16:29
Eastern side for Pion…
16:35
Yes, the cult of personality totally went to his head.
Then it takes a special type of personality to climb to the top in a country like Russia, several diagnoses and those you weren’t born with you probably learned in the KGB?
—
I am endlessly fascinated that Putin has made exactly the same journey as Hitler, only that he made his mistakes immediately. There are so many points of contact that it’s almost incomprehensible.
I have also understood the complexity with the free West, that you compromise for too long but if you cross the line then you end up like Napoleon, Hitler or Putin.
17:10
Yes, it’s quite difficult to predict in the FIRMS swamp right now 🙂
It’s really only the Siversk – Bakhmut line that is showing artillery activity according to FIRMS, pretty calm in other Ukrainian areas.
And… just as you write, it’s really lively in the darkest Donbass and then down towards Rostov on Don and east of that.
I was zooming in and out but can’t quite figure out what they might have east of Rostov on Don of value and then you must not forget forest fires in the middle of summer.
—
But, if you zoom out a lot on Russia it’s completely bright red in the darkest Donbass – Rostov on Don and east of that and not a red dot anywhere else (exaggeration for effect). And we hear nothing…
At least the city of Rostov on Don has been a big supply hub and there are many high-value targets there. Belgorod is probably done with.
One can only hope that Ukraine keeps pounding with long-range weapons or remote patrols 🙂
Noteworthy that Kyiv has exactly 1 red dot…
18:11
The more you sit and look at this the more you wonder if it’s not Mariupol that is Phase 2 here?
There are quite a few brigades in that area now.
—
Then Ukraine is strong in Donbass and northwards. The Russians had, according to rumors, pushed in 50% of their units at Kherson/Southern front and they are definitely around Vasylivka and Tokmak those who are east of the Dnipro.
The Kherson Russians are now locked in.
Volnovakha towards Mariupol and near Donetsk do not have a high density of Russian units.
—
In lack of anything else one speculates further 🙂
18:20
East of the Dnipro lies Vasylivka which is quite a potent defense and which according to many reports has been heavily reinforced, probably because the Russians think the same, losing the eastern bank would be a bit embarrassing.
—
The second possibility is to slip in “between” the two defensive lines down towards Tokmak and they are probably working on that but the Russians have also reinforced there.
—
The third possibility is to jump on Volnovakha and down towards Mariupol which is still semi-open, not so strongly fortified I think you can see?
—
Alternative four – pick one of the above and unleash the flood with 777 and HIMARS until you can walk through the Russian defensive lines and take selfies in front of burning T62s. They managed to take Tokmachka (not Tokmak) that way – I still can’t find that town.
—
They will probably come up with something now that Phase 1 is completed to lock in the Kherson Russians west of the Dnipro. You can really feel in your toes that something bigger is going on here 🙂
20:38
I think exactly that, it’s the inertia in the Russian decision-making chain that gives Ukraine the win.
Combat command in the field does not report correctly upwards, they sugarcoat the pig and the bunker dwarf fights maps like the worst Hitler.
In his world it’s probably a good move to head towards Odessa in a few months, best to build up and hold the bridgehead, and just as you write, not a stroke back.
Now even a preschool class can see where Kherson is heading so imagine when it goes really fast somewhere, then completely insane orders will come down that waste even more BTGs.
16:28
This thing about pulling away political leadership and combat command to the eastern side of the Dnipro feels very Russian.
If we know this, the Russians-in-the-trench also know it, maybe there is truth behind the blogger’s claims that Russian soldiers are trying to buy everything that floats?
We have discussed this quite thoroughly with an unorganized retreat and all that follows, colorful rubber ducks at the front. The Russian army seems to me like an organization where this absolutely can happen and now there is almost a receipt for it when everyone with stars was allowed on board the ferry to the western side. Not much leadership from the front there 🙂
—
What we know is that Russian units west of the Dnipro are not receiving supplies and cannot retreat in good order. Those are two pretty strong reasons for panic among the Russians-in-the-trench but this panic must be triggered by something. This something is likely a Ukrainian advance somewhere that would spread this panic, for example Khakovka?
That might be enough to create the feeling that it’s over, when it spreads that Ukraine is down at Khakovka on the western bank of the Dnipro.
Or it might be something else, boats crossing the Dnipro north of Khakovka to create a feeling that Ukraine will take the eastern riverbank of the Dnipro (which won’t actually happen but if you can start a rumor…).
Do you think the same effect can be achieved with an armageddon of indirect fire but not over Kherson, maybe that will be difficult?
—
What are the Russian countermeasures, pulling back combat command to east of the Dnipro, well then they can’t prevent panic and HIMARS will find them anyway in their new command post. They are trying to get Pion self-propelled howitzers to the front, long-range ones that can stand on the western side, but they are supposed to fire from the latest blown-up railway bridge and are probably in poor condition and then they have to unload – HIMARS.
Reinforce more on the western side – it’s probably coming to an end now, those who are there have to manage the defense.
—
– Most likely they will start going on the defensive on the eastern side of the Dnipro now I guess.
If they go on the defensive on the eastern side of the Dnipro, they have to take those units from somewhere because the units on the western side are going nowhere. This will be either the southern front or Izyum – Donbass which then weakens and opens for Ukrainian offensives. A near-term lottery ticket.
—
Right now the Russians actually feel completely reactive in everything, they try to plug the holes and at the same time keep up an offensive in Donbass hoping it will yield something but it doesn’t, they are going nowhere and losses are high. It’s not so much that Ukraine has really taken the initiative as that the Russians are fully occupied with defense everywhere except in Donbass, a bit hard to explain maybe.
—
Today’s artillery list contained many place names, haven’t bothered to google them but some looked new. Otherwise nice discussion in the thread today.