17:58
The critical mass is on Ukraine’s side, now the Russians have kept 2 brigades in Belgorod and maybe 20 BTG east of Oskil, Ukraine matches that and then moves a hell of a lot of brigades to other places where the Russians are weak.
The Russians are reactive and try to plug the holes and at the same time they try to do as Putin wants and attack, anywhere it seems.
Ukraine can now choose the next focal point, anywhere, and the Russians have to react to that as well.
18:19
There are two types of torture, one is to get information and then either a shot in the head or release – there is a purpose with the abuse.
The Russian torture is obviously just a big sexual sadistic orgy of murder and torture, children, women, men young/old.
When the persons in question are in the cage/room then their fate is sealed, they will first suffer incredibly to finally either die from the torture or be killed.
This is a bit like how ISIS and the Nazis operated. I guess here that many who are arrested in Russia are subjected to the same treatment.
In Russia it has probably worked damn well to lower the will to oppose and they continue with the same.
The purpose of their torture is then twofold, first for their own satisfaction and the other more official motive is to make the area more cooperative through threats of indescribable violence.
The official motive becomes somewhat subordinate when you have killed almost everyone in a village/community so then it turns into ethnic cleansing.
Since this is going on everywhere, some kind of sexual sadistic murder orgies are going on everywhere in the occupied areas and ethnic cleansing.
The Russian mafia also operates like this so nothing new, just that it is on a large scale
18:59
I think the blogger’s take on what happened in Kherson fits well, the Russians don’t want to talk about it so either red on red or partisans. We had, when the offensive started, videos with heavy gunfire in Kherson which, if I remember correctly, was assessed to be partisans fighting Russians?
It is very good if it becomes lawless inside the city of Kherson, anything that lowers combat value is perfect.
19:25
Now I think Defmon has got the map pretty much spot on what we probably thought?
The line runs somewhere before the Luhansk Oblast border and the area between the Oskil river – Russian defensive line is contested.
I must point out that this was almost exactly what Gregg also thought.
Erik14 posted a video with IFV crossing the Oskil river.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1571182224191504385?s=20&t=84MFAUCP6WGvq_z3dPTu6g
This one is interesting to see how much the Russians pulled away to Kherson and the southern front.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1570885841899364353?s=20&t=84MFAUCP6WGvq_z3dPTu6g
17:46
It went from 0 BTG to 20 BTG in the area east of Oskil in a few days, so now you can’t advance with the units that have been sent over – presumably reconnaissance, SOF, and maybe smaller units. So it became a Kherson where it stopped, and we wondered why until we understood that it had gone from 8 BTG to 27 BTG in the area.
I don’t think Ukraine has been pushed back, but if they were, the bridgeheads are impregnable.
Then it’s probably a delaying battle the Russians are fighting (I think) because they seem to be fortifying the NS line Svatove and not trying to push forward towards the bridgeheads at the Oskil river.
However, it is emptier towards Lyman – Lysychansk – Severedonetsk.
Presumably south of Severedonetsk there may be openings, but then a couple of brigades would have to be moved.