12:06
Yes 🙂
That is an interesting thought, I haven’t gotten that far yet, you are ahead.
I have probably thought that it was Ukraine that was in a hurry because of Western support, but since the USA and UK will never give up and provide the lion’s share, especially the USA, maybe there is no time pressure. If the artillery and missile barrage stops, that would make a big difference.
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I have probably thought that Russia would benefit from a long war, but not an open war like now, rather a frozen conflict where they have a foot in the door in a couple of provinces. The intense conflict that is happening now they probably need to stop fairly soon and then have a couple of years to prepare for round 3.
09:43
Earlier we discussed that autumn and up to Christmas is a bit critical for a long war will be positive for Putin, then he can turn the West away from Ukraine (we have guessed that). Right now there is enormous scare propaganda about electricity prices but then electricity prices are also worryingly high, in the Baltics apparently 45 SEK/kWh according to Swedish media, haven’t checked, it’s worth eating cold cuts. So it is in the cards that something bigger is underway than what we have seen so far.
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Many, including me, have underestimated the inertia in the Russian organization, they just keep going despite enormous losses. Just yesterday there was that VDV interview where his “brigade” had extreme losses but despite that, there were almost no ones who dared to sit on their hands and refuse the war.
Then I have guessed that Russian attacks/units go towards zero and then they just fill up with new ones and do the same again – they do not conserve at all. The reserves have been a bit of a gray area and clearly the Russians have brought out more than was thought. I thought for quite a while that the Russians had their 6-8 BTGs at Kherson but now there are between 10,000 – 25,000 men there, 20,000 has recently circulated as some truth. What they absolutely seem to do is send away empty shells, keep the BTG designation, and then just fill up with new personnel who have not yet understood what chaos awaits – a bit like a disposable item.
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After the big sulking day where it later turned out that it matched well with the thread’s thoughts on why Lysychansk was abandoned, the brigades were too worn out, we have seen that the line Siversk – Bakhmut with the flanks’ anchors holds. This new line became exactly the BTG grill Lysychansk would become and the worry that the Russians would ignore this new line was unfounded, they clearly have an enormous will to die here. That line is a natural defensive line with communities, down south there are good anchors and in the north there is Slovyansk/Kramatorsk. Siversk is probably the weakness in the line that requires intelligent maneuver warfare along the Siversky Donets river.
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The Russians seem to be conducting some slow evacuation of Izyum up to the Oskil river, or at least they are not reinforcing that front section. We know that the Russians are reinforcing Kherson and the Southern front and Argus launched a theory yesterday that it would become the new focus area for the Russians – exciting to say the least 😊
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What have we seen so far?
We have seen local counteroffensives where Ukraine could and they have done well. They are gods at defending and probably have among the world’s best infantry by now.
There has been a prolonged pre-battle, in May they got western artillery going that started hitting front-near installations, then came HIMARS and 100 km became some kind of limit. Just as the thread discussed, they have struck in order against staffs, logistics, air defense, bases and most recently airports. What we do not see except in the daily lottery numbers is how they work against the artillery but the big bottleneck there is probably the ammunition which is becoming endangered. What we also do not hear much about anymore is when they lob guided ammunition against buried armor and Russians in pits but that must be ongoing non-stop. Those 5000 guided shells are supposed to be used for something.
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Now we have got confirmation of the second last puzzle piece, or maybe two missing, and that is ATACMS, I take Gregg as evidence that they are in Ukraine (don’t remember who posted yesterday). Not just Gregg maybe but because 10-12 targets beyond HIMARS range have been struck in the last +1 week.
The next puzzle piece, which I guess is already in place, is MBT, T72, P91, Leo 2 and maybe Abrams. Along with the French Renault vehicles and other small stuff that is splinter-protected. You have probably noticed just like me that it is very quiet about that now. The car salesman aka defense minister and Zelensky are no longer screaming hoarse about armor.
The last one is maybe F16 but a trickle of Mi29 and SU25 has flowed in here during the summer so the air force is probably stronger than we think, the army aviation has also received reinforcements.
