11:59
According to Twitter rumors, things are also in full swing along the southern front and just like in the thread, Twitter guesses that Melitopol is the target.
According to ISW yesterday, June 11, the three attack points at Kherson are now areas with “significant fighting” and “Ukrainian forces likely resumed counteroffensives northwest of Kherson City on June 11, south of their previous operations”.
I have always thought that ISW is balanced and a very quality publication that is rarely wrong 🙂
(notably, they are no longer a week behind…)
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Now everyone, including myself, wants to see something at Kherson like a photoshoot at Khakovka but if you take a grown-up step back – while all the media stumble over each other in their eagerness to report that Ukraine is about to lose the battle on the eastern front, that there is desertion and running out of ammunition, Ukraine has gone on the offensive along the entire Kherson front and a long section along the southern front. Some time ago they crossed Dayydiv Brid and then pressed at three points along the Kherson front. After that, the Russians have spent some time driving up reserves that have been shot away on the way and tried to plug the holes and now it is a much stronger attempt, I get the impression, which also includes the southern front. They are really going all out here. One has to be careful with UkrainainCanadian but there is a horde of other Twitter generals who think the same.
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Then whether it is another round of positioning or a serious breakthrough attempt we do not know yet but Snigurivka is probably in danger. That said, a retaking of Kherson and capture of Melitopol is underway even if it takes time. We have basically always said that we will not see mechanized warfare on a large scale but that Ukraine will work its way forward community by community with its 3D warfare and the free war is certainly active in the area now and the artillery seems to almost have the upper hand locally there. What might happen at the Kherson front, however, is a Russian collapse if there are many DNR rebels lying in the trenches because capable BTGs have been rotated away to Severodonetsk and that there will be a bull rush towards the bridges but we have not seen that yet. That thing about DNR rebels is information from Girkin, it should be added.
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Yesterday 7 artillery pieces were also lost so continued artillery duels which Ukraine thus wins.
11 tanks is quite a high number, now not all are destroyed at Kherson but if they were low on armor there and at the southern front it can quickly run out. I also think Ukraine can take down Makarov here on the national day.
Apparently Ukraine is grilling BTGs in the famous forest area W of Izyum still, we will see which army gets wiped out this time 🙂
12:10
All dark empires end the same way, the free world comes together and kicks them until the spasms stop.
Because Putin is a bigger bungler than all previous evil emperors combined, Russia’s time at the controls was very short. We all know now that they planned to take as much of Europe as possible so lack of ambition was not the issue at least. Had this gone their way, the Baltics and Poland would have been number two with China’s help (meaning China starts swinging its saber in Asia so NATO would have a two-front war) and a bigger war in MENA where Israel’s survival was at stake. The problem then would not have been that NATO did not get involved but that NATO had nothing to send.
If Russia had not run an Afghan, there would have been 9,000 tanks left after this war, roughly.
We have already reached 1944 for Russia but instead of running over the country, it is encapsulated in NATO and has a tight leash with restrictions to pacify the country.
The free world always wins, Napoleon learned that the hard way and Mongols and other invaders have always been beaten sooner or later. Today Europe also stands united which is new.
12:54
OIXDER, he is a bit of a mystery, often right and early and many have debunked him as a basement-dwelling keyboard warrior. The truth I do not know. According to himself, the other guys are at the Kherson front so right there it might be firsthand information if we are lucky.
Yesterday I almost latched onto the film with the M113 on the highway because then the 5th Tank brigade is on the move, I park that and then we will see in a few days if he was right or not.
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With all that said, he is among those you run to and check in with when things start happening at Kherson 🙂
Then I think this, many write that he has no respect for those who fight, what if he actually is legit and there are 4 Canadians fighting at Kherson and half the world is bullying them so you have a point there. I am mostly a bit cautious because I do not yet know how to evaluate the source, I might have been a bit unclear.
13:36
The Russians have definitely concentrated their artillery in the east and I think Ukraine has sent quite a few 777s to the east, they started in Kharkov, Izyum, the river crossings and now at Severodonetsk and Popasna, tour-de-777. They are spread across brigades I have read somewhere and are probably a bit here and there now.
The conclusion is then that the “other” artillery has probably been sent to Kherson, and maybe the southern front. How many is unclear but there are probably +100 more delivered in various versions. We have seen Cesar in action and they have knocked out 80 targets in a few weeks.
What we know is that the 55th Artillery brigade has received Cesar and then one can assume they have received a few more.
