17:24
A bit risky since a counterattack from Ukraine can always come and then the post in the thread exists forever but I felt it was time to explain why I have been sour about Lysychansk. The funniest thing I read was that I was surrounded by uniforms who hissingly demanded more negative reporting 🙂 It hasn’t been the whole fuss about me being too positive at least these days.
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Now, as said, it is early and it can always happen that Ukraine decides to strike back at the Russians but we haven’t seen that yet and I have guessed that they don’t have those reserves available and that their cost-benefit analysis has given them that in this situation it is better to go on defense Siversk – Bakhmut. They had naturally planned to hold that horseshoe but somewhere they miscalculated the Russians’ willingness to die and especially how many BTGs they have managed to revive from the dead by completely reestablishing them (I think). This is something we have guessed in the thread the last 2-3 weeks but all sources have been poor at reporting this I think, one got the impression that the Russians had been on the ropes for quite a while now.
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The thought should reasonably have been that Lysychansk would become a potent Russian killer that maybe would be abandoned after a few months if needed, river on two sides, height, easily defensible buildings southwards, horseshoe and an intact defense line at the back. The Russians would run straight into it and die, kind of. This year’s conscripts in Russia got their first and only combat contact in human wave-like attacks with TikTok Chechens behind shooting them in the back as soon as they started looking around nervously and in the fields the T62s burned in large swarms.
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After the fall/tactical retreat of Zolotes I saw how the Russians just poured forward and exactly where they broke through was the point that would threaten all of Lysychansk which we wrote about in some thread analyses, the oil refinery with the tricky name Verkhnokamyanka and Topolivka. I think I wrote that they were the anchor on the western flank for the defense southwards or something similar. If they fell/were threatened it would cause a tactical retreat I guessed. I flew past something on a pro-Russian site that the Ukrainian defense had left a community a bit south of that in panic and that it became like a domino effect. I thought I saw that too because suddenly it went too fast, in a few days they were in the southern part of Lysychansk and had thus come up along the whole slope which was supposed to be impossible to storm up.
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A couple of sources I valued as credible and sticking to facts wrote about Lysychansk and then we got information continuously about which communities fell. As they fell I considered that the situation in the city became untenable from a defense perspective, the risk of being encircled was too high. I sat waiting for Ukrainian counterattacks from the Siversk-Bakhmut line but they never came and the Russians pushed forward community after community. We get daily which places the Russians shell with artillery for example. Now it was peak whining from me in the thread 🙂
I also made the assumption that it was not in Ukraine’s interest to communicate this sequence of events so silence from them was understandable.
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The information came that they crossed the Seversky Donets and that they got a foothold in the industrial area with the tricky name behind Lysychansk. There were enormous fields of fire up to that industrial area and incredibly good buildings for defense so that the Russians could bite in could only mean that the defense was too inferior to the attackers. Earlier attempts at river crossings went really badly so why would they go better now, but apparently the Russians got over. I have guessed low water level and mostly infantry.
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At the same time we know that the Russians attacked Slovyansk and Mykolaivka so I have guessed that some Ukrainian reserves were taken up there and also guessed that the defending maneuver brigades around Lysychansk would be a bit tired by now. The Russians’ losses in armor were enormous for about a week but what did Ukraine have left to oppose? Now I don’t have the total Russian losses but very simplified +1 BTG per day or something and it went on for about a week, that’s a couple of brigades (regiments) that went to zero. For the attack south of Lysychansk the Russians had pushed in 4 armored battalions, 14 mechanized battalions and 5 BTG special units (which I thought had to stand back but maybe they participated) + the cannon fodder Donbass rebels. Now we never know the condition of these BTGs and not all went against Lysychansk I have to be clear about that but a couple of regiment-sized composite units with a hell of a lot of armor, led by armor BTGs, pushed from the south towards Lysychansk and west of that. At the same time they kept the pressure up along the entire battle line Bakhmut – Slovyansk, and cleared around Izyum. A reversed Kherson roughly.
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I have actually been sitting and sulking over my own interpretation of available information that I have seen with slightly different glasses than the thread. I chose to depart from the positive spin as it would not be credible since the end was inevitable I felt but it needed to be reported as it is the first battle Ukraine really lost if you disregard the start. The southern front was a betrayal day one but then all lines held and they pushed back the Russians along the northern front – superhero class on all that. Severedonetsk would always be abandoned just like Lyman. Popasna was sad but not really tactical but something Ukraine could let go (now it led to something even sadder so actually not but I interpreted Popasna as that one could go into functioning defense further away when it happened).
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Lysychansk was an unnecessary technical knockout that they couldn’t hold and now Russia has Luhansk Oblast and also managed to outflank a BTG-killer like the Germans outflanked the Maginot Line, kind of.
That said, I have let everyone with functioning hearing hear that this terrain was meant exactly for that, to retreat in and grill BTGs on the way. The problem was just that it went too fast and too few BTGs were grilled.
