10:21
My opinion on the question of the entire West’s SOF behind the Russians’ lines I have spammed the thread with since about a week into the war 🙂
You have been quite quiet about HIMARS the last week, I am a bit curious because you were first in the thread with HIMARS before the rest of us learned the name. I remember you posted something early and then Biden came out and denied it and I thought, well it would have been fun if Solros was right. Now a few months later they were one of the vital puzzle pieces…
Or have I misunderstood Solros here?
10:27
Macron has probably given up and posted the chat logs on his insta like a celebrity kiss-and-tell 🙂
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I actually have zero evidence for this but I think there is more behind Germany’s actions than we know. First it was that they were afraid of Putin, a poor excuse, and now it’s the gas weapon but they refuse to open the coal power and still plan to shut down the last 6 nuclear power plants by Christmas – feels quite wrong.
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My thought is that when East and West united it was an open union and Eastern Europeans have climbed up in administration and important positions and that the Russians took the chance to infiltrate heavily and that is behind it. Saw that about Schröder that he still wants Ukraine to give up even though he has been forced to resign from everything.
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About Schröder I think like this, has he lost all his buddies now and sits alone at home in his apartment sulking or does he get back pats and many toasts at the gentlemen’s dinner. Probably the latter. With some luck maybe we can start a process in Germany that smokes out the subversive elements over time here, ordinary Germans are probably getting quite pissed.
11:15
Yes, for quite a while the critical mass has been in Ukraine’s favor and the Russians run around trying to fend off a wild whack-a-mole that keeps popping up where they have weakened.
At the beginning of May we saw it with the offensive against Izyum and Kharkov while we guessed they were building up offensive capacity since a bunch of maneuver brigades were not at the front.
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That has more or less all along been what I have taken as evidence that things are going well for Ukraine, they have been able to build up an operational reserve. I got a bit gloomy after Lysychansk but that diagnosis quickly faded.
11:20
Unfortunately, the Russians will continue to be Russians and prevent everyone from leaving, especially the city of Kherson, using human shields. Ukraine cannot take that into account, unfortunately, and is forced to press on, and it’s all Putin’s fault, no one else’s, even if Western media will blow it up as Ukraine killing children.
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Yes, if one were to guess, the Russians are probably starting to move away from the ammunition depots now, there is probably not much transshipment happening near the front, the soldiers simply refuse to go there.
11:21
Those 1000 guided shells for 777 came just in time..
11:47
Up by Kharkiv and Izyum, they started before the order was given and the same with the larger tactical retreats.
It could of course be different this time, but looking at how they have acted so far, it should be full pre-battle we have seen now. Then the Russians will try to counterattack as well, so it naturally ebbs back and forth as always. However, I think that on the maps we have seen for a while now, Ukraine is fighting to capture strategic footholds for (further) attacks, Snigurivka, Vasylivka, west of Kherson, Davyidiv Brid and over in the northeast.
12:07
For the Archer, DefMon from Strängnäs was quick to deny it, so it didn’t gain any traction.
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However, I want to defend the statement that Zelensky gave the order to retake southern Ukraine, Liveuamap usually reports official messages and it was the “Deputy PM” who made the statement (according to Liveuamap)
It came after we already knew that she had given the order to evacuate Kherson etc. ahead of the impending attack.
And after FIRMS lit up completely red for a week and HIMARS smashed depots.
If you want to be picky, there are plenty of official statements that Kherson shall be retaken and that offensive operations shall be initiated, that was already in May.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3526216-deputy-pm-vereshchuk-again-calls-on-ukrainians-to-evacuate-from-kherson-zaporizhzhia-regions.html
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There is absolutely no doubt THAT an offensive against Kherson and the southern front is emerging/ongoing?
Offensive operations have been going on there for quite some time now and the Russians are on the defensive.
The question is rather when the main attack (if that’s not what we are seeing, fog of war…) will come and that message is not entirely surprising to latch onto?
It was the same with the HIMARS 300km ranges that half of Ukraine latched onto, mistakes happen and I don’t think anyone posts them with subversive intent.
