12:36
MRF, I missed your reply to me yesterday for some reason. Despite a pretty neat attempt to show that you don’t do any of the things I attribute to you, you failed to keep the tone in the discussion under your own post yesterday where the very purpose of your post was to show that you maintained a good tone. That doesn’t prove my point in any way but if you yourself apologize for something you write, then according to yourself you have crossed a line that you think you need to apologize for, right? (this was not directed at me and I’m not writing that).
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Apart from some points below, you do provide a balanced picture and I absolutely can’t demand that you don’t write anything under my posts, you are welcome to do so, I just wanted to stop this discussion. However, it would be nice if we could keep to the facts and not get personal now after this. I thought you made it quite clear in your own post yesterday that you didn’t appreciate being called a “Putin troll” so I’m probably not alone in not wanting labels stuck on me 🙂
(being called positive with some reinforcing word before I guess I can live with).
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I constantly evaluate sources because they change all the time and when I believe I have reliable sources for what is happening on the ground, I write it in the thread and put a positive spin on it, I also mock Russia because I think that’s what one should do, they are a criminal organization that happens to be a country with nuclear weapons and history. I try to point out when I go too far but when it goes too far, half the posts end up just being excuses and boring to read. Then we have the “shit happens” department and that it’s war on top of that – now I have been as clear as I can be.
CanadianUkranian is a minor mystery for example and I’m still wondering how to evaluate his information.
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When you say that none of my scenarios have come true, that is a perfect example of how we evaluate information completely differently. I think none of Russia’s scenarios have come true at all. The first week of the war my plan was that if Russia got half of Ukraine up to the Dnipro then that was a win for Ukraine, that’s exactly how little I had listened to LW 🙂 Now they can’t even take Severodonetsk which is difficult terrain for Ukraine to defend. Then I AM early to want to discuss different developments because that’s what I find fun. When DN writes that an area has been taken and the discussion starts when everyone thinks they can air their thoughts, I get tired and sit and google another front section where I think things should move soon.
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The only thing I really react to is that you often come back to the idea that there (should) be a “negotiated solution” for Donbass and Crimea and that you believe the war has stagnated and that we are in a frozen situation and that maybe one should recognize that and find a solution for a frozen situation. I understand that I don’t become completely rational when we start discussing that because those are red lines and a win for Putin (in my opinion) and as long as Ukraine doesn’t discuss it in those terms themselves, I oppose it.
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Considering that the doomsday doctrine never wants to roll over and die, most recently in DN this morning, I think a positive spin is quite important because much of what Ukraine itself says never gets out. Zelensky’s speech the other day was quite clear – “we will retake Crimea and Donbass,” and the US speech likewise – “we give Ukraine what they need.” You, like me, grew up with Yugoslavia, Iraq, the Syrian war, Afghanistan, all conflicts in Africa and see just like me how the West has acted very quickly and decisively here. In some kind of normal situation, you would discuss for a couple of years first whether it is war or not and then when you finally decided and wrote your condemnation letter, the aggressor has already won the war.
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The free world has united in the way they do in system-threatening conflicts and that means Ukraine has its hands in well-filled pockets and access to weapons systems that are generations ahead of what the Russians are now rolling out, T62 and Mosin Nagant, and that the outcome can only be one as long as the UK and USA do as they have always done since the Napoleonic wars. Every war is won by the one who can finance their warfare and Ukraine can but Russia cannot. Sure, I want to see a quick end to this nightmare but if we don’t get that, we cheer Ukraine on to a victory later instead and every village regained is worth a sparkling positive post and something about how without moving images and today’s newspaper Putin no longer exists now that they had to give up Gerasimov.
13:02
You wrote something smart yesterday under my Izyum post that I probably didn’t quite understand and then other things came up so the reply was probably mostly missing because it was a clever post that I thought I’d try to kill with silence 🙂
Of course Ukraine will cross the Oskil river, the whole area east of the Oskil river has no prepared defense westward since Izyum has been the anchor of the entire front but if given time there will of course be a defense there eventually.
What Ukraine, however, must constantly counter is a defense northwards up to the border as new Russian attacks can come at any time but they probably won’t forget Illovaisk anytime soon.