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Now I believe less in this myself but there has been some concern that Putin will claim victory in the war and get Macron and Scholz on a no-compromise solution. Now we are a bit lucky because it seems the Russians want more and will pound Siversk and Slovyansk so there is time for a chess move in Kherson and the southern front and Ukraine’s mobilization is going full speed as everyone points out. Lysychansk is sad but the Russians do not win the war on a won battle and they will naturally lose big in the end anyway and limp home across the border with the last half-broken T62.
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There is a thought in the back of my mind and that is that Ukraine had operational reserves, part of 1st Tank brigade and two mech brigades, but I don’t know if they are tied up by the Russians’ buildup at the northern front (15,000 men) or Belarus troublemaking? If Poland had gone in and taken over the guard duty at the Belarus border it would have freed those brigades Ukraine really needed. Either they are out of operational reserves or it was a misjudgment and it played out too fast.
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However, I think the West and we should keep in mind that if they had had enough armor that would never have happened, Ukraine was low on most things in the area because they have a long front to defend and the Russians got more on a small front section and got the superiority needed. A couple of hundred Strf90s could have easily turned that battle for example if they had pushed forward from the Siversk – Bakhmut line and thundered into the attack’s western flank one dark night at the right time showering the Russians with arrow projectiles, I measured it at 15 km. Then they would have unloaded the infantry and fortified the whole line again with armor shots and Carl Gustaf and dug down the vehicles (yes not completely realistic described maybe but it’s a good vehicle).
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Think like this, the +250 T72s delivered were enough to equip maybe 2.5 brigades with armor and then they got a mosaic of armored terrain vehicles, milk cartons and cages on wheels. If the Russians could afford to lose +100 armored vehicles (I don’t have exact numbers, just that it was many) just on a small front section then it must have been a serious superiority there and they also had artillery superiority and air force there so far.
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The Russians attacking from the south were almost as tired so it was balanced and tipped over just in some damn technical knockout. Unnecessary but inevitable and now Ukraine is taking new efforts because the Russians will continue towards Mykolaivka, Siversk and Slovyansk as said so the southern front and Kherson remain the weak point for a while longer now with HIMARS in a forest area near the Russians. That is at least my interpretation of the whole thing and I understand that we will hear that it was a planned tactical retreat because that is what we are supposed to say but I thought it could be valuable in the thread to try to describe the sequence as I have read it.
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Probably said it yesterday that with HIMARS at Kherson the three bridges over the Dnieper are probably already closed. Air and army aviation will also go all in when it happens so there you have Kuwait highway on the rise I put a five hundred on that 🙂 Now we got from Micke a little update on how it goes at Kherson and it looks very promising, Ukraine is pushing towards a victory at Kherson and the southern front follows, either that they steal back Melitopol or the dark horse Mariupol which in itself seems like a bit of a tall order and I would probably see it more as a lucky break if it would happen.
19:41
Regarding Kherson, my point was probably that they have now received systems that cover the bridges with accurate ammunition, a bit further than what the other guns can manage. Now maybe they will soon be able to hit with their 155mm as well where they have now reached, which is a bit exciting, and then the air force has some oversight in case there would be a rush towards the bridges on some sunny day. But yes, fundamentally I agree that one weapons system does not change the war, Ukraine needs an increase in capability in everything, air force (F-16), MBTs, IFVs that are better than rolling Renault coffins, air defense, means against the missiles raining down, night fighting, medical care, etc. EVERYTHING.
19:41
Was at Yrsel.
19:45
I was also thinking for a while about field hospitals and such, and there we don’t really know how much moves across the border?
The EU could procure a huge support package of exactly all that you write.
What seems to work, however, is that wounded soldiers receive care in the EU and that equipment is repaired throughout Eastern Europe, which has experience with Eastern weapons.
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Then it’s midsummer but there will be another winter where half the country is wiped out, I don’t know how they plan to solve that but you can have pretty decent camps with, like, construction barracks that have hot water, sewage, heating, and food for those fleeing. There might still be room for now with kind souls but it is quite a large internal displacement.
19:55
Yes exactly, for example Sweden equips a couple of brigades in a geographic area with CV90 and artillery, maybe the 122mm if the Germans get their act together, and then the entire maintenance chain. USA, UK, France, Germany do the same and you have uniform equipment within an area, a “godparent system” where you train your respective brigades in the country. Actually, western Ukraine should be declared a protected area or secured with air defense so the West can go in big and build up the logistics needed. Like US bases during their wars. Then you run everything straight in instead of these smuggled deliveries and training all over Europe as now. Yes, I always forget the Gripen but it also needs its marketing.
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Kherson – Melitopol – Crimea is coming because the Russians want to take more of Donetsk Oblast as well, they will pound towards Slovyansk, Mykolaivka, and Siversk with everything they have north of that. Those who attacked Lysychansk from the south are in bad shape and cannot push again in the near future. As soon as the Russians have had their panic retreat over the Dnipro where everything is burning and bleeding, a bunch of Ukrainian maneuver brigades will be freed up that can either band up over Zaporozhye and then to the southern front or cross the Dnipro. I thought I’d take another shot at it now that I’ve sulked enough over Lysychansk 🙂
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I hope Lysychansk shook the West a bit because the Russians will try to push Ukraine out of Siversk with the same method, so good if there are deliveries soon.
