12:15
The die is already cast in Ukraine and all they can do is step on the gas and then let the free West rebuild the country when the Russians are thrown out.
But yes, the system that existed during the Cold War, e.g. our wartime air bases and those oil bunkers etc., was precisely for a scenario like this and Ukraine should probably have prepared for it as well.
However, there is a big advantage – the Russians are running low on that type of weapon and all of Europe is spared and offers its capacity so Ukraine is not strangled in the same way as if they stood alone.
12:25
As soon as the first shot is fired the fighter jets go out through the bunker opening, it was some famous Russian general who said that, the one who came up with the revolving door plan that got stuck in the trenches in WW1.
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Sure, the West can wage a war of attrition against Russia but then Ukraine as a country is finished and then other rogue states will over time enter the geopolitical game. A reasonably quick end in Ukraine is a must.
It also becomes a bit of our time’s Nagasaki against China so they refrain from their world war in Asia.
12:27
I think the fact that we see T62s in combat in large numbers (120 + at least two more trainloads) supports what you write.
The Russians are completely desperate in their attempts to break Ukraine’s back and are going all in.
That they defend Kherson and the southern front with 1st Army and all the bottom scrap they can find is another, they are betting everything on red in the bow/pocket north of Luhansk and hoping for a breakthrough to have something to negotiate about.
12:33
Well said.
If I have understood this correctly, what has been donated now, the mosaic, has been the first shipment that gives Ukraine the opportunity to do what they are doing now. It is probably starting to run out of Eastern Bloc materiel but the workshops in Eastern Europe are working at full speed to renovate everything they can.
The US is supposed to start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and I still claim that I have seen that Poland will manufacture Krab, ptg and that K-tank they have under license and sell to Ukraine.
What Ukraine needs in the long term is a few models of decent tanks, air defense and long-range weapons.
Now I have written it too often but Strf-90 and Archer should have been sent yesterday.
Then I think NATO should arm our eastern front with decent weapons because now those countries are doing as well as they can and spending enormous sums on their defense while the rest of NATO (Europe) sits safely behind them.
14:40
I find it hard to see that the southern encirclement around Lysychansk will succeed?
There are two large towns to overcome west of Lysychansk – Vovchorayivka and Verknokamyanka.
Provided the Russians do not cross the Severersky Donets they can come right up to these two defenses without cutting the supply routes into Lysychansk.
A larger encirclement than that and you are almost at the next defensive line Siversk – Bakhmut and there are some natural formations in between that look good to park yourself for defense in.
It actually feels like if the Russians go all out to take the whole Luhansk oblast it will cost them an enormous amount of grilled BTGs because it is a formidable horseshoe-shaped defensive line for Ukraine and the smaller it becomes the denser the defense is and on the western flank they stand in the defense line Seversk – Bakhmut and lie in wait.
One can always hope that it is Putin’s will that the whole Luhansk oblast shall be conquered.
12:02
Solar panels do shine and the Russians are like thieving magpies so there is certainly a high risk that they will disappear 🙂
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In the thread when it went down to 10/16 and further there was a lot of interesting information. They have weakened just around Tokmak and T62 has gone on defense over at Vasylivka, he thought. That should reasonably be because the Russians are worried that Ukraine will go down along the Dnieper and lock the bridges.
Tokmak seems to lie “between” two defensive lines and Ukraine is standing north of that. The Russians probably have defense in all the villages down to Tokmak but with some precision artillery, drone reconnaissance and night attacks you can take a smaller community and go on defense and work your way forward.
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I believe the key to Melitopol is to create a lot of chaos from the partisans and maybe some crossing over the Dnieper north of Khakovka while pressing at Kherson and the Southern front. As soon as the Russians try to pull units away from the Donbass-proper line, Ukraine presses there too so it becomes difficult to bring up reserves before it is too late. Syrian units, i.e. ethnic Syrians, have apparently been seen in Melitopol so they absolutely do not have their best units in defense there. 1st Army probably has the whole front section?
High risk though for a wedge down towards Melitopol is quite exposed and you have to defend on both flanks.