11:48
Here you have the article about the US training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, someone asked yesterday.
We can all figure out that if they are training on that technology, it is because they will give Ukraine that technology.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-u-s-congress-is-initiating-the-training-of-ukrainian-pilots-on-f-15-and-f-16-jets/
11:52
Here you have, I think, a confirmation of our constant discussion that reverse Darwinism prevails among the Russians and that the elite is constantly wiped out everywhere and that they lack key personnel throughout the organization.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3513976-russian-army-lacks-pilots-amid-heavy-losses-british-intel.html
11:52
There was a pilot who managed to crash into a power line a few weeks ago, for example, so they can probably be a bit untrained and tired.
11:59
Yes, I think ISW is accurate in their analysis, I’ve always liked them 🙂
“Russian offensive operations will likely stall in the coming weeks, whether or not Russian forces capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, likely granting Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch prudent counteroffensives. The Kremlin’s ideological fixation on the capture of Severodonetsk, much like the earlier siege of Azovstal, will likely be to the ultimate detriment of Russian capabilities in future advances in Ukraine. The loss of Severodonetsk is a loss for Ukraine in the sense that any terrain captured by Russian forces is a loss—but the battle of Severodonetsk will not be a decisive Russian victory.”
13:35
Just my trawling on Google Earth and reasonable assumptions that they have gone on the defensive 😀
13:38
Ukraine is tying down Russian units in Severodonetsk and Kharkiv.
Putin is asking Belarus to move along the border to tie down units there and is mobilizing for an “offensive” against Kiev. It is twofold; partly Ukrainian units must go on the defense up there but above all, 15,000 Russians who are not down at Kherson and the southern front. I think Ukraine has more units to play with.
15:44
Good heavens no, it was part of the plan to take Kiev in a few days at the start of the war and it went incredibly wrong for Russia.
—
I don’t think they will get far with 15,000 men, either they want to tie down Ukrainian units there or they are worried about a Ukrainian offensive. If they go towards Kiev again, they are insane but crazier things have happened in this war.
11:16
Scrolling through established media, the Russians have taken the “strategically critical city of Severodonetsk.” Just as the blog writes, it is not strategic in the slightest; Ukraine has held it because they can and because it bleeds Russian BTGs in huge numbers. If the Russians had entered the forest area south of the city/industrial area, the defenders would have been trapped.
I also want to add that last time this happened, the media wrote that now the bridges were cut, making retreat impossible. The river is about 25m wide in places and it is not exactly spring flood now…
Ukraine is once again showing both its willingness to save lives and that they act completely rationally in all situations.
Now they have abandoned Zolote and Severodonetsk, which they held to inflict damage, and according to their own statements, it has been 10:1 situations.
—
Lysychansk… There is great value in running a Severodonetsk with this horseshoe because it buys Ukraine time and bleeds Russian BTGs, and Ukraine needs to take Melitopol before the Russians can set up a defense worth the name. Now, admittedly, the Russians seem to be preparing for Kiev 2.0 and have taken a page from Ukraine’s playbook, which is also positive because then they gather troops up there at the northern front. The Russians seem to have reached the southern defense of Lysychansk all the way to Vovchoyarivka and are trying to push west of that but have not advanced as far. If it becomes untenable or if the Russians manage to cross the Seversky Donets without drowning, Ukraine will simply withdraw to the next defensive line Siversk – Bakhmut, again no big deal, completely rational, potato field versus grilled BTGs.
—
Lysychansk is, however, a veritable fortress to the south with easily defensible built-up areas, cleared railway tracks, good fields of fire, elevation differences, and an anchor in Vovchoyarivka. If the Russians manage to advance west of Lysychansk, that is probably the risk, but the defensive line Siversk – Bakhmut then lies on the western flank of that advance and there are natural obstacles to defend behind.
—
A Twitter rumor claims that the Russians attacked with “conscripts” near Izyum and suffered huge losses. I interpret that as this year’s conscripts who have now arrived and are starting to die? Salt scoop and Twitter generals’ rumors.
There was also a user who tried to neatly summarize the numbers in DPR/LPR the other day, better than my attempt a week ago, and that the numbers are much higher than we have been led to believe since the 1st Army is quite large plus all other loose and paramilitary forces beyond the Russian BTGs that everyone constantly counts.
Where the Russians want, they can gain a local advantage sufficient to advance, but they take heavy losses and so far have not captured anything of value; it is in the very easternmost Ukraine that you still find some potato fields.
Ukraine also has to defend the front against Belarus where Putin has asked them to move units to the border precisely to tie down Ukrainian units. The buildup near Kiev is the same thing, to tie down units. One can hope that the general mobilization soon produces maneuver units that either take over the northern borders so Ukraine can move battle-hardened units to the fronts or that they are deployed in combat.