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That said, of course it’s good if it’s right and good that you clarified the terms SorryAunt 🙂
12:09
For us following Kherson, we have an interesting place name in today’s Russian artillery shelling 🙂
Liveuamap
“At Pivdenny Buh direction Russian army shelled Dobrianka, Olhyne, Osokorivka, Velyka Kostromka, Bila Krynytsa, Kalynivka, *Kyselivka*, Lyubomyrivka, Kobzartsi, Chervona Dolyna, Shyroke, Kyselivka, Partyzanske, Kotliareve, Posad-Pokrovske and Prybuzke, – General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report”
12:10
It should be Kyselivka, not Vasylivka, and they have just taken that one.
13:46
Maybe you have figured out what kind of armor Ukraine has received/will receive for its offensive that Gregg is hinting at?
Together with the upgraded previously delivered T72s, this is 500 tanks supplied in total of good quality.
That’s enough for all the armored brigades and some mech brigades, right?
There has been more talk about tanks from Slovakia and another country, and then France was supposed to deliver armored personnel carriers in large numbers.
-That should go a long way even though I would very much have liked to see Ukraine band out in war on the latest, not the surplus.
14:33
Was about to write something about the numbers but Reisner is someone you have some time for, so I’ll probably go and look at that to better understand what he means.
14:38
I think it should be exactly as LW writes that Reisner looked at the maneuver brigades, maybe even the armored and mech brigades?
That it would be one big cover-up from Ukraine’s side and they have empty shells like the Russians, I find that very hard to believe. That’s not their style.
19:28
I know there’s a lot of statistics and strategy, this video has been up before but it’s probably as close as you can get to what it’s like to stand in the way of a Russian armored attack. It’s demonstrably grenade range.
https://tinyurl.com/dfb44hu5
19:32
So damn tired of Twitter users having learned to throw up a pulse raiser before they write what happened. Sometimes they go to bed in between and you’ve been bouncing up and down for nothing for half a day when they finally write it was a traffic accident. Now it’s WarMonitor.
19:37
I’m starting to get the feeling that the Russians have started using second and third tier troops here?
First we had the chaos in the beginning and then they learned and VDV, Spetsnaz, Wagner, the marine infantry fought somewhat sensibly. Now I think you start reading about completely senseless attacks again with heavy losses.
20:51
Now we got an official update on mil.in.ua and it’s a pretty good calibration and in line with what we have assumed in the thread for the last +1 week I think, HIMARS deep strikes and tube artillery against a sluggish Russian in a hole.
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“The situation in the southern region remains steadily tense. Our troops advance slowly but surely. Announcements of our successes will be made only after they are finalized. The main achievement at the moment is the destruction of command posts and logistics centers, ammunition and fuel depots… The troops also hit several military equipment targets located along the contact line,” Humeniuk said”.
21:07
This was absolutely wild speculation a week ago in the thread that Ukraine would boat something over to the east side of the Dnipro north of Khakovka. Very much unconfirmed from the comments in Kos, that is, unconfirmed.
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IF they have made a landing with infantry just to shake up the Russians, it means they have 2,3,4 moves underway, otherwise there is no reason to risk infantry being overrun. The purpose is probably to draw some BTGs to clear there.
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Ivanivka –
“It is on the East side of Dniepr. Way way inside Russian-controlled territory, near Crimea. If true, this could be a suicide mission to disrupt Russian supply lines from Crimea or a suicidal bait mission to invite Russians to attack in large numbers which could then be decimated via MLRS. Either way, if they really did this, then it sure looks like a very heroic suicide”.
22:33
It was obviously the wrong Ivanivka so you posted a big disclaimer.
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I was thinking like this Erik14 that they land infantry, a company or two, who go on defense at various reasonable points, there are some interesting communities there.
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Then the Russians have to spare a couple of BTGs to try to hit them, weaken the southern front.
On the east side of the Dnipro there is artillery for protection and then air and army aviation.
Could work.
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But now it wasn’t like that..
22:37
There is an effect we have not yet discussed in the thread.
-The Stuka effect from HIMARS and guided 155mm ammunition, this is new materiel and every Russian soldier knows what’s going on so the unpleasantness is probably amplified quite a bit when you don’t know who’s next.
