15:17
A note that WarMonitor now does a bit like CanadianUkrainian, he posts information as if it were his own but scans various channels. Probably some direct info but filters quite hard.
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Kyselivka has been artillery bombed by the Russians for two days which is both good and bad, if one guesses Ukraine has advanced to the ravine just south of Kyselivka but then there is a huge open field down to Chornobaivka and I have found it too incredible that Ukraine would push straight south from Kyselivka but stranger things have happened in this war.
I thought they would come in from the west towards Kherson and then stop at artillery range.
That said Kyselivka is now within artillery range of the bridges over Kherson and they should be locked down.
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Then remains the bridge at Khakovka and there I am quite sure Ukraine has not gained a foothold, the Russians seem to still be trying to plug that hole at huge losses one can guess. That bridge is still a job for HIMARS.
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The big question is whether Ukraine wants to retake the whole area west of the Dnipro or is content with cutting off the retreat over the bridges? It feels like they want a win here for the country and then maybe they clean up the swamp and retake Kherson, Khakovka etc.
19:05
They have had their Armenia moment and nothing they have left can win the war for them, possibly prolong it.
Of the options above ABC weapons almost feel like what they might grasp at but then it is probably a bit further gone than now, like a full offensive on Ukraine and giving them a real suicide middle finger.
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That’s where the thread and I have hoped that there is some inertia that works against the use but the Russians have so far shown themselves capable of everything.
20:06
Yeah those 1000 155mm shells would have been nice to see on the roof of a T62.
Last week we interpreted it as pre-bombardment of the lines in Kherson judging by the fires but maybe it is as you say with old Soviet artillery tubes.
It is quite intense at Kherson and the southern front, I think they have tried to take strategic places for further offensive. The latest is Kyselivka in the daily artillery report for a couple of days which is nice
The big question is of course whether “the big offensive” will be some kind of all-out war or if they push on as now and bumble forward. I still don’t think we have seen the main force in battle and the unit maps are fairly consistent about which brigades are operating around Kherson.
20:08
This thing with Archer, 300km range and all the other stuff circulating has come after the defense minister went around asking for weapons.
Could be that the Ukrainians use it as pressure to try to fulfill promises?
Most recently there should be good news coming from the Germans soon according to the minister whatever delivery that may be.
20:08
Feels like Ukraine is pressing hard now to get heavy offensive weapons.
14:31
Now there was a whole discussion above but spread over several posts, Gregg, who is the guy in the pit getting info flying by, has from his position noted that they are being shelled with 122mm, LOGISTICS posted Gregg’s FB above – significant I think because it means they are short on heavier calibers otherwise they would have fired with heavier calibers.
If you claim the opposite it becomes the same as with the T62 – a damn good vehicle in defense so very good, kind of, but if they had T90s available they would have gone on the defense instead.
-by the way an interesting post in the thread a few days ago that the new models are the ones that have been looted because the older ones didn’t have any valuable electronics – a genuine Afghan.
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HIMARS is a piece of the puzzle in combating the rear, target data another and ammunition supply a third. Russia has fired what, 3000 rockets with large explosive power against Ukraine but hasn’t damaged Ukraine in the same way at all.
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I think they partly have lousy target data and then not the same accuracy as HIMARS but if you fire many, sure you would have hit Ukraine’s depots too if you knew where they were. Then the last thing is the ability to get ammunition forward, there Ukraine succeeds but not the Russians because their truck fleet is starting to falter. Ukraine can also have larger depots in Eastern Europe that are safe which is perfect.
Russia has also fired at hubs and railway bridges but Ukraine still gets what they need. When Ukraine does the same it limits the Russians considerably.
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Took a look at Putin’s statement and it is an admission, of course it will be spun to NATO, stab-in-the-back and all that but he blinked first. I’ll bet the famous five hundred that before too long peace overtures will start coming from some elements in the West here, stop killing children and all that. Guess the war is too far gone and the punishment must be dealt, there is no middle ground anymore.
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Also saw that Lithuania has received Abrams and Bradley so Magnus Redin is probably right that they are sending existing Eastern bloc armor to Ukraine and building up our eastern bulwark with decent materiel. One can hope they top it up with some capable armor as the Dutch have now promised, still want to see some CV90s in Ukraine 🙂
Now as said MBT and IFV are the last pieces of the puzzle for this war to be able to end.
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Then we have this popular theory that the USA would want the war to last as long as possible. Feels like HIMARS has accelerated the timeline considerably here so we can probably file that away as conspiracy and Russian psyops.
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Kyselivka was on today’s artillery list again 👍