11:23
A hundred steps ahead as usual.
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The free world has awakened from its democratic slumber after a long time of peace that the free world created through diligent work, diplomacy, aid and sometimes a war.
When a dictator like Putin comes to power there is a longer period when the free West tries to compromise, give and calm down hoping that the dictator just wants to steal money and live with his stripper pole and a couple of horses.
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When the red line is crossed, rogue states are always ahead, this time the airbag was good enough and the dictator a real bungler so he barely got past the starting line before he stumbled and face-planted to everyone’s cheers. Last time it happened it was a fast little devil who made several laps on the track before the faster guys in their Free West t-shirts caught up and stamped him into the ground and ran past.
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The free West has a broad spectrum of opinions and works differently in many ways but they seem to have one thing in common, when it really matters they stand up. The conclusion from this war is of course that we will have 100 years of peace because the free West was strong enough, and above all that Ukraine was a formidable airbag. Had Ukraine fallen immediately it would have become messy with countries down in the Balkans allied with the bunker dwarf, China would have started moving and above all Germany would have given in. Now our leaders can stand and peek out from behind the wall of Ukrainian soldiers and feel that they might be able to do a little more than write a strong letter and that was crucial.
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When eventually Russia is isolated behind a NATO wall and there is a bundle of sanctions that work and they have control over China then the West through NATO can handle the watch and we can go back to being free market economies trying to build prosperity for all. The EU’s eastern front will from now on be formidable and the EU and USA will pay for the rearmament so that these countries don’t break economically.
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The free West is not perfect but I would rather live under American dominance than Russian or Chinese and I think all fully functioning Swedes would agree. The world is not fair and the West makes up some things they shouldn’t but on the other hand there are oppressive-colonial-dictatorships.
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The fact is that it is time to come to terms with their colonialism which they got a free pass for because the communist revolution was something good. Being Uighur or a -stan is not like living in Gothenburg directly. I think the punishment will also be an autonomous demilitarized Kaliningrad under EU protection and a color revolution in Belarus so we get a sensible border against Russia.
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Then that demilitarized zone inside Russia maintained by force and violence against all movement of offensive weapons. They can have them, just not drive around with them in certain areas.
11:26
Was meant as a reply to the post above but became too unrelated when it went off on a tangent…
13:47
Yeah you’re with me on that right?
Usually write Stuka/sniper effect now to be clearer but it is a new weapon whose effect there is no protection against and anyone can be hit anytime. It spreads great fear and desire to flee.
I think 1000 Excaliburs will give a similar effect as HIMARS; once every fifteen minutes in a combat position there is some group or vehicle that gets hit right in the middle, a single hit. then it is completely silent and then the next dies.
You know you will die, just not when and there is no protection at all when it was your trench’s coordinates that were next.
The big race to the bridges over the Dnieper can probably accelerate a lot with this Stuka effect, it simply creates panic.
A sustained artillery rain where you might die but probably survive is bearable in a completely different way.
14:41
Yeah god sometimes you have to keep figuring out which word it was, then when you split the post and finally send a lot of text all posts suddenly get approved and the thread is completely spammed.
WordPress just has a hard time with that guy basically…
Exactly so with Stukas 🙂
20:02
Matt, I forgot that. He had jumped on when Ukraine’s car dealers put on that “I really can’t afford it” face when they wanted Western armor. Those statements were the most pessimistic.
I have interpreted it as being to get offensive modern weapons.
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Russia is increasing though, they have gotten in more than we guessed but the quality of a BTG is worse now than at the start of the war even if they are used better.
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He probably hasn’t made a mistake because he has quoted official statements and that can always be to get Austria to donate Leo2 to Ukraine?
20:52
If you go by three very persistent rumors, one half-confirmed – Polish tanks and a dark horse, F-16, it seems Ukraine has managed to scrape together what it needs for a win before Christmas or shortly thereafter.
There is no reason for a frozen conflict and the darkest Donbass will take time to clear but when it lies there as a small island without maintenance there is no chance it can hold out.
23:50
Markus Reisner in his June 17 review considered that 7 MLRS and 4 HIMARS were low, so it wouldn’t make a difference in the “short and middle term”.
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It aged poorly, feel like he was a bit out of the loop but on June 17 it was, after all, only Solros2022 who kept nagging about HIMARS and the rest of us were still struggling with spelling so excused.
