders a little what will come next here 🙂
01:28
There is talk of heavy losses for the Russians in Severodonetsk but we never see that in the daily reports as mentioned.
After the big chaotic day, people don’t really dare to rely on Twitter analyses but want an official report.
13:02
I myself have early on expressed that Russia should not be given the opportunity for a stab-in-the-back legend because I misinterpreted this outbreak of war as 1918. After thinking a bit longer than whether I have beer in the fridge, the conclusion is that the fall of the Soviet Union was Russia’s 1918 and the war against Ukraine was 1939.
This actually had the potential to become our era’s world war because a couple of rogue states have stood on the sidelines and watched how it would go before they ran forward and slapped a white glove in the face of the USA and EU.
Personally, I think the Russians’ plan in theory was smart but they underestimated Ukraine and overestimated themselves, they probably didn’t understand that they had run an Afghan in all levels of the military. If the EU after three weeks had gotten Ukrainian capitulation in the knee, a Balkan that swore allegiance to Russia, and the Middle East and China started moving, we would probably have had difficulties maintaining a consistent line and given the Baltics to Russia in the process (Yes, NATO I know).
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What we are seeing play out now is thus 1939 and onwards and the only reason this did not become a world war is the Ukrainian soldier and the US-led rearmament since 2014. The only conclusion can only be that Russia must be stripped of the ability/opportunity to try this again. If Hitler had been given a free pass in 1944 to stop waging war and retreat to Germany without sanctions, we can all guess what would have happened, he would have run round 2 as soon as his Hitler Youth turned 18.
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Then we also have the Nagasaki effect here, especially if China sees that one can get away with such a major crime as this, they will mostly just be motivated to rampage around in Asia. If they see the prisoner Russia trying to communicate by letter through NATO’s dense network because they don’t even have the internet anymore, they probably won’t be so eager to go the same way.
But everything starts with Ukraine throwing the Russians out of its territory.