12:59
There are really a lot of videos of helicopters, advancing armor, more advancing armor, advancing infantry, destroyed Russian artillery, firing Ukrainian infantry so much that one almost becomes target saturated.
Of course, these could be videos from three months ago coming out now or it could be advances by several brigades in Kherson which one naturally hopes it is 🙂
There are maps now of contested areas where really wide wedges have been pushed down towards Kherson, Khakovka and from the east from the Krivoj Rog direction but I dare not post them as they are completely unconfirmed so far and I have to think about my reputation as a balanced and factual forum member.
13:40
That these three in the group would go to Ukraine to cheer Ukraine to victory we can be quite sure that is not the case 🙂
They probably prefer to stay at home in their palaces eating snails or schnitzel and being forced to walk around with the smell of corpses in an area where they can also be exposed to danger, they probably do not do that voluntarily.
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If it were option 1, they would have no reason to travel to Ukraine…
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It is probably not option 2 either because then a formal EU delegation would have gone and talked Zelensky to order.
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3, that’s where it starts to get heated but maybe not necessarily exactly so, an early probing to see if a frozen conflict could be arranged? We are probably not yet at the threaten-Russia stage, then they would have been much softer and more worried than they are. It is probably about persuading Zelensky to give up territory so Putin is satisfied.
They are fifth columnists and the fact that they so boldly dare to expose themselves surprises me greatly.
Or I am wrong, we will see at the joint statement which I am very curious to hear.
14:36
Now, as said, the area is highly unconfirmed but according to WarMonitor the Russians have tried counteroffensives in Kherson for two days which have failed and the Ukrainian offensive continues.
This coincides with two days of heavy losses for the Russians and they are not holding back so much that they turn bright red in the face elsewhere.
And that in an area where they have very limited resources.
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Then he writes that Russian volunteers fighting for Ukraine have captured Donbass Ukrainians fighting for Russia, everything is upside down.
14:38
It is also pleasing to see that the red indicators on FIRMS are moving closer to Kherson and Melitopol.
15:36
I take back my criticism of Macron, he seems to have been very clear with the only reasonable outcome according to the blog above, that Ukraine gets back all its territory and Crimea, my posts about snails and fifth columnists can be disregarded. France has also sent its Cesars to Ukraine which destroy targets daily so also okay on the arms deliveries.
I have always liked France.
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Scholtz has probably experienced what happens when you are unclear and try to play all sides at once, what has Draghi said?
15:40
Yes, exactly, we have kind of forgotten about the drones lately and all focus is on artillery but they can probably cause some disorder in the rear. Then near Kherson and the southern front it is boiling with infiltrated SOF and stay-behind units who are probably not idle either. There are fires down on Crimea now on FIRMS and 2-3 weeks ago it was completely calm there.
The fact is that one has been able to follow the fires at the southern front as they day by day move down towards Melitopol, quite fun to see.
15:54
Romania did not lack courage – the statement was that all the Russian war criminals shall be dragged before The Hague as the criminal rapists they are. One must assume that included Putin as well.
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From Mark Miley, Ukraine has actually received quite a lot if you look at total deliveries and then on top of that come all the workshops in Eastern Europe that refurbish damaged armor and according to Oryx Ukraine has captured hundreds of armored vehicles in various conditions that they can work on.
16:34
Girkin really speaks out here,
https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-putin-will-end-like-qaddafi-russia-will-collapse/
18:12
Podolyak visited the Kherson front and was really upbeat,
“Kherson region. Several km from Russian positions. Dozens of destroyed villages. Our guys are on the positions, in high spirits. We push the enemy back even considering limited resources. We lack only one thing – long-range weapons. In any case, we will throw Russia out of the Ukrainian south,” Podolyak tweeted”.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3508283-even-with-limited-resources-ukraine-pushes-enemy-back-podolyak-posts-footage-from-kherson-region.html
18:37
Then Draghi, Macron and the Romanian have placed themselves firmly under Ukraine’s flag in this conflict and as said, one must retract previous statements about snails and what else. So it was a very fruitful visit from the troika and suspicions were greatly dispelled.
A bit unfortunate that Scholtz did not succeed all the way but it may happen that a clarification comes eventually if it gets too hot at home. A delivery of Panzerhaubitze and a hell of a lot of Leopards would also send a good signal.
