10:36
I was sitting yesterday thinking that Zelensky is the best president Ukraine could have gotten, he is an excellent face outward and to hold the country together. The usual sour and grumpy men wouldn’t have done at all in the same way.
Then he will end up like all other great leaders – not re-elected after the war – but probably he will get a place at the higher level in Europe as thanks for this.
The guy who played guitar naked on TV was this century’s great leader.
13:01
This is how I remembered it 🙂
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/spanish-leopard-2a4-tanks-wont-be-heading-to-ukraine-but-do-we-know-why/
This article also states that it was the German parliament that had to approve.
Then the Spaniards realized that the tanks were not operational, true or not.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/08/04/spain-leopard-tanks-ukraine-2/
Then the Germans were supposed to send Leo2 but not much happened until a year or two later.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/21/german-offer-to-ukraine-20-leopard-2-tanks-delivery-every-month/
Then there was training
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-to-receive-leopard-tanks-for-training-at-first-reznikov/
The Dutch have promised to send armored vehicles and they have many Leo2
https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/netherlands-to-send-heavy-weapons-including-armored-vehicles-to-ukraine
Then I got the next round a bit wrong, apparently the Swiss had blocked a Danish delivery but it was not Leo.
The Ukrainians were a bit like car salesmen for a while with MBT
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/25/7360065/
I haven’t bothered to check the sources but have taken links that reflect how the discussion has gone.
It may well be true that the Spanish Leo2 are not in usable condition, it took quite a while to check that though.
The Germans held back for quite some time but I have the impression that they now do not stop third countries from sending Leo2 to Ukraine, right or wrong 🙂
10:33
When it comes to MBT and IFV, you start to feel like it’s simmering a bit.
Previously, we looked at Leo2 and half of Europe has them, including countries that have announced they will donate armor to Ukraine. The blocks have been that Germany has not allowed it, but they have probably changed their stance on that point?
Abrams, F16, A-10, and Bradley? The first lend-lease is probably a month away and will be announced soon, but why train on F16 and have an A-10 simulator if they are not going to get them?
There have been TOO many rumors about Archer, so they will show up in Ukraine, I’d bet a five hundred on that.
CV90… they also exist in a couple of major donor countries, Estonia, Finland, and Denmark for example. At least Denmark has signaled that they will donate more heavy offensive weapons (hopefully). The Netherlands has also promised ARMOR to Ukraine and they have a good number of CV90s.
It’s the constant – we can’t spare CV90 or they wouldn’t make any difference, we both can and they would make a difference, and I hope Christmas Eve much that they are on their way 🙂
Then you have the marketing both for CV90 now that the whole NATO is to be re-equipped and then the advertising for the country Sweden, because CV90 WILL make a difference. It is generally considered the best IFV on the market today?
Why is not hard to understand, it charges forward in a hail of missiles that can knock out Eastern Bloc armor if it hits right, who wouldn’t want one of those as splinter protection instead of the glorified milk carton M113.
M113, Warrior, Bradley etc. pale in comparison, especially Warrior is strange, coolest name ever and a 7.62…
It really irritates me (positive irritation) that the West is so slow with armor and one has hoped/guessed that everything was already in place but one thing we can probably agree on, the car dealers in Ukraine’s leadership have become quieter and quieter about MBT lately…
Now we have the constant – Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity, not the training etc. If we take capacity, we have discussed that MBT is the last missing puzzle piece (yes maybe F16 but Russian air is starting to cover large parts of Ukraine now, not just the western parts and air superiority can be achieved with LV and fewer aircraft). Near Kherson, it already exists in the form of upgraded T72s with night fighting equipment. That’s where the 5th and 17th Tank brigades are now.
For tanks to function effectively on the battlefield, air superiority is needed, that they are accompanied by splinter-protected infantry and preferably also artillery superiority. The other three puzzle pieces are in place on different front sections, at least so in the darkest Donbass. Then whether they have the capability to operate at battalion size, I think so because it was expected of conscripts after completing service in Sweden and this country has been at war for eight years and trained by the West just as long + 5 intense months of training now and they are quite armor-heavy in the maneuver brigades.
According to rumors, the Russians have poor anti-armor ammunition now and all armor is in defense, they have about 1500 tanks left approximately, they are targets for guided artillery and there is enough of that ammunition and barrels. A mechanized attack preceded by pre-emptive strikes with guided ammunition against buried armor whose coordinates have been logged multiple times – that can only go one way when the infantry doesn’t even have enough of those Russian New Year’s fireworks anti-armor rounds that look roughly like what is usually shot at police in any suburb on New Year’s.
Notably, in the darkest Donbass, it is more and more 1st Army units and fewer Russian units. Ukraine has built up heavily around Donetsk with maneuver brigades. I think Argus mentioned it a few days ago but now I saw it on recently updated unit maps, the constant number two must be held throughout the war 👍
The line Siversk – Bakhmut now seems fortified with territorial and NG and the same up near Kharkiv. The focus points for Ukrainian maneuver brigades are besides the darkest Donbass, Izyum, Volnovakha and actually Kherson since they seem to have reinforced with another armor brigade there.
The Russians are weak at Volnovakha, darkest Donbass and Izyum so presumably one of those three could become the subject of Ukrainian interest?
Izyum is a bit of a given exit since the Russians seem to want to abandon the area, the forest where entire armies disappeared was probably too much for them in the end.
Again, the goal for Kherson has probably been achieved, to deny the units west of the Dnieper retreat, we have probably interpreted that as Phase 1 here?
What happens after is an open question but that they have already achieved a goal of greater significance there is no doubt? Pretty smart to let an ammunition transport explode on the bridge to cause that big damage they had trouble creating with their artillery 🙂
A thought I’ve had here, do you think Russia will withdraw from Ukraine including Crimea and Donbass?
They see just as we do that materiel is starting to arrive and when it is deployed it is a devastating result – the end is inevitable. Now we know there is enormous inertia in their organization but during the autumn their situation will become even worse than it is today and somewhere the Donbass rebels will sit down and refuse war and say yes to the EU?
When they do that, Donbass is undefended and then there is a land bridge down to Mariupol that if cut would probably encircle about 60% or so of the Russian BTG?
Including most of their better units, VDV, marines, spetznaz, some Wagner, reconnaissance and a bunch of Guards.
Right now I think it looks extremely bad for the Russians no matter how you twist and turn this, even worse than at the start of the war when one felt they would lose spectacularly. Then we have the inertia that guarantees they just do as they always have – increase the level of violence and more of the same – but somewhere even a higher Russian officer must understand that it’s over?
I get that they hope China will go all in too but the chance is probably not very big except that they go in and steal a larger territory in Siberia now that it is undefended 🙂