13:10
It has been really positive among the Twitter generals for a couple of days now, but since I have already recycled FIRMS and I think some losses in Kherson several times over, it didn’t feel like an everyday post to spam the thread with (well, it kind of became that anyway..)
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There is a crucial difference between Ukrainian and Russian artillery; the Russians shoot broadly over an area, hitting something but not necessarily a target. Ukraine has good accuracy up to direct hits with every shot and at least in Kherson 100% target data, I would say. Nothing of value happening on the ground is unknown to Ukraine in that front section.
Now there is the constant discussion about it being grass/forest fires and I thought something knocked out was igniting. An artillery shell didn’t ignite forest and fields BEFORE but now it’s starting to get dry. Looking at the weather, it still rains a bit but sure, there are some fires in the grain fields from artillery without knocked-out targets, no doubt about that.
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Since Ukraine has good accuracy, I think a fire in a field on the red side is a knocked-out vehicle, zero backup for that. The Russians shoot broadly and cause fires here and there, not necessarily hits but sometimes hits. Looking at Sentinel data that Nathan gave us, it’s incredibly active right where FIRMS lights up below Davyidiv Brid. Tracks everywhere and black fields. We also had the interesting – fires in a geometric pattern, 9 of them the other day and we have HIMARS with area coverage fire, the famous 180,000 tungsten balls, or Wolfram, I forgot what to call them so let’s say; rain-of-death.
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It works perfectly to jump between days on FIRMS and I’m running 4 days now, previously a week, a bit periodic. You can very clearly see how it hasn’t burned in the forest area west of Davyidiv Brid which Ukraine has always held but in a ring around it. This ring has moved outward and now the fires are starting to move down towards Khakovka. They are 20 km from Khakovka.
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We have to choose between Russian artillery against Ukrainian advance or Ukrainian artillery moving south as they run out of high-value targets closer to Davyidiv Brid, I believe the latter. Exactly where Ukrainian units stand I don’t know but the fires clearly indicate where shelling is actually happening.
Something we have guessed is that if the Russians have to choose, they choose Kherson. The area “inside” Inhulets between Darivka – Snigurivka – Davyidiv Brid – NS road straight south to Kherson they will abandon.
Ukraine goes on defense in communities along NS road Davyidiv Brid and defends eastward. Then they continue the offensive over in the northeast south of Kryvyi Rih. I think I see that in how the fires change character on FIRMS.
How it goes for the Russian BTG northeast of this line will of course be interesting to see, according to unit maps 3 BTG and an artillery brigade. The road to Khakovka is still open and they can always drive like car thieves to freedom but then they are exposed to air and army aviation.
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Just yesterday we got information that the Russians are rushing 4 BTG from the Southern front to Kherson. That can only mean they are struggling to hold back, why else move 4 BTG? In the city of Kherson it is now completely red and if you ask me, Ukraine has coordinates to every bunker, depot, buried tank, and everything else that doesn’t move. They are pounding because the front lines are now at a distance where tracked howitzers and 777 reach them.
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When I reach peak sarcasm and peak positivity I write that 777 with guided ammunition can knock out a BTG in a morning if you skip breaks. What I want to highlight, however, is that everything in defense except very well-built concrete bunkers has poor overhead protection/protection against top-attack ammunition. Ukraine now has artillery with guided ammunition and what is not guided, air bursts. A full BTG in defense is after all no more than 30-40 targets in armor and then a number of fixed points and trenches. Ukrainian artillery can do enormous damage here and if they have started clearing depots and command posts and don’t need to have artillery duels, they can start working on buried defenses. Near Davyidiv Brid it seems there was first a Russian counterattack that was to be stopped.
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Air, army aviation, and drones can then work against the Russian reinforcements that are banding up east of the Dnipro. They cross three known points over the Dnipro which are under surveillance and stop at some UFA and prepare. During all this time they are easy targets for these weapon systems and when they are in UFA, HIMARS can open up. Then add technical failures to that since they have to band longer distances now with ancient armor.
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Kherson is lost for the Russians and if they were smart they would have retreated east of the Dnipro and prepared a hell of a defense at all crossings, both bridges and suitable points but the Bunker dwarf makes Hitler’s map-warring in the bunker look like a great victory here. The reason is of course that they still believe they have a chance at Odessa. When the day comes that the responsible commander realizes it’s over and gives the order to retreat eastward, as said, there are three points they must cross and surely some pontoon bridge because they are not completely stupid and that is the day when air, army aviation, and drones go all in against everything that moves. They have pushed quite a lot west of the Dnipro now that will not be able to participate in the defense of the southern front, the eastern bank of the Dnipro, or the defense of Crimea which is very positive. Not part of the battle plan to lure in as much as possible if you ask me but that became the result.
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Then Ukraine is also pressing now towards Tokmak and Volnovakha and there might be something fun between Donetsk – Horlivka just because they can.
