18:01
The last 15 years of rearmament, or maybe a bit longer, have largely been upgrades of Soviet equipment.
Of all the cool platforms we’ve been promised, only the Alligator has really existed in sufficient numbers, maybe the Tigr as well. The rest have probably only had prototypes, if even that.
Sure, they can probably revive 1,500 old Soviet tanks if they want, it would take at least 5-6 years.
Then they have to be driven by experienced drivers, gunners, and vehicle commanders, and if they are to operate in a unit, platoon, company, and battalion commanders. There is a glaring shortage of all those 🙂
18:08
I copy from the post in that case and when you have to wait a bit too long, it becomes an external text handler which I just discovered called Word, it’s a company called Microsoft that sells this program, totally insanely good.
What I get caught on is that there are too many words and I can’t figure out what it is, the days you break it up into paragraphs it takes a while and 15 re-uploads and then all are approved and you become the thread spammer of the day and beat Erik the Fourteenth when he does his midnight race. You lose some motivation too, it’s a bit like when you burn an apple pie in the oven that you’ve been hyping for the family all day and then you get an ice pop for dessert, again…
I’ve probably thought about starting to break them up into paragraphs immediately so maybe only one gets stopped and you manage to adjust it.
13:12
Yesterday, reading HOMSAN’s post really lifted my spirits, what a chess move to snatch Mariupol right under the Russians’ noses. Then it’s probably fitting to backtrack on Warrior, I skimmed it wrong, thanks to whoever corrected me, Warrior is insanely good.
Izyum, Donbass, and Volnovakha seem to be weak points in the Russians’ rather weak defense. They have really over-reinforced Kherson and the western part of the southern front at the expense of everything else. The critical mass has for quite some time not been in their favor, so to gain local superiority they must become weak somewhere else.
At Volnovakha there are a few isolated Russian BTGs together with the 1st Army, and in Donbass there is a lot of the 1st Army. We often hear about the 1st Army’s faltering morale, and if they are left alone on an entire front section, maybe they start thinking about life and death. The Tik-tok Chechens who double as political commissars can’t be very numerous, and nobody really likes them, right?
Now FIRMS is ramping up again and just as HOMSAN wrote yesterday, it’s really lively at Volnovakha, Mariupol, and in between. They are pushing a wedge down and then around Mariupol.
Since nothing “happens,” the usual narrative starts again – Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity.
The Russians are said to have 175,000 men in Ukraine now according to the latest assessment I read. A not insignificant part of them are now DPR and LPR as well as artillery and rear units.
Ukraine probably started the war with roughly the same number of capable units as Russia but had to hold an enormous front. Looking at the unit maps, they now have around +30 brigades at the front lines and in addition the NG brigades which I guess are maneuver brigades now, plus capable territorial units and Volunteer battalions.
It’s not unreasonable to believe that Ukraine can field competent maneuver units numbering just under 300,000 men now, plus a fairly large number of SOF who make life miserable for the Russians on rotation in the rear; sleep is now a luxury often disturbed by glowing tungsten rain or pesky fire raids, and if unlucky, you get woken by a Ukrainian rifle barrel tapping your helmet, photographic evidence exists.
The Kharkov front is only Territorial and NG except for one mech brigade for example, and that line has held. The Siversk – Bakhmut line is predominantly territorial and volunteers with some regular battalions reinforcing – that also holds.
The western part of the southern front, as I interpret it, has a defense meant to hold against attacks, two brigades and volunteers.
Then they have pooled the heavy elephants at Izyum, Volnovakha/Donetsk, and Kherson. Especially Izyum is well on its way to falling to Ukraine, there are a bunch of worn-out Russians in between nervously stress-smoking their pirate Marlboros and glancing at incoming 155mm wondering if it’s their turn now.
The Russian attacks right now are a bit like that scene in the Winter War when the rifle company is about to take the church hill minutes before the Russians start their assault, or it has felt like that for a while now.
Now the bar is sky-high on the other side, that the Russians won’t get anywhere is no longer eyebrow-raising, that Izyum is about to fall and that they have de facto trapped maybe 20,000 men in Kherson is not enough either – it has to be a big mechanized offensive preferably with the whole army on a given trumpet signal for it to count.
I am completely convinced that something bigger will come fairly soon. However, you get a bit sweaty looking at the unit maps and all the Russian unit symbols but the quality is significantly lower now and the equipment is worse.
There is a globally strong reason to end the Bunker Dwarf’s death throes as soon as possible because if China starts moving, the playing field changes drastically and over time that risk grows.
Right now Ukraine has all the support they can realistically get so it can only go downhill from here, the timing is unfortunate.
Now I find it hard to believe this is the battle plan or the first round but if the Russians run in 20 trains with equipment to Crimea, then a wedge down towards Mariupol and a cut Kerch bridge is almost perfect.
Then not only the Kherson Russians are trapped but also the Crimea Russians and the rest of the southern front. However, a very active Ukrainian air force and army aviation are needed, as well as artillery on alert because they will try to break through east of Mariupol. However, they are excellent targets on the highway and the Volnovakha – Mariupol line is a natural defensive line.
Then you probably don’t need to be inside the city of Mariupol to achieve the desired result, it’s enough to have the few east-west roads south of Volnovakha under direct fire to get a Kuwait highway 2.0