19:27
There have been rumors flying around that the Antonovsky Bridge is prestressed reinforced. I have googled but can’t get that confirmed. A slab-reinforced bridge can be repaired with these damages, but a prestressed reinforced bridge cannot be repaired as the damages look now.
19:40
Now I read the blog and see that the blogger has discussed reinforcement etc. in detail, so the above comment can be dismissed.
19:49
Yes exactly, I always thought they would let the Russians choose and then they would clear the area inside Inhulets, but Ukraine was smarter than that and has cut exactly all the bridges (except probably the dam bridge as you say) so it became two counterattacks just as you say.
I thought about the dam bridge that then they have to move on the road down there and then there will be traffic jams etc., so they will take enormous losses there anyway. Then there has been some speculation in the thread about whether a well-aimed shot can make the roadway impassable without destroying the dam.
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If you want to be picky, the Russians will probably put a 30-caliber on that dam when they realize that no more Russians will be able to cross it, that’s what I think.
19:56
So Crimea is already “retaken” by the fact that they take Melitopol and then first threaten to blow up the Kerch Bridge and then if needed cut it. Crimea will fall along the way.
21:27
I’m no bridge expert even though I do a lot of work on bridge repairs in my job, but I am quite sure that if reinforcement is cut in prestressed reinforced bridges (bridge segments), it cannot be repaired, it is impossible.
Then it may depend on how it is built, but if it is Xm between segments and the reinforcement in one segment has been cut, then that segment is impassable and it doesn’t matter what you do.
Hopefully it is so far that the Russians cannot put any bridge pillars – bridge pillars and drive over on it.
19:13
It’s pretty clear what Ukraine’s intention with the bridge is, right?
Hard to take out – yes, but they have the will and ammunition, so they keep pushing.
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We’ve reached a point where everyone understands that Kherson will soon be de-Russified.
There is inertia in this until there is no more inertia, and then it goes fast. What really accelerates the process is the threat of encirclement, and that has now been activated.
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Got asked the other day about the timeline, it’s comfortable to be super positive all the time with a nice – soon it will happen – without specifying further.. In May, Ukraine launched its first counteroffensives. The Russians’ offensive capacity was indeed far beyond what I expected, but it still went badly for them. Then came the long-awaited offensive at Kherson with some exciting river crossings, but it turned out to be positional battles. With further preparations and HIMARS + guided 155mm shells, it’s probably time for offensive operations “for real” – the stage is at least set and the acrobat group is warming up with deep squats.
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For a couple of weeks, there has been pre-bombardment and the bridges are cut. There are enough maneuver brigades; in a few months the roads will be muddy and the Russian offensive has now stalled. Since I thought the Russians would lose their will to fight already in May, I thought Ukraine would attack as soon as the Russians stopped, but the Russians kept going until now, and now they have started to falter a bit, so there is a chance that Ukraine will choose to act now when the Russians are at their weakest.
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Timeline?
If you ask me, the western side of the Dnipro will be de-Russified before the end of August. When the bottom falls out, it will go fast, is my guess; which day it breaks is impossible to predict, tomorrow or weeks away. There is probably great worry among the thieving magpies now, how to get home with all the stolen goods now that they can’t drive the loot over the bridges. The bases are probably a full carpentry workshop and homemade forklifts go for several bottles of vodka.
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Timeline southern front, Ukraine has prepared for a proper blow there it seems. They are not stupid enough not to try to exploit the chaos at Kherson to take Melitopol and maybe they will succeed, but if not, it feels like there will be some inertia there?
There should also be no Stuka effect at the southern front, so Ukraine will have to break through.
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How long will it take then?
The long haul depends on what reinforcements the Russians can bring, but taking Melitopol during the autumn seems quite reasonable if all the pins don’t fall immediately and they have to fight their way down from Tokmak. Ukraine has that as a prioritized goal.
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Beyond Melitopol, it’s hard to predict; here Russia can simply throw in the towel and retreat or fight for every meter. Next in line after that is probably Izyum
and to go east from the Oskil river and then make life hard for the Russians in Donbass until they pull out. The timeline for that we will have clear in August-September, but it is quite clear that Ukraine wants to try to throw the Russians out of their territory as soon as possible. A long war gives openings for Putin.