09:54
In Severodonetsk, they have probably thrown in Wagner, and I saw a video with Spetsnaz standing in the city, but who else is fighting there I actually don’t know, I just realized now. The endangered naval infantry and VDV are probably down in Popasna.
There have been rumors that the VDV is 90% wiped out (true or not…) and Spetsnaz is probably not in better shape.
The naval infantry has been driven just as hard, and reconnaissance too.
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What it looks like on the red team is the constant search.. On militaryland it says tactical group and then a name of certain units in Donbass, I have interpreted that as rebel battalions but am unsure.
We do have the names of some; O-group, Somali, Sparta, DPR-marines and a few more. Whether they have been full-strength BTGs or like the southern states regiments anywhere between 250-3000 men we don’t really know. If I had to guess, they are understrength.
What we know is that the rebels have been driven hardest since day 1 on the front line and they have the worst equipment, so if you ask me, they are probably starting to get a bit weary and eyeing EU membership. Quite a few of the rebel units can probably be likened to home guard but some units have after all fought since 2014 and probably have quite high combat value.
But sure, I have missed including them in Kherson for example, and only count ethnically Russian BTGs which is misleading.
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An important piece of the puzzle is the reserves they sent up to Kherson, 200 T62s, 20 Grad systems, a trainload of T72s and all with basic soldier skills from all branches on Crimea. So it is a composite battle group from several branches of soldiers with low combat value and substandard equipment. Then the blogger has posted that they are now scraping together 30-40 BTGs from this year’s conscripts and the officers are from the regiments so further training is impossible after that. This reserve will also have low combat value and mostly run around and die.
That is almost the very definition of rock bottom. It’s like when Ukraine armed the citizens in Kiev during the first days of the war when they just opened arms depots.
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Then you have the TikTok Chechens, OMON, Rosgvardia and FSB as well as probably GRU and the Syria-Russians. The willingness to die is probably quite varied here but maybe they mix them into regular BTGs or something? I actually don’t know what it looks like among these rear police units (except the Syria-Russians who are combatants). Since it is quite porous behind the southern front, one can guess they don’t make much difference except on Instagram in the Chechens’ case.
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Since Ukraine has taken the initiative at Kherson and up at Kharkov/Izyum, reserves/reinforcements will be deployed as they arrive. They will not gather 100-120 BTGs again and try a new push, everything is needed to try to plug the holes. It is too little too late and over time they are ground down and forced back.
The only place they will gather a punch is at Sumy/Kharkov where they take about 20 shattered BTGs or so and re-equip with Belarusian materiel and push in new personnel. It will be the Russian version of a Kherson and we can guess how that will go.
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The reason they can keep up the pressure is that they go towards zero in their attacks and then they don’t have to defend their country’s borders since no one threatens them. If Ukraine sent 1st Tank Brigade and 10th Mountain against Bryansk or Orel, it would probably turn out that the defenders there are quite sparse but now Ukraine is not doing that. That’s almost cheating.
10:03
Something that flew by the other day is that the Russians have started fortifying Kupiansk.
That is interesting because then we know they expect a Ukrainian offensive in that area and are going on the defense that far out, Ukraine is a bit east of Malynivka.
It’s starting to be time to look at how the offensive eastward from Kharkov could play out. The trick is probably where they cross the Oskil but I can’t really see Ukraine doing that without having taken Kupiansk and then having a defense between Malynivka – Kupiansk northwards along the Velukyi river.
Now Ukraine has surprised before so maybe they simply cut through down by the town of Oskil instead 🙂
10:12
I think they have gotten stuck in their expansion out from Popasna, isn’t it Berestove north of Popasna?
The idea was probably to link the two wedges so they closed in all defenders in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk but that went so-so during the big river crossing day.
If Siversk falls it is a bit sweaty but if you go by performance so far it will go and drown again.
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I am very impressed that Ukraine has not abandoned Severodonetsk and Lysychansk because then they have quite good control over what is happening around Siversk and Popasna. It felt a bit sweaty for a while but that was maybe mostly because the media amplified the Russian message so you got the feeling of encirclement as usual.
10:40
Saw a video on a pro-Russian site with the Norwegian band howitzers on heavy transport and there was a tank wreck by the side of the road. So that’s how quickly the material you send can be taken down. The courier company Globemaster also runs shuttle traffic around the clock but everything in the EU can be sent down by heavy transport.