17:01
I make no claim to be first or even top 100 on this ball and it is discussed in the thread and today’s blog post but now there are almost insanely many knocked-out ammunition depots, now you go into the Twitter gods and there are three more mushroom clouds…
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3523681-ukrainian-army-eliminated-16-enemy-bases-ammunition-warehouses-in-past-week.html
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First they took out what the 777 reached at the start, that was when they got to 7-8 and then it blew up by some dozen more.
These were front-near depots and smaller. With HIMARS suddenly the range reached central depots and the Russians have no defense against their ammunition. They have large central depots supplying entire front sections and they lose so many, it’s an incredible number. As Magnus Redin mentioned above, how is it even possible that they built it like this?
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You don’t move these depots in a week, it takes time and above all it takes resources, resources you would need to deliver ammunition to the front instead. The depots will continue to blow up for a while longer. I don’t know if you remember a post about stacks and how it fluctuates over time and when you get everything right it becomes an Armenia, it goes fast. My point there was that Ukraine needs armor to go on the offensive but this with the depots never ends.
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I extend that reasoning to what is happening now, Ukraine has gotten weapons systems that can strike virtually all Russian stored ammunition and fuel as well as bases up to the distance the Russians have, lazy as they are, built these bases and depots, everything for the whole war is within reach here. Nothing is buried, everything is in buildings and the US has been quite diligent the last 4 months (probably the last 8 years) in logging these targets. The 40 guys in Lviv are working themselves to death. It’s not hard to find, just follow the ant trail to and from as long as you have the resources to go through all the material.
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There is zero reason for Ukraine to stop striking these targets and now they don’t have 4 HIMARS, they have 9 of these and equivalent weapons systems and more are on the way 🙂
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Then you have the other thing that has started to happen, at least in Kherson and the Southern front, Ukraine’s artillery no longer needs to fight artillery duels but can start hitting targets in defense. The command posts got theirs early, then it was front-near ammunition depots and artillery and now it seems they are pounding buried everything. It can only be interpreted as Russian artillery partly no longer has the intelligence situation they had before, are a bit spotted and maybe also the wildcard, poor ammunition supply..
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Is there any reason at all to think we will see any turnaround away from what is playing out right now, that the Russians have all their ammunition blown up and Ukraine can calmly lob 155mm right into the head of everything the Russians bury in defense – No.
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It will rather escalate because now they move on, as many have written, with the railway and junctions and even further away – depots with ToshkaU, infiltrators, SOF and some crazy air operation and these black ops we don’t yet know about but will be a Netflix movie in a few years. The weaker the Russian artillery becomes, the stronger the Ukrainian becomes and you can work your way down the list to a platoon in a trench and then it’s over. Ukraine can walk in over defensive positions the Russians have spent months on just because they didn’t care about anything but frontal protection.
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Kherson and the southern front will be cleared first and are closest in time but when that is done and they go on defense eastward at Melitopol they can move the whole music ensemble to the next front, Izyum, Luhansk or Donetsk Oblast and do more of the same, Crimea is just a waiting game. Russian air will be countered, trying to knock out platforms and barrels but Ukraine has also prepared for that with potent air defense and reinforcements to the air force, it will not succeed because Russian army aviation is almost extinct and the air force will go on strike because they are also running out.
Long-range weapons are all well and good but they don’t have the accuracy nor the maintenance situation to catch these small mobile batteries. As long as all artillery moves after each mission most will survive and from what we have seen so far Ukraine works very competently with artillery.
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I have been nagging that I don’t believe in wunderwaffe but right now Ukraine has found the right mix and had its Armenia moment (Solros2022 is the thread’s HIMARS man), it’s not just HIMARS but several weapons systems and above all they have competent soldiers at the base. Now the stacks fluctuate constantly but if you fill up with front artillery and more with long range while giving Ukraine the armor they need for the offensive this is a smashing win before Christmas, pretty sure of it. It will go fast and the Russians don’t have the weapon to match, they are too slow an organization and they have prepared poorly. The air force and long-range weapons are their last cards and they are not enough. Nuclear weapons will probably be the first comment below but we’ll take that day when it happens if the Bunker dwarf is that far gone.
17:03
One system supports another and it is a combination of systems, HIMARS lets the 777 and Bandhaubits focus on the defense lines and then you need the maneuver brigades to strike with air and LV as protection. The last to arrive was HIMARS and it was the complement needed for the whole, but now armor is needed for the phase – run over the Russians and reclaim the country.
18:01
When you have finished writing this, the question arises – is this pre-battle preparation ahead of Ukraine’s offensive that we are seeing?
Southern front and Kherson?
With all the fog of war, it is quite difficult to form an opinion about what they are attacking with, but we roughly know the number of brigades they have and they have definitely not put all their eggs in one basket as Putin usually does.
Who knows, next week we will probably know if something bigger is underway.
18:02
Of course, I forgot the staff positions that came first when the 777 arrived.
18:08
Long-range weapons are all well and good but partly they don’t have the accuracy nor the maintenance condition to catch these small mobile batteries.
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Here it should say – Intelligence situation = intelligence capacity.
18:30
Ukrainian artillery has now reached Urozhaine, which is 20km from Khakovka.
