17:45
There has been some talk about combating Russian air defenses now but not much in the lottery line, the administrator is still on the beach and updates sporadically.
It is appropriate ahead of an offensive to gain more space for own air force and to prevent larger long-range weapons from being shot down.
17:56
Speculation, we know that the Russians have sent quite a few reinforcements to Kherson recently, at least 4 BTGs probably a couple more. These convoys on the way are easy targets for aircraft and army aviation and now we have HIMARS.
I don’t know if all are heading into Kherson and if the Ukrainian Air Force is too dense but as soon as they approach Davydiv Brid it will be grilled BTG. I can’t quite figure this out because it could just as well have been grilled BTG at the crossings or east of the Dnieper with today’s artillery range and how the air force moves.
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Could there be some idea behind pulling as many BTGs as possible to the western side of the Dnieper?
I don’t know but I don’t think there is an obvious reason not to strike the reinforcements as early as possible on the road except that it might mean the Russians reconsider and retreat to the eastern side of the Dnieper and go on the defense.
17:56
As soon as they move into UFA it whistles, we see these clusters of fires all the time and then during the attacks so it’s not that Ukraine is not fighting them, just that they don’t do it as early as they reasonably should be able to.
19:33
Yes, it’s starting to get a bit too much to sit passive and there are surely discussions about appropriate escalation. Now the 300km, F-16, Leo2 and IFV are on the way in along with all the ammunition they can carry. The Ukrainian Air Force will probably form a no-fly zone over western Ukraine soon if not already. They have the army so the Poles are hardly needed but if Lukas goes in they will probably be quick.
They are training Ukraine’s army etc. The West’s SOF probably have the most overtime pay ever.
I am convinced that if Ukraine just gets decent MBTs and IFVs this crap will be over around Christmas.
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Then comes phase 2, demilitarized zone, sanctions and all that and trying to get Ukraine back to a normal state while they have an ENORMOUS army along their land border.
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The absolutely most important thing here is to give the Ukrainians a welcome, otherwise we have the EU’s new dominant mafia operating throughout the area within 2-3 years. If they feel respect and get hope for the future, Ukraine can become one of the dominant countries in the EU and they will become economically very strong, they have excellent industry and agriculture and now also a world-class army.
21:47
The Bottom Is Reached feels a bit like now, it can only get better. I have also thought about the post-war. Ikea has put Sweden on the map and other things we have done that have been good.
Ukraine was kind of cheap labor and a corrupt old Soviet state living in Russia’s shadow.
The marketing they have gotten through this war cannot be bought with money.
-I really try not to slip up here but if I do I will apologize immediately.
The EU will feel that Ukraine is a full member pretty much immediately, even if it takes time, and Ukrainians in the EU will have about Polish level. Ask Bulgaria and Romania how it feels not to have that. The Roma EU migrants have almost cemented how people see a Romanian.
Their arms industry is a winner and EVERYONE, absolutely EVERYONE will buy Made in Ukraine in the next 10-15 years.
That flag will be like a Che Guevara T-shirt roughly.
09:27
Yes, that’s correct. What I tried to write was how the country was perceived by the outside world, not how it is/was. Those with insight like you, those with Ukrainian family and those whose companies have offices in Ukraine know exactly how it is.
They have, as I wrote, good heavy industry, defense industry, agriculture, electricity production and a good age distribution of the population. I forgot IT.
17:44
The best thing about Archer and HIMARS is that they can quickly move out of a geographic area.
The Russians will always know which area a platform is moving in and will occasionally take a chance that aircraft will spot them. The slower tracked vehicles have to move in cover/protection and have camouflage, etc.
First, the goal is to get away from counter-battery/long-range weapons.
Then, not to be detected by aircraft.
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Now the 300km ammunition solves that because then all systems can stay at a proper distance from the front, you don’t need to move any forward to hit in the darkest Donbass but can launch rockets from the west of the Dnieper under the Ukrainian Air Force umbrella.