An artillery regiment and then, “who got hit” is one thing. A single shell right in the head of a T62 and then silence, 15 minutes later another T62 in flames, and so on. It’s a bit of a sniper effect.
If the Russians feel they are not the least bit safe in defense west of the Dnipro it could get crowded over the bridge.
Rinse and repeat at the southern front.
10:16
I have more and more time for the daily Gregg, I think I have written that a few times now, a very interesting guy.
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Yesterday in the aftertalk it was posted in the thread that Zelensky has now given the order that “the south” shall be taken back. The interpretation can only be Kherson and the Southern front.
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For over a week, especially Kherson has been completely bright red on FIRMS on the Russian side and somewhat less bright red on the Ukrainian side. It seems as if the artillery tubes have now been redirected against Russians in the pit, the defense. It feels like a somewhat apocalyptic pre-battle has begun?
This has been possible because HIMARS has taken over grilling the rear.
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We have previously received information about 3-4 larger Russian troop movements to Kherson and just yesterday some BTG rolled from the eastern front through Mariupol westward. Gregg also writes about these troop movements, he is almost the only one discussing them – at least the Russians are worried about what is happening over in Kherson 🙂
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We have previously seen offensive operations from Ukraine in Kherson but have all along felt that they have not really committed wholeheartedly, one has hoped so and run to buy ready-made popcorn in bags and then been a bit disappointed but kept hope up with even more chips. I actually don’t really know how much has been committed from the Ukrainian side and whether it has been reconnaissance/probing/positioning fights or completely serious attempts with everything. Those are the two interpretations in the thread, that Ukraine does not have the capacity and that Ukraine is a steamroller starting to get up steam.
Since one has gotten used to quick tweets, one wants things to happen within a week.
The unit maps seem to be accurate and Ukraine has a solid hit to deliver in Kherson is at least my assessment.
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There are many puzzle pieces that need to fall into place and two I think we have seen in the last +1 week, a large number of knocked-out depots and heavy pre-battle of Russians in defense. The latter logically precedes an attack. We have for at least a month seen greatly increased activity of air and army aviation near Kherson and they probably strike all reserves being brought up, they are thinned out to use a Gregg. We have also seen offensive operations near Kherson for quite a while now even if it hasn’t moved as much as we hoped and even if Ukraine hasn’t launched that mechanized offensive we all want to see on drone films with sweeping panoramic flyovers, to the latest within the Ukrainian music scene. The fleet has also been driven away, Russian air denied access and Russian artillery decimated. The partisans have also risen as one man and they have a limited lifespan and increase activity when it starts to get close.
-from my side I think it looks like the stage is set for something fun.
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What I am quite sure of here is that Zelensky would NOT have gone out and told the whole world that Ukraine shall now take back Kherson and behind the southern front if Ukraine had thrown in everything and not advanced in the last month. That would be very un-Ukrainian. There is a lot of prestige at stake here and making big speeches and then delivering zero does not command respect, ask Putin and Scholtz.
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The other is that Zelensky would not announce his intention so early so the Russians had two weeks to move everything to Kherson. It should logically start quite immediately or that all crossing points over the Dnieper are covered with so much fire that crossing them becomes a death sentence.
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The alternative would be if they have a double-layered plan, to trick the Russians into starting to move lots of BTGs to Kherson and the southern front that get mechanical failures on the highway and are knocked out by air and then in UFA with HIMARS?
That the whole thing is just a way to ease pressure for Siversk – Bakhmut type?
To get in as much as possible west of the Dnieper so that the southern front is drained and then close the bridges?
– could always be so but more reasonable would be if they struck and Zelensky now goes public with it because the Russians already know what is in motion.
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I am very curious about what equipment Ukraine has received that Gregg writes about in the Ombudsman’s post above 🙂
It can only really be offensive weapons and armor because that is really what Ukraine needs for an offensive here.
We reasoned the other day that Ukraine might have kept quiet about it so as not to reveal their offensive capability before they struck? Air and artillery have already been strengthened I think.
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Gregg also writes something very interesting in the Ombudsman’s post, that the maneuver brigades are now equipped so it’s the territorials’ turn 🙂