20:49
Yes, probably Barvinkove because Putin wants Donetsk Oblast. They seem to be going straight for Slovyansk now but that city is presumably a fort in 360 degrees and groomed for defense so they’ll try for a while and give up.
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There is one more thing we don’t really understand the extent of yet, and that is that Ukraine has weakened the western flank, I think at least the 92nd and 72nd Mechanized have sent battalion groups into the pocket earlier and it’s lively up by Kharkiv so not much to send south from there one can guess. There should be operational reserves and according to Girkin “Ukraine has fortified the line Siversk – Bakhmut with new fresh units.”
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After Slovyansk comes Kramatorsk and just the name is intimidating so somewhere around there it will stop in the absolute worst case and that is a defensive line all the way down to the ceasefire line at Horlivka. What they have to watch out for is exactly as you say a wider scope via Barvinkove.
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The famous forest in Izyum that makes entire armies disappear has probably been quite effective in preventing Russian advances southward but the river runs at the edge of the forest and the reasonable thing would be, as you say, that the Russians make an attempt to take all terrain east of the Siversky Donets river on the western flank to secure it. That they haven’t managed it so far is actually quite remarkable, it’s a mosquito swarm of BTGs in that area and they keep getting beaten precisely in that forest since early May at the famous start of tour-de-777, or that was the second stop after Kharkiv.
20:57
Yes exactly, they have clearly chosen to go on the offensive in Kherson and allocated them artillery, new T73s, M113s, and half of the HIMARS. Regarding Lysychansk, I have thought a lot about it and I think Ukraine would have held the horseshoe if they could have because it was a pretty nice defense and big enough. The next defensive line is anchored north in Siversk which can be attacked from three directions and west of Siversk lies Mykolaivka which is under “storming.” If they had the defense further east in the terrain with river crossings and on a height it wouldn’t have been so bad. That they abandoned that defense was probably because they didn’t have the capacity to defend everywhere and earlier they did. What has changed in the equation is presumably that the Russians have been able to build up an advantage probably both in soldiers and equipment that was enough.
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I also think the offensives eastward are independent and that Ukraine is quite happy if the Russians send BTGs north because they CAN sacrifice that terrain really all the way back to Dnipro – Pavlograd – southeast if it gets tight but then they have to get something else for giving that up, Melitopol and Crimea for example.
22:06
19:48 then you can probably give Lukashenko the nickname mayfly because that’s probably about how long his 7 battalions will survive in Ukraine when Poland’s pack is torn apart and they thunder into their western flank. There will be Belarusians pressed into the ground in long rows with Polish footprints on their backs, it will go that fast.
22:13
Yes we all do, a thread like this that pools so much knowledge doesn’t come often and thanks yourself, you always make me run and check the map after your posts 🙂
23:08
Yes absolutely, the battle plan is probably not to take Kherson but to lock the bridges and let the defenders give up over time. The most important thing is that they cannot retreat east of the Dnipro.
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Same with Melitopol, you lock Crimea and if you just defend eastward (and westward because there is some there) and keep an eye on the bridgehead so you knock out everything that comes, then Crimea is only a matter of time before it gives up.
You don’t really need to fight your way down.
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Here Ukraine can sit on its hands and start working forward up by Kharkiv instead or in Donbass proper if it is weak, as long as they can defend the Melitopol line it’s calm and it’s a nice natural defense between Tokmak – Melitopol and down to that green lagoon.
23:12
Took a look at FIRMS and besides it being quite clear that Ukraine is attacking from the NE now down from Kryvyi Rih and down inside the Inhulets river, it is bright red down towards Tokmak… It looks like the entire Russian defense line north of Vasylivka is burning, every single T62 is a little bonfire.
Full throttle both at Kherson and the southern front now just as it should be.
23:43
It’s late now but Goeran62 wrote something thought-provoking yesterday about how spending on war materiel is never good for the country, gives no return, and I was going to reply but it was too late so now it will be too late today instead –
the charm of NATO is precisely that they can mobilize enough materiel and quality units to push back any of the rogue states WITHOUT overspending on their defense. The countries can continue to live in prosperity while having a strong defense. If you want peace, prepare for war, but in NATO you also get to live like a god.
Now they will also arm our eastern flank against Russia which all those countries deserve because they have overspent quite a bit on their defense.
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At the same time Russia is busted, same as with the Soviet Union they will arm themselves straight down into the hole. China, who knows, but if I were the USA I would out-arm them like they did with the Soviet Union, it might work.
14:06
Micke had completely missed that thread and yet that account is well known, what golden information :). He usually mostly posts geolocations and fun videos otherwise. It was a bit clearer than WarMonitors’ maps and Snigurivka seems to be underway and Kyselivka as well which is also fun. Then there is the open field down to Chornobaivka from there the valley at Kyselivka so nothing you roll over directly. Then it has to be forward from V instead and then NE at Krivoj Rog and south from Davyidiv Brid or the forest directly W of that. Things are moving despite the Russians really pushing in reserves at Kherson as much as they could.