10:14
Eastern Europe has started its ammunition production, and there was some article about the USA having old factories for Eastern Bloc ammunition that they took out of mothballs. Poland is to newly manufacture KRAB for Ukraine, and I think I have read that Poland is license-producing Korean K tanks that Ukraine has ordered; they have also ordered IFVs or armored personnel carriers. I can’t vouch for that; it’s something that flew past.
Yes, it’s probably a joint effort here beyond surplus material, but the USA still has fairly well-stocked warehouses and can probably supply for a good while before it runs out.
10:16
Here you have a strong reason why Ukraine is sending HIMARS to the Kherson front immediately to knock out the air defenses.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3510537-russians-assaulting-sievierodonetsk-building-up-air-defense-in-kherson-region.html
11:40
Seems like more is going on between Kazakhstan and the Russians, below from a pro-Russian forum,
”Russia imposed restrictions on the shipment of Kazakh oil in response to Kazakhstan blocking 1,700 Russian wagons with coal
It is reported that coal remained in Kazakhstan due to European anti-Russian sanctions. In turn, oil from the republic was exported to Europe through the port of Novorossiysk, where mines from the times of the Great Patriotic War were suddenly discovered. The decontamination works will last at least until the end of the month.”
11:46
There is artillery ammunition (is that right?) that spreads mines over an area; they open fire on a height.
A perfect weapon against airborne landings or amphibious assaults, but I think the argument is that then you have mined land in Sweden, which is bad for Sweden. Then you have ARAK, which could be used against submarines, replaced by ELMA, which was developed to force a submarine to surface, not to destroy it, which was a disappointing reduction in capability.
We have probably also overinterpreted all missile and rocket agreements and probably none of the latter to avoid provoking the Russians. I’m more than tired of that now when they have started a war even though the rest of the world has tiptoed around with thick slippers and stroked them the wrong way.
13:01
Kazakhstan’s president Tokayev, who completely owned Putin at the meeting in St. Petersburg, how did he dare?
It is on Russian territory, and Russia murders dissenters every day.
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I took a look at the map, and if Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Finland, and Sweden join NATO, Russia is completely encapsulated by NATO countries and will have to start a war against Mongolia or China if the mood strikes. This is a smart plan the USA has had, and Tokayev’s somewhat spectacular statement must have been made knowing that they will soon be unreachable for the Russians, because Putin doesn’t seem like the guy who forgives easily, and Chechnya is there for everyone to see how a Russian punitive expedition goes. All the other -stans south of Kazakhstan become irrelevant if they join.
15:04
I have thought a lot about this, but while the Russians’ VDV, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, marine infantry, and Wagner have been seriously decimated, Ukraine’s SOF (a broad term for all who can conduct guerrilla warfare) is now a veritable giant.
There must be swarms of SOF everywhere except in Donbass proper, which is probably still a bit difficult to operate in.
A Vietnam-style fear of the dark is slowly spreading among the Russian units as this army of SOF gets decent night combat equipment and adapts to sleeping during the day and hunting at night.
18:22
I believe DefMon from Strängnäs has marked Russian units regrouping from the area north of Khakovka over to Kherson, a big red arrow. If that’s correct, they have had to choose what to defend and have chosen Kherson.
There is also Twitter talk of a Russian counteroffensive at Kherson (now that they are defenders), and it’s going as usual.
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It could also be that they have been forced to defend Kherson at the expense of the southern front, and nothing would be more fun than if Ukraine broke through there and shot like a spear down to Melitopol. If you interpret FIRMS as the bible, it’s calm right now at the southern front, but not everything that dies burns, except maybe a Russian full of moonshine.
There is activity at the southern front anyway, as Zaporoznye (designation for the southern front) comes up daily in reports.
19:02
To quote a popular game – suddenly it happens.
The southern front probably needs to be hacked away at for a while before you can get momentum; the Russians have built second and third defensive lines now. I had imagined night attacks on a larger scale than we have seen, but that didn’t happen.
I also thought they could roll up with their artillery brigades already, but so far they are hitting rear areas and artillery, and now they are probably going to hit the air defenses at Kherson as well.
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Part of the equation is the plan, but then reality usually knocks, ask Putin 🙂
If Ukraine can lock the bridges at the Dnieper and then attack at the southern front, a tactical retreat from Kherson is impossible. But it could just as well be that the Russians get worried about Kherson and weaken the southern front too much, and Ukraine manages to punch a hole there. We actually know that the density of Russian units is low at the southern front and that it absolutely swarms with stay-behind and SOF in the rear.
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Yes, it will be a chess move.
19:06
I think it is unfortunate that the eastern border of the free world has had to manage as best it can all these years.
They are arming themselves to the point of exhaustion but still cannot get anything that matches Russia (actually wrong since the Russian is what we have seen in Ukraine). NATO should have solidly armed these countries many years ago, not just stationed units from other countries there. F35 or Gripen should become the standard aircraft, out with all eastern equipment, etc.
00:01
Highly unconfirmed, so take it with a big grain of salt, but there would be VDV in the Black Sea Fleet so some landing capacity with marines can be assumed and according to our very own CanadianUkrainian, there is a punitive expedition on its way to Odessa after Ukraine cleared Snake Island. It almost sounds too good to be true in these times of Harpoon and as said, highly unconfirmed.
00:06
Forgot to write that I assume I am second on that ball. Then it could be that the Russian has realized that Ukraine now has range and that they left the quay out of pure self-preservation and went east instead of to Odessa but we will know tomorrow.
09:59
If one were to guess, the solution to the upcoming recession, house price crash, unemployment, insanely expensive electricity, general anxiety, and whatever else will be that Ukraine gives Donbass and Crimea to Russia. This will be a well-coordinated Kremlin PR campaign that Western media will loyally reproduce as usual. The pressure will probably increase on Zelensky; the troika will eventually threaten with revoked EU membership when things start going too well.
It’s probably fortunate that we have the defenders of the free world, the USA and UK, who do what they have always done since the Napoleonic wars and play whack-a-mole with rogue dictatorships and then refill the LNG stocks from the USA instead.
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The further we get, the clearer it becomes that Russia must be isolated behind NATO and then kept on a leash of sanctions so they cannot go to war again except with human wave Tannenberg style. Russia really is the psychopath who, when given the chance, showed no restraint at all and escalates its spiral of violence until it stops; the only thing missing is probably scalps and ears on a necklace. If you say otherwise, you have hidden motives for it, economic or geopolitical or even ideological, and then you need to reread the journey of the Norrland communists to paradise in the Soviet Union for calibration.
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Russia has always treated small countries in its vicinity this way if needed. The best scenario has been to be a raw material colony for the Soviet Union/Russia and for ethnic Russians to do as they please. There is probably a reason why Eastern Europe is sending tanks and aircraft to Ukraine even though NATO has an agreement not to do so and their governments have given Zelensky their unconditional support—they have experienced the Soviet Union. Now the positives outweigh the negatives, and it could have been infinitely worse today with Ukrainian capitulation and Russian focus on other countries and a Balkans that has sworn loyalty to Putin. We are close to a best-case scenario here.