17:32
The anecdotes are many and continue to pour in daily. I understand on one level how they reason, basically a communist-romanticism and then they have absorbed pro-Russian channels for so long that they are simply miscalibrated.
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For me, there was an immediate recalibration when the war started, Russia – aggressor – bad, Ukraine – victim – good. Everything is actually black and white right now because you are never allowed to blame a victim, the gray areas do not exist.
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For those who cannot manage this very simple and morally correct journey and are adults, I actually find it hard to grasp, they live and reside in Sweden/EU and have all the welfare and freedom that comes with it but they engage in some kind of, according to themselves morally superior, subversive activity?
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During the Cold War, the boundaries were much clearer even in a democracy like Sweden but if you disregard that, how can one have seen all these atrocities committed, and they are completely incomprehensible, and still not abandon their position that Russia is acting with some kind of right here?
We are no longer talking about Mariupol but there you have roughly 50,000 dead civilians or thereabouts.
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The card is always played that – yes, but higher up on the page there is an article critical of Russia etc. but ONE single negative article about Ukraine is one too many. Never blame the victim.
20:54
For some reason, France’s nuclear power apparently is struggling this year. Last year/a normal year they export 20 TWh and this year apparently only 2 TWh. Now this is confusing but is there reason to believe there is foul play behind it?
Those 18 TWh are quite critical if they don’t get going by autumn?
(half on-topic)
21:26
There is an interesting streak of fires SE of Rostov na Don and then west of that.
It stands out quite a bit on FIRMS.
Do we have information about forest fires down there or what is it?
It shouldn’t be maintenance going that way?
21:30
This one is really far out even for me but the idea was roughly that in France there has been reasoning that if there is a power shortage this winter then maybe Ukraine will be forced to its knees and that is good because (don’t know).
They have then steered it towards low output on nuclear power but as Johan writes above, it is routine maintenance and they will ramp up so the chimneys glow just in time for October.
Any Native American would probably call Macron two-faced but I really don’t think that is the case.
00:40
The attacks on the airbases are Moscow-sized, the Russians are in full panic and the versions clash and they keep a safe distance from the truth – that can only mean this really stung 🙂
If it has started sinking in that all their larger depots at a safe distance have a remaining lifespan of a few weeks then it must be really bad mood in the Russian command.
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Just like a couple above, I am very curious about the explosion in Belarus, I am quite convinced that there are now enough long-range weapons to hit hard at the rear-rear that the Russians have now built up outside the 80km line.
When 777 came we were flooded with front-line knocked out everything and then with HIMARS it was a step up and we got nice smoke plumes.
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Now the airbase in Crimea was not the main depot in Donbass that makes a moon crater but it was comparable and there should be a couple more moon crater-worthy high-value targets. What will the Russians do after that?
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What has happened in the last 1.5 months is almost on par with the air campaign that started the Kuwait war, then command posts, air defenses, airbases and radars were knocked out in an intense campaign. We probably have 30-40 knocked out command posts, a few hundred depots, 134 air defenses and a hell of a lot of transport capacity vaporized.
Not even the Russians have infinite generals, functioning trucks and ammunition.
Now they have started to get order on armor and infantry, both are low quality but they exist. The ammunition is impossible to figure out.
tour-de-777 is probably front-line and surely a couple of HIMARS also working against Russia-in-the-ground now. 5000 guided shells for the 155mm platforms, there aren’t that many hard vehicles at the fronts…
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You think you have it a bit slow with meetings in the middle of the night like tonight but that is nothing compared to the stomach ulcer and the acute stress the officers in the Russian command must have now 🙂
14:09
Soon we will probably have to release this Amnesty report, but apart from the timing being terrible and the crisis management even worse, zero focus on illness…
I think the biggest sinners when it comes to grouping themselves in densely populated areas AND actively using human shields are the Russians (not to mention who is killing all the civilians).
Then we have the whole issue of heavily focusing on capturing nuclear power plants and power stations just to be able to group there.
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If you go to Amnesty’s website, they have for example commented on the castrations and what is written there does not raise eyebrows. One can only conclude that this report was hijacked and exploited for the wrong purpose and that the leadership has been too slow to realize that they have moles among their friends.
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This whole mess is a prime example that one negative report is one too many, right now as an opinion maker you are not allowed to write anything negative about Ukraine, that can be saved until the Russians are thrown out.
If Amnesty had just implemented that policy, they would have done just fine.