If you work competently with the artillery, Russian artillery probably cannot take them out except with lucky shots and if you deny Russian air access behind the Kherson front they are quite unthreatened.
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Ukraine has five artillery brigades in Kherson – southern front which is an enormous concentration of barrels and each brigade also has its own artillery. We have seen recent films of firing coordination so probably everything is used against the Russians, new and old. Ammunition depots go up in smoke daily and the lottery is like a scratch card nowadays when it comes to artillery so a lot is happening there.
13:57
40 BTGs in reserve that are barely combat-ready, previously knocked-out BTGs that have been empty shells that they are trying to fill up.
It is really bad with reserves for the Russians now, in other words.
And on the Ukrainian side, Starsky was right, they are trying to bribe their way into a position in a fighting unit.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/invaders-keep-at-least-40-battalion-tactical-groups-in-reserve-intelligence/
14:58
A small reflection here on June 12th, besides the fact that there is a general who failed to accomplish his task of taking Severodonetsk on June 10th and we send him a thought now as he is to lead from the front, is that the bow/pocket north of Horlivka has held.
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One can probably safely say that the Russians have thrown in exactly everything they had against it and it held. I would have thought that they would gradually withdraw at least to the Seversk – Bakhmut line but that did not happen. Considering that the Russians have burned through BTGs they cannot replace, a reasonable conclusion is that it did not get any better than this for the red team. Today we see the maximum extent of Russian conquest in Ukraine (I will probably have to eat my words immediately when they come up with something smart for once).
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To understand how critical it has been, Ukraine has deployed units from the 92nd Mechanized in Severodonetsk and that brigade is up east of Kharkiv. It has probably been quite intense, one can guess. The positive is that Ukraine has been able to build up offensive capacity on the southern flank and quite surely also enough for a strike north of Izyum/the Oskil river with the 1st Tank brigade and mechanized brigades. The shortage of artillery ammunition probably also has to do with Russian air activity and difficulty in supplying. We have probably reached the famous peak for Russian conquest which is somewhat of a milestone.
15:03
It really spins when you think that Ukrainian units have almost fought over getting deployed to the eastern front and that they have conducted this battle without faltering. Even the International Legion that was sent into Severodonetsk when things looked bleak did so with a broad grin. There is not the slightest sign of declining combat value in Ukraine here and yet it has been the WW2 eastern front. Historians will catch up eventually but reasonably it must have been 5:1-10:1 in some places on the eastern front when the Russians pooled everything they had to take some settlement and got beaten.
15:25
How much does an Abrams weigh?
Now that Germany is flat-out refusing to allow any country to send Leopards but it has gone well with fighter jets and heavy artillery, a MBT is next on the list.
Why can’t the USA send them?
Two weeks with a Globemaster and you almost have a brigade of Abrams and the USA and EU have already trained Ukraine on all weapon systems that could be relevant now.
I change my mind a bit, they are already prepared at a base in Europe with a Ukrainian crew and just waiting for a go-ahead.
F-16s are probably not far off either.
19:17
It is chaos in the daily reporting right now as none of the usual sites are being updated but this is the latest situation report from Kherson, so it seems that Blahodatne belongs to the blue team now after yesterday.
”In the South Bug area, the invaders are trying to hold their former positions and fire on units of the Defense Forces.
The enemy fired from artillery and jet artillery in the areas of Osokorivka, Trudolyubivka, Shiroke, Dobryanka and Blagodatne”.
21:03
That is probably what the 5th and 1st Tank brigades had hoped to have practiced while they were refitting. They also have night fighting equipment for all vehicles and the mechanized battalion too, one can guess.
We have seen a video of mechanized combat up near Kharkiv that looked okay and I think that if you can during conscription get a year group to conduct mechanized combat at battalion size, it should be possible to get the Ukrainians to do it?
Their officers have been trained in the USA since 2003 and the whole army has received Western training since 2014.
However, you do take quite large losses if you put a brigade on the move and everything does not go according to plan, so that might also play a role?
10:55
I have only recently understood that the city of Dayydiv Brid was lost by Ukraine but that they have a large bridgehead V beyond it.
Then the counterattack against Dayydiv Brid must almost have come from the SE rather than SW, whatever significance that might have.
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I am of the opinion that there are higher tank losses because the fighting is at Kherson but of course I do not know that. I think it is fighting in built-up areas or forest on the eastern front and it should not be the Russian version of mechanized warfare there (driving over a field and dying). At Kherson, however, they have been forced to plug a hole and that means driving up reinforcements on the highway in an area where Ukrainian air is active.