19:14
One thing I really can’t figure out is the eastern front, at the same time as there are supposed to be no heavy battles there are heavy battles. Three weeks ago Ukraine lost “50-100” soldiers per day and now “200-500”. On a bad day the Russians have thus found a way to quintuple Ukraine’s losses compared to a month ago without launching major attacks, but at the same time they are attacking. At Izyum they were supposed to withdraw while 20 BTGs were pushed down into the area, right now it seems the Russians are attacking straight south while Ukraine is kicking them in the side.
And so on almost endlessly, it is contradictory or it is as simple as it is war and some days the Russian gets the feeling and runs across the potato fields and other days he sits sulking in his trench reading on Telegram how they have soon won the war.
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Something I absolutely cannot figure out is the Russians’ numbers, I find it hard to believe that the DPR are better soldiers than the regular Ukrainian army and the VDV would be 90% wiped out and it has been like that with whole armies taking 95% losses. Just today we read that some BTGs had 80% losses but still attacked like Japanese at Guadalcanal, that is actually impossible in my book but maybe it works with the Russians because they have been promised that extra shot of really cheap vodka if they can return to the starting point on their own when the attack fails.
Also completely convinced that the losses are 3:1 and that 30,000 dead is accurate so +100,000 put out of combat.
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We have had some reports of new Russian materiel recently, one train of T90s, two trains of T80s, one train of T72s, 120 T62s and old WW2 artillery. We know they have brought up everyone who can hold a weapon from Crimea from various branches and really vacuumed DPR and LPR, they just raised the age to 65 or something…
Then we have the 3rd battalion in all regiments, this year’s conscripts who were supposed to provide 40 BTGs of 20-year-olds with three months training.
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This special school class should Ukraine burn through in a week so my thought here is that the Russians get competent reserves over time that we do not reach in rear cities like Belgorod and Rostov-na-Don and then they refit old destroyed BTGs and go again, they are deployed over time. The will to die among old BTGs is probably not great among the last 10% who have not died but they have basically re-established the unit from scratch. There is some “armor school” behind the southern front we read the other day which should reasonably mean that they train old armor soldiers to at least not crash the vehicle before they have driven it into the dug-in trench and then swing the barrel in the direction of the enemy before opening fire.
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That said, one should not overinterpret Ukraine’s losses either, their territorial and NG probably take the hardest losses and on the good side they have a functioning medical chain, reserves who already have combat experience, top motivation where they try to bribe their way into a place in a fighting unit and a rotation system where they replenish brigades over time so they do not become empty shells like the bunker dwarf’s counterparts. That is mostly the whole discussion about Ukraine not being able to go on the offensive but the factor that the Russians are building up a bit quietly may be quite decisive.
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The reason for my daily nagging about Kherson and the southern front is that it is the only front section Ukraine can get a win on unless they have sneaked up 5-6 brigades north of Izyum and strike but we have not seen that yet and there it is also wide open for counteroffensives from the north and above all not a chess move like locking Crimea would be.
We will see, Kherson and Melitopol are the best Ukraine has ahead on the map table and according to today’s phone call posted in the blog there was so much Ukrainian artillery that the Russian soldiers aged noticeably so they are not having a great time in the trenches up by Kherson.
19:24
Jo Scholtz has been sitting in the hotel room for a few hours now watching his comment get downvoted with some of the most downvotes this year and no one writing anything nice while Macron is being praised and even that Romanian is getting congratulations from prominent people all over Europe and invitations to lots of fun.
Not even a German can be completely immune to that kind of thing and exactly what you write should reasonably be countered by running onto the field with everything that gives a big hit whether it rolls or not, it has to look good on Instagram.
22:11
This is among the dumbest things I’ve read, Ukraine has already received 300 tanks and fighter jets and Europe is not involved in the war. Would different models be more of a war risk?
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3508605-macron-confirms-restrictions-on-sending-aircraft-and-tanks-to-ukraine.html
12:41
Russian artillery losses remain high in today’s lottery draw, 10 pieces.
I am wondering if it could be that in Kherson the Russians have artillery with shorter range and to reach, for example, Dayydiv Brid and the other locations, they have to move west of the Dnieper in an area where Ukraine has excellent reconnaissance from the US and their own resources as well as an active air force and army aviation because right now a lot of artillery is going down for the Russians.
Ukrainian artillery should be further away than the range of the Russian artillery and they have poor reconnaissance and an unwillingness to fly behind Ukrainian lines so it is relatively calm for them as long as they keep moving.