00:07
I’m starting to feel that the blue team has taken a couple of shots on goal and the play is mostly on the red team’s half.
We’re waiting for the first goal now (Kherson).
We’re not quite at the point where the red defense collapses and goals start pouring in past a way too short little bunker dwarf who looks lost in goal but the blue team is building a dominance that the red team cannot meet. Their substitute bench is middle-aged and looks a bit droopy and seasick.
00:26
Now we have a confirmed one, 300km. Leo2 and F-16 remain as tsunami rumors. The Polish armor and the French Pbtg are almost confirmed?
Then a Swede keeps quiet but that is what, 4-6 systems?
You can complain about the CV90, enough for a mechanized battalion so you can get that panorama flyover with drones and then it’s done.
The defense minister can almost stop his begging rounds now.
14:31
The media never seems to learn. Now they’re gone for a while and then there’s a long discussion about DN’s uncritical reproduction of Russia’s lies that they shelled military targets. How on earth is this even possible this far into the war?
We’re beyond sloppy mistakes and learning curves now because after 4 months they’ve had time to calibrate to reality.
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What I also miss in our media are the horror stories about the Russians’ advance, it should be a front-page article every day paired with an article on how the heroes at the front are taking back their country. This leads me to believe that the Kremlin has developed a black belt in getting out its narrative and that as a journalist you have to be damn careful about picking up news positive for Russia.
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If I were editor-in-chief I would have banned articles positive to Russia or statements from Russia in my newspaper until the war is over. I would also have issued an editorial explaining why that decision was made.
To unreservedly support Ukraine which is subjected to an aggressive war and ethnic cleansing with WW2 intensity.
15:10
I think it was with Stefpalm a discussion a week ago and we ended with that we should watch out for planted information in the truth. Now everything came at once. He has aired nuclear weapons before.
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Previously considered that he stayed close to the truth about the situation on the ground and was a source from the dark side that could be paired with light information. But there he got Siversk wrong which is a big (deliberate) mistake. Had one picked that up one would have started unraveling that the whole Siversk-Bakhmut line would be rolled up. The conclusion is that he plants false information even there (now) so you have to completely disregard him.
There was some piece of technical information until he got it wrong, don’t remember now but it popped out.
Now this doesn’t change anyone’s life but Girkin as a source for anything is completely useless 🙂
15:15
Now that we can establish that Girkin is indeed a Girkin, we move on to Gregg.
He wrote over a week ago that the Russians would move units from the eastern front to Kherson.
The first information we got was too few vehicles, about 10 so that wasn’t enough.
Now we have this, 100 vehicles.
Gregg was thus right about this early information and is therefore a step higher on the list. It was admittedly Zaporozhye but that’s the same in my opinion.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3530379-large-column-of-enemy-vehicles-drives-via-mariupol-towards-zaporizhzhia-region.html
11:04
There was a long discussion about Reisner and Ukraine’s 60 BTG against the Russians’ 108 BTG a few days ago and I never got to see the YouTube clip in time. Now I saw it last night and wrote a post late which I am bumping again for the sole reason of contributing to that discussion since it was left open, I felt.
The spelling was probably poor in the middle of the night but you can manage to get through it.
Conclusion, everything is as it should be and Ukraine wins 🙂
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There was a discussion a few days ago about what Markus R said, late I know but in these meetings you have to do other things and Markus Reisner is fun otherwise, a living god.
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He said that – in DONBASS Ukraine had 20 brigades and the Russians 93 BTG. That now changes to 60 BTG for Ukraine and 108 for the Russians – totally fine, it is in DONBASS, nothing strange. I had a few brigades more.
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New info. The Russians get two trains a week with material to Donbass.
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He praises an old Ukrainian platoon leader he had under him at the UN who died, friendship better than neutrality and looks into the camera during a long silence.
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The conclusion is that there was nothing strange about what he said, Ukraine is on the defense and at a disadvantage in Donbass, we know that.
Then he is the origin of legends with his telescopic baton and really tries to make the presentations interesting, now he had green thumbs up where things went well and red thumbs down where things went badly. That guy together with Warstache definitely has a future.
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I know it’s late but I hope those who have seen Reisner and didn’t understand and were worried can read this post that everything is as it should be, Ukraine wins and Reisner is god 🙂