13:17
I think it seems like the vacuum between the Russians’ all-out war that has gone so-so and until they have mobilized for round 3 is now. Now, of course, it can be assumed that Ukraine does not have offensive capacity, but I don’t think we have seen the 1st Tank Brigade and the two mechanized brigades at the front yet. If they have offensive capacity, now is when they should strike. Ukraine has already increased pressure across the entire front with its quite characteristic – taking villages where they can – and at Kherson it is building up fast now, but we don’t see a breakthrough (yet). Now the Russians are not done with their earth-digging around Severodonetsk yet, and it is probably one of the dullest places on earth to be right now.
It’s unfortunate that Izyum is becoming a retreat since there is an outlet eastward, but it’s probably not a flag-in-top retreat but rather quite battered Russian BTGs slipping away.
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I have a theory, right or wrong, that instead of showing weakness and asking for weapons, one should hit the Russians in one place and then ask for more weapons to hit them everywhere. I base this on the herd mentality of an average group of Swedes who all wait to jump on the bandwagon until the outcome is secured and transfer it to the group of leaders of the free world. The US can afford anything, but some EU countries might still be a bit worried.
13:48
May I jump in with something kind of related. I believe Ukraine has ordered these Korean K vehicles that Poland manufactures under license. They are supposed to get the Krab, and there has been some talk about MBTs as well, but I’m not sure.
Something is definitely going on regarding MBTs, whether it will be Abrams or something else.
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Something is very strange because the Germans are always about business and will go over corpses, but in the Ukraine war, they are prepared to totally torpedo their future arms exports here, and that is quite un-German. Especially since they have sold tons of weapons to Russia despite sanctions. It feels quite off and that there is something underlying that needs to be properly exposed.
13:58
Very interesting that the DNR had a 1:4 killed-to-wounded ratio. It has been discussed that the Russians would not have that ratio, and those who have been used most recklessly are the DNR rebels, so the same should apply to Russian BTGs, or is there a difference between infantry and mechanized?
What I’m thinking here is what the Russians have left in their sad shells of BTGs if they also had a 1:4 ratio.
Now, it’s not the end of the world because if reverse Darwinism applied, there is probably a serious lack of all competence in Russian BTGs, really from battalion commander down to mechanized infantry.
19:02
Oixder, yes, but he did comment on my post 🙂
As far as I know, MRF has not received a similar reprimand from you when he called me “straw man,” “free fantasies,” “unserious,” and what else. You also haven’t commented on Tankfri’s two posts above and below where he writes “Snow mush, bullshit, nonsense. It doesn’t really matter if trash is presented in a positive or negative tone. It’s still trash” under my post (all quoted).
I may be wrong, but I don’t think I am the one who has crossed the line of decency in the larger discussion. Now, there was a post yesterday from MRF to me that I responded to today because I didn’t read it until this morning, and I think I kept my response very tidy and free from personal attacks?
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The point I wanted to make was that MRF wrote to me that he has always kept a good tone and that I mostly overreacted, and then there was immediate quarrel in the comments with someone else below. Now Tankfri has jumped in here and lowered the bar considerably as usual; is that choice of words then okay according to you?
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Quite consistently in this discussion with MRF, 5-6 other commentators have wanted to join in and do a Tankfri either as their own posts or in the discussion under a post that is not addressed to me.
19:08
That said, I have basically said my piece in this whole discussion and am more than happy to drop it because it doesn’t add anything to the thread at all; if it continues to be discussed, it will just be repetition.
19:19
This latest round of pro-Russian PR in the media is to say the least surprising.
We also have an entire agency that is supposed to counter this; can’t they pick up the phone and talk to the editors-in-chief?
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There is a huge risk here that all the countries that want to bet on the winner will abandon Ukraine if it starts to feel like Russia is winning. Ukraine needs, as said, all the support they can get here to take them to a win.
19:36
Daily Kos is not official at all, but he is quick on the ball and tries to stick to facts, so I think it’s worth posting if it hasn’t already been done, but then I must keep my style as the eternal runner-up.
