16:12
Nice that someone is reading 😀
18:30
Yes, that was interesting. According to him, they have rotated away some of the capable BTGs and defend Kherson with Donbass rebels. Sounds like a good start.
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Some might be SOF and other aviation and we gladly assume artillery. Either Ukraine has already quietly received long-range guns or it is something else we do not know about. The Wagner camp was also far away and definitely not Ukrainian air.
I have guessed a bit of covert ops in between but know as little as everyone else.
18:52
It can’t be fun to be the commander of the Russian defense in Kherson now, 4 attack wedges and Ukraine is making advances everywhere. He weakens the city of Kherson to plug the hole in the Dayydiv bridge and then Ukraine starts advancing there too. He is finding it increasingly difficult to move reserves because of Ukraine’s air force and his artillery is going down battalion by battalion per day. Fewer and fewer generals respond to radio calls and large smoke plumes can be seen in the direction of ammunition depots.
19:32
It seems somewhat confirmed regarding the offensive near the city of Kherson (the western end of the front), as firsthand information has been posted in the thread from a person who is supposed to be fighting in the area, and Liveuamap dares to mark it since it comes from the Kherson municipality. The only one who hasn’t written anything is CanadianUkrainian 🙂
Girkin is sulking quite a bit now, someone also posted that in the thread above.
People are a bit more cautious after the big chaotic day…
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One can guess that it is similar near Snigurivka, Dayydiv Brid, and towards the Krivoj Rog direction, and I find it hard to believe that the line can hold for attacks at four points over any longer period, but we’ll see. I’ve also got the impression that there is some mixed group of Russians a bit closer to Krivoj Rog since they are firing artillery at the city and that they are basically cut off already as both the north-south and east-west roads are closed up there, but I usually miss some small tractor track that they then use and lay a pontoon bridge at some smart point and slip out.
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What I am sure of, however, is that they have driven reserves over the Dnepr bridges into the Kherson front, and that probably means two things: that they have not gone on the defense (yet) east of the Dnepr at the bridges, and that they did not send these reserves to the southern front. There are also quite a few firm fires inside the red team’s area at the southern front now, so it seems reasonable that pre-battle fighting is in full swing there as well. Saw some footage where I thought it was buried T62s that were knocked out, but it’s a bit unclear if it was that type and then whether it was Kherson or the southern front.
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We’ll see if Ukraine manages to close the bridges, and if they don’t manage to do that, the air force has the capacity to do a repeat of the Kuwait highway when what remains of 6-9 BTG, a hell of a lot of Donbass rebels, and all the rear and artillery make a mad dash for freedom. After all, there are only three points they can exfiltrate over, and when a bridge deck is clogged with burning tank wrecks, you have to try to push them into the water with other tanks, and when you run out of tanks and IFVs, no one crosses the bridge even if it is intact, and since no one communicates with each other during the escape, there will be a traffic jam a few kilometers up to the bridges that Ukraine can calmly work through. It might happen that some enterprising battalion commander lays a pontoon bridge, but Ukraine has all eyes on the Dnepr by that time, one hopes. Well, this got a bit too far, but it would be fun if we got Iraq War 2.0 🙂
19:56
I always bounce up and down over the slightest thing, and Liveuamap is quite far from an official confirmation, which one felt was needed after the big chaotic day. We’ve seen broad pre-battle fighting for about a week, and there have been smaller advances since June 4-5 or whenever the crossing at Dayydiv Brid was, so it is likely that they will attempt something. Everything except west of Kherson is probably Twitter rumors, but it seems reasonable that they are pressing everywhere, and Girkin, who is on the dark side, has hinted for quite a while about a Ukrainian buildup now.
If you want to hedge your bets, if they don’t make progress now, they will try again soon; they have the capacity for it, and it is a battle that must be won.
20:41
Yes, now CanadianUkrainian has really gotten going here, and half of the place names can’t be found. I think that if this is a serious attempt, they have the night to do it and at least one brigade fully equipped for night fighting, or it is another positioning where they take Snigurivka, expand the bridgehead, and then creep closer along the M14, but according to various sources, it is advancing quickly, so why stop.
21:36
Yes, they have weakened the southern front and the Kherson front while Ukraine has been able to defend the eastern front and build up an offensive reserve.
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A video from CanadianUkrainian (yes, I know you can never aaaaalways tell if he is trolling or serious but…) showing M113s advancing. A lighter narrow tongue with forest on both sides, which exists in the Kherson area, and if so, it must be the 5th Tank Brigade on the move, one would guess, since they are the only ones who have gotten a refit with M113 down in that area (I think).
I don’t dare bet on this one, but it would be fun if they have put it on the move, then they mean business.
12:10
The link below is Zelensky’s speech; it is not a speech of a loser or in desperation, but neither of a winner, yet. Now we must do everything to win rather, the coming month is crucial.
