12:25
I know this is the wrong thread but quite a few years ago (2014-2016?? I don’t remember exactly) LW wrote about a serious recession “2022-2024”, could have been 2023 as well. It seems that prediction will age quite well.
I’m starting to read that exports are slowing down now and it’s not just house price crashes, soaring interest rates, inflation, insanely high electricity prices, crazy gasoline prices, and general gloom but also unemployment making its entrance.
-Imagine if we had our nuclear power plants running at 100% and could export electricity at today’s prices, the Nordics’ Dubai…
(sorry OT, will immediately go back to the Russian slaughter and launched T62s).
20:16
Guys 🙂 That medal ceremony where the most shining medal was for the most dead Russians included quite a few women which is equal and good.
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They also cannot “go around” Lysychansk westward and there are enormous fields of fire so it’s out of the frying pan into the fire as usual. What could be a bit dangerous is if Siversk falls but then they have to succeed with a river crossing and right now Slovyansk seems more like a flytrap for the Russians. Slovyansk is another one of those killing grounds like Severodonetsk that functions a bit like shiny objects for magpies it seems, the Russians just have to have it.
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It’s probably Zolote that Ukraine must start thinking about either relieving or abandoning and they are probably launching a counterattack there if one guesses because that defense has been very successful, it is attacked from all sides by fairly large Russian units. I read somewhere that the defense is 2,000 soldiers but don’t know if that’s true. It’s actually incredible that this pocket/bow north of Horlivka hasn’t fallen yet. It’s an area for delaying action that Ukraine has held because they can, a retreat to the line Siversk – Bakhmut is by no means strategic really and my scenario was probably that they would have retreated from that area.
20:31
Yes, one just wants this nightmare to end and step one is Kherson – Melitopol and that chess move. If Ukraine can’t manage that, I get a bit worried but right now most signs indicate they are pushing forward and that HIMARS has been delivered there with a stop on the way at Ormön. What is reported at Kherson is that Ukraine’s CAS is active and constantly striking Russian advances and therefore I think the Russians are taking losses. Ukraine’s artillery is also very active but Liveuamap only reports Russian activity. The offensive is a constant guessing game and the Twitter gods are even more positive than I am and someone interprets FIRMS even more positively so it’s hard to get an accurate picture.
Pretty sure it will go slower at the city of Kherson because they are now at the main defensive line and will probably have to enter from the west or southwest. Therefore, I think they will reach the Dnipro first at Khakovka and that’s what I’m watching, once they have done that Kherson is locked and then probably Melitopol follows.
According to FIRMS, it seems a bit quieter at the southern front = Zaporizhzhia, but it is often mentioned in reports so something is happening there.
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Kherson – southern front is anyway the key to whether the war becomes a quick (quicker) end or a grinding conflict over several years and one really keeps fingers crossed that this won’t be a ten-year war…
Ukraine as a country could probably function reasonably west of the Dnipro but it’s an open wound that never heals. If they at least can get back their 2014 borders and then defend the border with force, they could return to a normal state.
21:09
I’m waiting for a little surprise here, it has been very quiet along the Vuhledar – Horlivka line for quite some time now because the Russians are not making any direct offensive attempts there and Ukraine is lying low.
Now Ukraine has pooled quite a bit in the pocket/bow north of Horlivka and the unit maps are probably misleading but according to them there are two mechanized brigades in the area and the defense is largely Donbass rebels in the 1st Army?
So what could possibly happen is that Ukraine sneaks back a few villages/communities there if the opportunity arises. If it’s quiet, Ukraine uses that time to fill up companies with personnel and materiel, the whole brigade is not on the front line but a couple of battalions resting that are reinforced.
It’s not a priority but it’s the same for the Russians, they are weak there too.
If it becomes a hot spot at Melitopol for the Russians, the only reserves they can take are at Donbass and then they become even weaker there.
21:16
The fact is, if you think a bit more about it, you are completely right Thomas, the West has given up its colonies but Russia is an active oppressor in quite a few places and as soon as someone protests, they get war as a letter in the mail. When I did my military service, all the officers went on a sightseeing trip to Grozny to see the devastation, I never understood how they dared since it was probably still war but they were also at a gun ranch Russian style shooting anti-aircraft guns and RPGs.
It would be an excellent opportunity if one could break off those who want to leave Russia so the country becomes less of a threat, imagine if they had to send Muscovites and St. Petersburg Russians to this war, then public opinion would probably have turned against Putin immediately.
21:44
Seems like the EU leaders agree that Ukraine should get candidate status or whatever it’s called.
Officially, it should be decided on June 22-23, but it’s nice that the EU supports Ukraine and lets them start the path towards our community.
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Lysychansk is a veritable fortress that you don’t capture easily. The southern supply route is a bit exposed right now, but the northern one is open. What happens if the northern one goes down too? Ukraine can probably run supplies on dirt roads or fields at least until autumn? It feels spontaneously like that city will never fall and that all Russian attempts to encircle it will happen over open fields with fire from three directions and river crossings from two of the three directions.
If Ukraine conducts a tactical retreat, the next line is roughly Seversk – Bakhmut, and then we have the Slovyansk line – a ceasefire line if needed.
The Russians’ willingness to fight and die really surprises me every day; they are pushing forward as if nothing has happened with T62s. Any other country would have thrown in the towel and offered repairs at any cost.
21:51
Look at that, now he has marked Kyselivka for the blue team 🙂
Then they are at that valley from which the reconnaissance soldier posted his video, “10 km from Kherson” a while ago. After that, there is an open field down to Chornobaivka, so quite difficult terrain.
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I wonder if the counterattack at Tommy Balka and V ut was to rescue the units trapped in Stanislav. They were probably there for a counterattack against Oleksandrivka but then got overrun north of their position.
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Zolote is starting to look a bit risky…
21:52
Comfortable artillery range to Kherson now…
22:20
Wonder how Putin’s PR will spin the fact that Panzerhaubitze 2000 with German military crosses is in Ukraine?
Scholz is his strongest supporter but also almost an open target for Nazi references, I think.
The fact is that if you don’t call the Germans Nazis but continue calling Ukraine that, it becomes a bit wrong.
11:56
It was a bit disappointing that the Russian navy did not carry out a punitive expedition against Odessa and sink entirely under a cloud of Harpoons, Twitter rumors about sunk Russian vessels but as said, rumors and salt bucket.
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I also believe that a lot of these losses we see are at the Kherson front and that it is the Ukrainian air force and army aviation as well as precision artillery striking against the Russian advance to plug the holes Ukraine is tearing open. Sure, things happen on other front sections but the Russians are supposed to have adapted their tactics and attack in smaller groups behind a rain of artillery, and Ukrainian artillery is somewhat less active on the eastern front and works more as counter-artillery.
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At Kherson and the southern front, Ukraine has concentrated its air force, artillery, and pooled forces for an offensive. After they took the bridgehead at Davydiv Brid, Russia must be sending up reserves on the road and through known bottlenecks in an area where US signals intelligence is comprehensive due to widespread stay-behind/SOF. Again, there are Twitter rumors of heavy Russian losses there but the air force itself gives us updates every other day stating they have struck troop concentrations and not fixed targets or Russians in trenches. After all, there are not infinite BTGs at Kherson and it is a difficult area to bring forward reserves since it only takes eyes on three points to spot them.
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Russian losses are otherwise very positive because at this pace, they burn through remaining armor quite quickly and an artillery battery cannot fire tomorrow. T62s seem to be used in offensive operations now.