If the front doesn’t collapse, this will take a while. You don’t storm across the fields straight down to Chornobaivka, for example, but have to, as Erik14 wrote, probably enter from the southwest. Why deepstatemap, which updated daily, chooses to clam up, only he knows; he used to make daily changes.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/15/2104271/-Ukraine-update-The-Ukrainian-counteroffensive-in-Kherson-is-driving-Russia-back-along-a-broad-front
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Ukraine is also pressing on the southern front; a few days ago there was a statement that positions had been advanced 7-10 km, and today a few more km. It is starting to get really red in the intended breakthrough area on FIRMS at least. My thought is that Kherson and the southern front go hand in hand and that Melitopol is the goal because it is a chess move. Now it may happen that we don’t get there, and Ukraine has surprised before and often. For example, when they struck directly at Izyum instead of encirclement and now when they go straight on Kherson from the northwest.
They are good at taking back villages from the Russians anyway.
19:39
You always want it to be true; it was almost the worst day this year when Gerasimov appeared in moving images and could sit upright on the chair. However, I believe, as you write, that such a monumental failure takes quite a toll on health, and he is well over 70?
The dwarf had a few hundred billion and could live out his life as the Russian version of a god if he wanted but bet everything on red and lost.
When you make your worst purchase in life but just a thousand times worse.
19:46
Apparently, they have put the DPR home guard on defense at Kharkov, Kherson, and the southern front and now maybe also in Donbass proper since Ukraine took back some villages?
This has allowed the Russians to pool all their capable units to Popasna, Severodonetsk, and the Izyum – Severodonetsk line.
A pretty dangerous gamble because then they assumed that Ukraine would not attempt an offensive but just sit in Severodonetsk and take it.
20:49
I think it tends to be forgotten that Russia has been rampaging since the 1700s and that the Soviet Union was one of the world’s by far worst oppressive regimes. 1989 – 2010 is just a parenthesis when the West tried to normalize relations but it ended in war and luxury yachts.
That Ukraine is resisting with everything they have is quite understandable, there probably aren’t many left from the Holodomor but it set the tone for how the Russians treated Ukrainians during the Soviet era and is probably what Ukraine suspects will be the outcome again if Russia gets the chance.
21:31
Now I think we have a new daily lottery line with 250 dead at the forefront and 25+6 armored vehicles shot down.
What is interesting here is that losses are going up while Russian attacks are going down.
In my world, that means Ukraine is inflicting heavy losses on the Russians when they go on the offensive and that is where the Russians are weak and don’t have much armor.
22:05
Who is it that is always on about HIMARS, Solros22?
According to this article, they will soon be in combat 🙂
It would probably be smart to unleash them against the southern front even though they are west of the Dnipro under air defense umbrella.
One should probably be careful with Donbass for a while or else you have to get rid of Russian artillery and start there but it feels like you could get Russian air on you at the eastern front and you definitely don’t want to lose these systems.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-transfer-of-several-m142-himars-launchers-to-ukraine-is-just-the-beginning-pentagon/
22:08
Could they have started early with HIMARS already because there are some red dots really deep on FIRMS behind the southern front but it could also be sabotage. Rear staffs, depots and staging areas outside artillery range would be perfect primary targets. I guess the air force doesn’t dare go that far but maybe drones?
22:09
The earth doesn’t spin if Johan isn’t last on all the exciting information.
09:30
A good lottery line today, although we don’t have full coverage in the official lottery line for the article below in Ukrinform, the losses for the Russians on the southern front are quite high and above all the Russians are now using Mi-8 in combat so they must be running low on alligators, which can be added to the list of identified weaknesses that is getting quite long now.
It’s good that the air force continues relentlessly and what falls under the term “missile strikes” I have no idea.
It’s also about time to strike the navy again but that will probably come.
Overall, I think it’s very clear that the Russians are struggling to plug the holes on the southern front. As soon as they try to move up reserves on the road, Ukraine is there and takes them out. With the US’s reconnaissance capabilities, it’s impossible to move at all outside fixed positions.
In Kherson, every fixed target is probably reconned by stay-behind units so anything that doesn’t change firing position every few hours is just a shell away from dying.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3507077-ukraines-armed-forces-eliminate-70-invaders-over-60-equipment-units-in-south.html