12:43
I find this one interesting; there have been some hints from the Twitter gods that Russia is emptying its border bases, that is, the defense they have kept to protect their territory. First of all, that gives you high blood pressure; Putin is not the least bit afraid that any other country or organization in the rest of the world will attack Russia. He has a less defended border than Liechtenstein, and that doesn’t worry him at all. It would actually be quite funny if China takes the opportunity to snatch that piece of land in Siberia they have always wanted. What is Putin going to do, ask the rest of the world for help?
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Then you understand where this second wind and the never-ending swarm of locusts came from, what they had in reserve. However, it now seems, as already written today, that they will ride into battle on glorified tractors. A rumor, but if true, then it’s the end of IFVs as well.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3525205-russia-moving-reserves-forces-for-offensive-uk-intelligence.html
13:07
The two senators had probably started pitching for them now, Blumenthal and Lindsay Graham, but yes, as you say, it could be a little blood pressure increase for Putin that’s meant. Otherwise, they probably do that at the same time as the missiles are flown to depots in eastern Poland awaiting diplomatic unlocking, one can guess.
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Those range maps have all of Ukraine inside the circles anyway, but then the fire units have to be quite close behind active front lines in some cases, I think. With this ammunition, they can stand under the UAV screen in some bushes far behind the front lines, and the Russians have no way to either spot them or take them out. Now they might risk some fire units anyway if the targets are valuable enough. What they can’t reach today is probably the Kerch Bridge and what is stored down in Crimea, but there is ToshkaU for that and daredevil pilots.
13:24
Yes, Kazakhstan has come out quite strongly here, which is nice; Georgia and Azerbaijan have been quiet, but all three are needed to encircle Russia in NATO if possible.
This is really a geopolitical atomic bomb that hopefully will settle Russia’s great power ambitions once and for all, either through isolation and sanctions or a real change. When the West gave up its colonies, Russia and China basically just continued and got a free pass because they had communist revolutions or something.
16:09
Damn, you just can’t reach the area where you might imagine the Russians have loaded up with the mother of all depots.
The mother depot that would make the mushroom clouds we’ve seen so far look like smoke puffs.
Those 300km ATACMS would be needed, but maybe it can be solved with everything else.
Or maybe it’s a double bluff, the Russians think Blumenthal is fooling them, and then it blows up in the mother depot 🙂
18:04
This kind of thing is really interesting; Russia is actually an unpopular colonial power that escaped the whole decolonization because they had a good communist revolution. It’s about time now.
Unfortunately, it probably won’t be the least bit calm after decolonization when everyone is going to jump on Kadyrov, but these are not ethnic Russians who have their own languages, cultures, and traditions but have been Russian vassal provinces just because Moscow could.
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Imagine when Siberia declares independence, then it will be lively 🙂
18:52
Yes, isn’t it?
First, the urn nestling out of Lysychansk went well, and it turned out that the Russians want to jump to the next line – perfect. I was positive about it the whole time…
Then we’ve had an exponential curve of depots knocked out and astronomical pre-bombardment of the Russians in Kherson and the southern front + some fun.
If there isn’t a big step back, you can almost say that week 27 was the turning point in the war.
Now all that’s missing is for Shoigu to lead from the front and get spread over a potato field, then it will be complete.
19:00
Partly, apparently half of Ukraine jumped on the news about the 300km range for HIMARS and then hope is the last thing to leave Johan, the Pentagon has only written ammunition, not which ammunition.
https://gagadget.com/en/war/144994-the-united-states-have-not-announced-the-transfer-to-ukraine-of-himars-ammunition-with-a-range-of-300-km/
19:28
Sorry for not replying, that was very rude.
Yes, I read through the links and HIMARS and M142 refer to the platform/weapon carrier and they have not specified the ammunition further. It is a bit open-ended since they have not specified the ammunition, so if you want, it can be spun that there is nothing in the text that contradicts the nice range but unfortunately, there is no confirmation either.
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Since practically all of Ukraine jumped on it, it must have been on the agenda at least. Why else get completely excited about something. It could be that they want the first strike to come as a surprise for the bunker gnome.
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Or just like Argus and the other 200 under my post pointed out, probably not cool ammunition.
but thanks for the links I already saw them this morning during the follow-up in yesterday’s thread.
19:36
When the first cool drone videos came from some mech brigade, we probably wrote that now 33 other brigades would run around looking for the guys with editing programs, good taste in music and able to pilot drones with offers to avoid front-line service for hits on YouTube.
Now three months later, it has almost gotten out of hand how much is edited together and lots of special effects 🙂
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3525651-russian-tank-truck-with-ammunition-destroyed-in-kharkiv-region.html
12:38
Now one is a bit curious whether Erik14’s post yesterday about HIMARS getting ammunition with a 300km range can be verified. Erik rarely posts things taken out of thin air, so it caused an almost allergic positive reaction.
If they get that range, they can reach every target in all of Ukraine.
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Right now, there is probably some kind of restriction that the ammunition cannot be used against targets across the border, so for now they will probably have to use ToshkaU, daring air companies, black ops we don’t know about, and long-range patrols/SOF. It has gone quite well so far, I think. Eventually, that restriction will probably be lifted, but if things go too well for Ukraine, maybe they won’t need to lift that restriction and open up for some kind of “cheating” discussion from the dwarf clown. He really is one of the worst commanders of all time, and the clash between his self-image and reality is almost total.
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It’s probably time to look at how the Russians have set up their supply chain in Russia; the rail network is where it is and is well known, as are all the hubs. I have poor knowledge of other supply points except that when it started, Belgorod was the main point for the entire northern offensive, but now after all the hits and exposed supply routes, they have probably moved the supply eastward.
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Rostov-na-Don seems to be a natural supply hub on Russian soil, I think, and I find it strange that it has never been hit; there was some fuel train that spontaneously ignited, but we probably haven’t heard more than that?
Between Voronezh and Rostov-na-Don, there are probably one or two more twelve-target launchers, or they have simply placed the main depot in the easternmost Donetsk Oblast where the railway goes in? After all, the Russians have controlled these areas since 2014 and have been confident about taking over the whole country, so why have the depots too far away?
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Right now, the Russian command is watching how their entire supply chain is collapsing in real time. Every day, 3-5 depots or bases are taken out. Their last hope has been that HIMARS does not reach the large main depot in the easternmost Donbass. Then they go through the comment section on a Swedish blog, and after some Google Translate, they understand that an Erik14 just crashed the whole party. They can only look at each other, shrug their shoulders, and – well, that was fun while it lasted…
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When the Russian artillery tubes go silent, then Ukraine’s counterparts can calmly lob their exciting ammunition straight into the heads of everything in defense, and when it is so sparse between defenders that they have to keep telegram contact between the trenches, the maneuver brigades can roll up the defense lines one by one until the borders are restored.
If the railways start to be disrupted by diligent long-range patrols/SOF, there won’t be much reinforcement appearing either when the big rolling-up day starts.