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The infantry and key personnel have had five months to train and then they have conscription and maybe also combat experience in their baggage as well as a hell of a motivation to get a Russian. Actually, the US started training Ukrainian officers already in the early 2000s and in 2014 or so an army-wide training program began. 8 years is also quite a long time to reshape an army and what has been missing has really been the western materiel.
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While Ukraine’s capability is increasing exponentially, the Russian curve is quite tired. We have seen old tube artillery and old GRADs that were taken out of service 10 years ago mobilized, we have seen T62, Mosin Nagant, older aircraft taken from storage, older helicopters. The infantry quality has crashed totally and we have long guessed that there is a screaming lack of key competence – The Russian army is infinitely worse today than it was on February 24. However, the Russians managed to fix this with murderous artillery and human wave attacks for a while but now the artillery dominance is broken.
-How the Russian army will behave in rapid shifts one can only guess so far but not so good is probably a reasonable guess?
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What is going on?
-Kherson is already counted and has been discussed endlessly many times in all its different outcomes and probably needs no further presentation 😊
-The Southern front Ukraine probably intends to take Melitopol or Mariupol, whichever presents itself, but if the Russians focus on attacks there as Argus suggested, they will have to go on defense.
-What I am quite sure of is that the Southern front will be like Kherson, Russian air does not like the area and Ukrainian air almost has air superiority and then HIMARS reaches everything. They cut supply via Crimea and they cut supply from the east. It will be semi-starvation in the trenches and you see buried armor going up one after another until it’s time for your own trench. How long can you endure such a situation?
-Izyum is also already counted as the Russians have abandoned that front section.
-Crimea can also be counted in, I believe the Russians will voluntarily empty the peninsula when the time is right.
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After that?
-surely the Russians might try something at Kharkov/northern front but they don’t seem to get any Belarusians with them. Ukraine has also reinforced the northern front now so an attack southwards is almost organized suicide but the order can always come from the chief bungler.
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Now we have darkest Donbass left, the area east of the Oskil river and down by Mariupol. My thought is that with the weapons Ukraine now has it doesn’t matter which front section it is. You just do like at Kherson.
For practice, let’s take darkest Donbass, Ukraine starts by knocking out supply, air defense and bases inside Donbass, it probably took a month to sweep away most in Kherson and the Southern front and now they have many times more fire units.
Now that they have ATACMS they strike all supply hubs/nodes deep inside. Russia is not a country with many roads and railways but a couple of nodes deep inside.
At the same time SOF goes deep and breaks rails, lays mines and ambushes truck convoys which is the next step after the railway cannot be used.
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Now Donbass sits like an isolated island in the middle of a sea of nothing and does not get ammunition, food or materiel in general.
Just like behind the southern front and Kherson they infiltrate huge amounts of SOF that make life miserable for the occupying power.
Then they start lobbing in guided 155mm shells into the heads of all static defenses that they have logged for a long time. In addition loitering munition drones and all that new fun.
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It will not take many months before the defenders are quite tired and ready for either retreat or surrender. All reinforcements will be knocked out on the way as they are easy targets. I interpret it as three separate front sections that will undergo this process.
-East of the Oskil river and north of the Siversky Donets river.
-Between Luhansk and down to Donetsk and all terrain east of that.
-The Mariupol area and eastwards, Rostov na Don?
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When this is done, because it will be done 😊
Then Ukraine fortifies its border with brigade-sized units over X km that have a battalion or two on rotation and then maintains a demilitarized zone of maybe 30 km inside Russian territory with force. All border troops and police they blow away.
I would also like to see that as soon as long-range weapons move in the Black Sea or within shooting range of cities in Ukraine they are legitimate targets for ATACMS.
To achieve this Ukraine needs to have enough maneuver brigades fully equipped, an air force and long-range artillery in large quantities, it is not possible to lose everything already in round 2 which is why we see great restraint.
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Sure there are wildcards but you dare not hope for them, front collapse is one, Putin poisoned or hanging from a gas station another. I think right now that it is separate fronts that are dealt with one by one and that not everything collapses at once but that the end is inevitable. No point discussing any Russian escalation in the form of NBC, if it happens it happens.