13:44
I thought T-P (the word all social media has blocked) was a bit of a fresh breeze in the beginning but now I see that if he had been in power Ukraine would be a German puppet province today.
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Biden has acted as he should and has saved the free world.
16:18
The bridge is full of retreating Russians that the Ukrainian air force can make attack runs on when they stop over at the breach?
Then Ukraine probably plans to cross up at Khakovka because if they cross at Kherson they drive straight into the line of the Crimean Canal. If they have planned to cross the Dnipro at all.
16:18
Was going to Klasa far up I think, ended up completely wrong.
16:19
It was MickeUppsala.
16:26
The Crimean Canal is fortified, we know that, and on the unit maps there are Russians in Melitopol.
Khakovka on the eastern side is presumably fortified.
Further north I think it’s possible to boat companies across undisturbed.
Of course the Russians have defenses against the Dnipro and northwards on the southern front but the question is how much.
If everything at Kherson disappears overnight it might turn out that they have 2-3 BTGs to defend the eastern side of the Dnipro or something and that it’s not enough.
Now maybe it’s starting to be replenished but they have to be taken from somewhere, e.g. the southern front and then that weakens it.
13:39
Sitting and pondering yesterday about what happens when Kherson collapses, could we get a domino effect?
Such things are insanely difficult to predict, at the start of the war one hoped that on May 9 the army would stage a revolution and when seeing the parade one understood that THEN the Ukraine war was just an annoying buzzing mosquito. There was enormous inertia and what happened in Ukraine stayed in Ukraine.
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Fast forward to the end of July, the Russian army is shaken but you can still keep pushing in infantry and varying ages of armor for quite a while. A soldier from Siberia who signed a lucrative contract and goes to Ukraine probably doesn’t understand the extent of his mistake until he finds himself in a human-wave assault on Bakhmut and then it’s a bit too late. Then it repeats endlessly.
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The jungle drum also exists in the Russian army and what could happen if it is subjected to a serious shock?
Like 15,000 (does this number seem to be the consensus now?) surrendering at Kherson.
That would immediately free 6 Ukrainian brigades who move on to the next place and then increase the pressure on the southern front, Izyum and maybe at Donbass?
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Now I think we’ve all reached a point where we feel hoping for miracles is pointless and better to do as Ukraine has already understood and focus on throwing out the Russians, and if they turn home on their own it’s a nice bonus. But do we think there’s any chance of a bigger collapse than a local crash at Kherson and that one then has to deal with the front sectors one by one?
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In reality, you can choke off supplies to the southern front the same way as at Kherson just by getting a couple of HIMARS and when only Donbass remains, the same thing. They strike at hubs and depots (which always exist somewhere) and eventually the shells run out. Now it’s not HIMARS itself but paired with target data and then offensive capability it becomes impossible for the Russians to hold on to Ukrainian territory no matter the area.