Previously, all the fires were in a semicircle in front of Ukraine’s defense and then they moved outward.
Now the fires are in all the settlements on the way down to Khakovka.
My guess is that they are pounding all the Russians who had the audacity to defend between Ukraine’s advanced reconnaissance and Khakovka.
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It also looks like they are working their way towards Snigurivka but not east of the NS road directly towards Khakovka and there we have guessed that they are defending eastward. In fact, the fires replicate quite precisely what we guessed they would do at Davyivdiv Brid, only it took a while.
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If it were Russian artillery hitting Ukraine’s front, that would be even better, but I don’t feel that one can interpret the week like that yet; otherwise, some place names would have come from the Twitter generals that were out of the ordinary. However, I would like an update from Svenskby because now it is close to them. It is the constant variant of “There is a lot of fighting north of the village” and you never know how far away. However, I think Ukrainian reconnaissance will get there before the main force has parked itself in Khakovka, and that is probably the message one wants to read, first-hand source and breaking news 🙂
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One can probably guess that those 4 BTG have been rushed to Kherson in a panic. It may also be that they are allowed to defend on the eastern side of the Dnieper at the crossing points, which of course would be sensational and fun if we got information about it, but until we get that, they have been brought in to plug the holes Ukraine is tearing open.
18:33
Was Ukraine waiting for the Severodonetsk/Lysychansk offensive to be finished, that is, that they regrouped to Siversk – Bakhmut?
Then the Russians are at their most ragged and they have used all reserves and the rest are up north of Slovyansk/Kramatorsk and are supposed to encircle Slovyansk?
Don’t know how long it takes to bring something down from Izyum or even further up, load, train, unload when – Mariupol and then band an enormous distance to Kherson?
Everything sent from the southern front weakens the southern front.
18:55
I think I understand and thanks for the positive 🙂
The difficult thing, I think, is how one evaluates the sources and they change all the time so you have to find new ones, the big chaos day with all the place names at Davyidiv Brid was one of those big mistakes one tries to avoid again.
19:02
Yes exactly, not really much 🙂
They have gone into some kind of defense along the Crimean canal but if you cross at Khakovka or north of it, you avoid it. It can probably be assumed that there is some kind of defense east of the Dnieper but we haven’t read about it and with a bit of luck they are bringing everything up to the front to plug the holes. To then be able to defend east of the Dnieper, they either have to cross the damn bridge again or band up from Melitopol – long, technical faults, air, exposed and all that.
As long as the pressure is kept up at the Southern front, they can’t pull away many BTG either.
Bringing down from other fronts takes time and right now the railway tracks behind the southern front are being destroyed rapidly.
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There are some wildcards – Ukrainian river crossing north of Khakovka with boats, that they cross the Dnieper just by momentum or that the partisans are a veritable army and take Melitopol themselves, now I got carried away a bit but it would be fun.
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Yes absolutely, exactly right thinking, the Russians have no intention whatsoever of giving up Melitopol, it is a chess move and would be a real knockout punch for Ukraine. They will defend it to the last burnt-out T62 and drooping Donbass rebel 🙂
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According to UAwardata, there are a few brigades to spare there but I think you have to count out 4 that were sent to Kherson.
19:47
He is a future legend, telescope pointer and completely deadpan in broken English (there is a German version too) so he explains to those who the military academy knows make the decisions but who understand nothing about the situation. Big blue arrows with accompanying text where the sentence is never longer than six words and synonyms have been found for all difficult technical words. If that doesn’t work, he calmly and methodically explains what you are seeing in the picture.
21:26
Yes absolutely, I was a bit unclear, I have recently learned that a rocket (?) has 180,000 glowing tungsten/tungsten carbide balls that spread over a ?x?m area. It is an incredibly potent weapon which according to Kos, who apparently worked on a rig, can take out up to IFV. Looking at Wikipedia, there are about 30 types of ammunition available so some bunker buster, some high-explosive and all other fun stuff + the long-range one that senators are starting to lobby for now so you can reach rear maintenance 🙂
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They probably used the 777 for that in the beginning and now that HIMARS has arrived, it’s time to pound the defense lines with a couple of shells in a tank before moving.
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Addition that Solros2022 was probably first to praise HIMARS and they have really delivered.
02:05
Wait a minute, you just posted the game changer for the whole war?
Now it doesn’t matter where the Russians have their depots, everything within 300km is grilled by the 21 platforms Ukraine has that can handle this ammunition?
Can’t find the article so you get a formal dubbing to Erik the Fourteenth for this one 🙂
Now it’s a long slippery downhill slope for the Russians that can only end one way, epic humiliation of the vassal province Ukraine
11:57
It is a completely traumatized country, doctors and ER staff see, if possible, even more death than the soldiers on the front line, and such an extreme escalation traumatizes them just as much as the soldiers, if not more. Four months and the teams are probably doing twelve-hour shifts where horrific injuries come in every day and civilians die.
We like to talk in terms of arms deliveries and then a bit about rebuilding, but the most important thing is probably that all Ukrainians get hope when the war is over and that they feel welcome so they can start the journey towards normalization.