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/06/11/now-all-ukrainians-must-be-a-united-nation-that-is-fighting-and-doesnt-allow-the-world-to-divert-attention-away-from-the-events-in-ukraine-address-by-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy/
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At Kherson there are now daily videos of destroyed artillery and supply depots, most recently yesterday they took out another general at a staff post and an ammunition depot. This time we got it geolocated and it matches well with the fires in FIRMS that have appeared in recent weeks east of the Dnipro. We have interpreted it as strikes on the rear, which it also seems to be mixed with some forest fire.
– My interpretation is that Ukrainian artillery has a strong position at Kherson and can strike Russian targets while being relatively safe themselves; sure, they take losses but they are not knocked out at the same rate as the Russians. The video someone posted yesterday in the thread was air bursts over a Russian Grad battery (I think) so soft targets where they got area coverage fire and not guided.
-We have also seen “traditional” artillery where they bracket the target in a couple of recent videos from Kherson/Southern front, so Ukraine is probably going all out there. After all, there are 4-5 artillery brigades at the southern front and Kherson.
I know these have been posted but I am always second and have to try to keep the style as last time on the ball.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1535349374452219906
https://mobile.twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1535357318740729857
https://mobile.twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1535354930285924353?t=vB1ez4FsACkdGR-Qg2L-IA&s=19
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A couple of days a week we get bits of information that Ukraine’s air force is very active at the Kherson front and often strikes gathered targets. I interpret this as the Russians trying to plug the holes Ukraine opens and when reserves move up towards the combat area on the road, the air force or army aviation strikes.
The Russians fly over the area but there is always some loss and you can be sure there is already a quarrel before the daily briefing now about who will fly over Kherson, no one wants to…
Ukraine naturally has the strongest air defense umbrella they can over the Kherson front.
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We know the Russians have mobilized T62s, there was writing the other day about older mines and old artillery and a lot of BTGs from the deep defense are previously destroyed shells. How much they have rotated away to Severodonetsk and Popasna we do not know but at least Spetsnaz are in Severodonetsk and before that Lyman we know. One should be very clear that if Russia had T90s, Uragans and Pions available then they would have defended Kherson and the southern front with exactly that and if they had enough fighter aircraft they would have total air superiority. Losses do not affect them – they are weak because they have nothing in the pipeline (now). The tactical adaptations we see are because they have to, Lancaster’s artillery running around like hunted game was not a display of strength and then that Lancaster is scared of shooting and stumbled on everything made the video even better. The Russians also lack competence now, not just individual soldiers/specialists but to assemble reserves into functioning units with combat value. It is easier in defense but it still has to work and above all, if Ukraine can achieve a breakthrough that the Russians must plug by conducting active combat, they lack that “competence” now.
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The free war behind the southern front and Kherson is extremely active, there are lists of destroyed targets and there are tons. This spreads general unease among the Russians, the enemy is all around us and then you sleep poorly. In the short term there are 2-3 offensives to be played out, retaking Kherson and preferably locked-in BTGs, an offensive north of Izyum and an attempt to take Melitopol. When that is done, Ukraine has the key to Crimea and Putin can do nothing. So far it has played out and so far Ukraine has resources and an opening as the Russians have exhausted themselves out east.
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At Kherson they have conducted their “reconnaissance attacks” which is a huge simplification but at least they have not sent the 5th Tank Brigade forward on a dark night and thundered towards Khakovka as hoped. Girkin is probably the most pessimistic about the Russians’ chances of survival and we will see what he writes next.
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When we get there, Putin cannot freeze the conflict and the West has seen that Ukraine can if they want and then everything else will come. According to previous, Ukraine must not exhaust its maneuver brigades as they are needed to hold their very long front. The Russians will prepare for round three, they have some armor left and according to the blogger this year’s conscripts are on the way. Round three for Ukraine is really to retake everything. They will go east of the Oskil river when they can, perhaps in connection with the Izyum offensive if it goes well but then remains Donbass proper which must be taken by force and there you probably have to take it meter by meter.
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This is what takes time and then you also have to strike Russian logistics to starve them out as otherwise it is a small geographic area with many cities where the Russians have dug in. This last part has not yet played out but Ukraine is currently conducting an ENORMOUS mobilization where they get Western European training and materiel.
The buildup for what we see playing out now has already happened, what they are mobilizing for next is the retaking of Donbass and defending the front when the war is over. However, you can see the shortage in Western weapons in light of Ukraine now needing tanks, IFVs and artillery for a million men…
All of Eastern Europe has their workshops open for Ukraine so much can be repaired but a few hundred M113s do not go far when the country is at war footing. Ammunition factories are probably working at full capacity and a lot of materiel is coming in but much more is needed.
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We should thus have confirmation and good news quite soon as the decisive battle is won but then it takes a long time to win the war.