I think Sweden should send Archer and strf90 for the simple reason that after this war NATO’s eastern front should get Western equipment and they are both very good. Instead of the tin can M113 and the lightly armed Bradley, NATO’s standard IFV should be the strf90 and Archer is a nice weapon system that many should acquire for wheeled artillery as a complement to tracked howitzers.
As far as I know, there is no other IFV in use with the same capacity as the strf90’s 40mm cannon but now I will probably be quickly proven wrong. It should actually be made standard throughout NATO but it has to be marketed…
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Have seen videos of destroyed Russian armor where the reporter says the word Panzerfaust in every sentence so there is probably some ulterior motive with the weapons deliveries where they have sent special systems, Bayraktar has gotten its own song and NLAW knows a kindergarten class what it is now. This could really become a massive export boost for Sweden and it’s for a good cause so send down a couple now that can show what they are capable of in combat before it’s the end of Russian tanks!
13:44
What is Daily Kos up to, in his latest update there is a map from Defense Intelligence that has a quite spectacular area of contested territory. I was about to grab it but looked at their own page for the map and then it is a map from March 19 before the Russians pushed further in Kherson with large red attack arrows that Daily Kos has removed.
That was quite disappointing.
14:03
So, for Kherson.
14:54
If you just manage Severedonetsk at the right time, it will probably be perfectly fine to cross the river if it becomes urgent.
There are several points that are 25-50m wide and in the worst case, the last defenders will have to dump all equipment and swim across. Azot was a happy news and that they have units in the city with some kick and not just territorial.
One can assume that they have let the weaker units retreat over to Lysychansk and kept a small but fierce defense.
Looking at the city, the Russians have now taken the easy areas and still have the industries left, it will not fall unless Ukraine retreats on its own accord.
It thus begins to look like the fate of Severedonetsk is by no means decided and it will probably be contested for a good while unless it is threatened by the Siversk-Popasna encirclement.
23:17
The toughest thing is that absolutely no one saw this coming, the best scenario was that they would manage to flee Severedonetsk before they were encircled. There was great concern that the entire front would collapse and then Ukraine hits with things no one believes they have and we have proof in the form of the international legion and happy Americans unloading in Severedonetsk together with journalists.
What does this say about Russia really, now this is the only damn city in all of Ukraine that they have declared they want, everything else was fake and white lies and they can’t even take a small hole at the very end of a huge arc, the point that is hardest to defend in the whole war.
Without in any way belittling Ukraine here, the Russians are actually completely sh1t, this is the Christmas offensive in Grozny all over again just closer to Europe and 25 years later and when you read about it you don’t believe it’s true.
00:56
Late meeting again, they have damn well managed to pick the best time. Last time it was a Friday I sneaked in a couple of beers and zoomed out when I felt safe but somewhat unexpectedly they wanted a review of a complicated dispute. Got a bit loud towards the end but with some luck it disappeared in poor language understanding, today we’re not taking chances so the beer crate is under the sofa until the meeting is over.
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Now that is completely irrelevant except that I am stone cold sober and entertain myself by scrolling through the Ukraine war during the meeting instead, you don’t dare to jump on Twitter information but have to rely on official statements and where the Russians are firing artillery. I am completely speechless about Severedonetsk actually and wonder a bit about what consequences it will have because now the Russians must send reserves there that they don’t have, Ukraine is keeping the pressure up at Kharkov and at Kherson where they had to send cooks and truck drivers and old T62s. Can the Russians let go of Severedonetsk?
FIRMS suggests that it is quite lively at Kherson and the southern front and it seems like there is movement near Baraklia which is a hit over towards the bridge to Borova. Ukraine is pressing everywhere they can it seems.
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Flew past something about the Russians planning a renewed offensive against Slovyansk and have sent down some mobile targets in the order of 22 BTGs there. We don’t know their condition and how many are new/old we don’t know either. However, it feels like the worst place to send all reserves and that is actually good. If they had invested in Siversk instead they would have achieved something. The question here I think is starting to be when the Russians can no longer plug the holes because there are no more reserves, when are we there.
08:42
You can probably safely say that absolutely no one saw the counterattack in Severodonetsk coming. So it’s Russian elite units (those that remain) against the national guard and territorial forces. The Russian empire is not exactly signaling strength here.
Doesn’t look great in Popasna either, and then they are supposed to try to cross the Seversky Donets again and take Siversk, and those crossings usually get quite lively.