09:49
If it comes Bradley and Abrams then it’s game over before the autumn break.
09:55
What has been discussed for tanks is – 3500 before the war started and that there are (were…) around 1500 in fighting units.
That together with the losses suggests that they have used up those that could be made operational relatively quickly.
There are different divisions/armies that have different depots so while we see T62, we also see T90 coming in.
Apparently, more modern tanks have been looted more intensively since it is technology that can be sold, older tanks not so much. Over time the Russians can probably produce materiel if the war is/was low intensity. A sudden push I don’t think they can manage without it becoming increasingly sparse between the tanks.
At Izyum, a huge amount of materiel was taken so there is no acute shortage except at Kherson. It’s somewhat incredible since Ukraine has destroyed hundreds of depots.
My guess is that it is a lack of competence rather than materiel that is decisive, the elite has taken the most hits as they suffer from reverse Darwinism.
10:03
Forgot to mention that someone else in the thread commendably posted Gregg and then the question was not really Abrams but that the materiel will come at the start and with already trained personnel. This is something Gregg must have heard, he often talks about how as soon as lend lease starts it will be a real offensive but I can’t manage to read that anywhere.
10:37
Ok thanks for all the answers, I have definitely read too much into Gregg and the answers are completely in line with what you can read about Lend Lease on the internet.
13:49
First we have a rumor but it’s DefMon so I’ll post it, in line with Argus’ assumptions that the bunker dwarf only has one gas pedal. This is basically the best thing that can happen, it will initially be a difficult situation to handle on some front section in the worst case but after this last attack they have exhausted not only offensive capacity but also reserves and the will to wage war. If Ukraine then goes on the offensive it can go very fast.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1572301660633927680?s=20&t=qP7coU24LojLc3F-XG45vQ
Pro-Russian forums are in absolute ecstasy – now 300,000 will be mobilized and drive over Ukraine. Realistically, there will come a stream of terribly poorly trained and poorly equipped soldiers who have enormous anxiety about being in Ukraine and are looking for every way out. Since Ukraine keeps the pressure up, they are put into combat immediately – the losses will be enormous and it will not change anything at all.
The shortage is not soldiers or materiel (evidently after everything they captured in Izyum) it is competence. Russian units have been subjected to reverse Darwinism and the elite has taken disproportionate losses since the war started.
What happens next – full mobilization is not possible because then there will be a revolution, trying to de-escalate is also not possible – the world is laughing at the referendum. Putin’s magic is definitely over, the time when the world’s media analyzed his threats in detail and interpreted the subtle parts and had maps with arrows where it would hurt most if we did not meet Putin halfway. Now there is a sluggishness in Russia that has surprised so it is not unreasonable that it will go full throttle here.
We have many times discussed the bubbles and basically agree that there probably will not be a revolution, a full retreat back to Russia or a hanged Putin but that Ukraine will take back front section after front section until it becomes unsustainable and they retreat.
The chess move is to reach Mariupol or Melitopol or somewhere nearby and control the southern coastal road, exactly where you need to stand is a bit open, there are many good areas, but the purpose is to deny the units west of that from moving east, only down towards Crimea.
The revolving door down towards Luhansk is also exciting as it can result in total collapse of the LPR or that they turn against the Russians with a bit of luck.
The area north of Luhansk is just a matter of time.
Then there are parts left to clean up and it will either go fast or slow but then a large part of Ukraine is spared and you can almost start reconstruction in parallel with shooting off the last Russians.
Have looked at the weather and it doesn’t necessarily have to become full mud now in the autumn actually, if it doesn’t rain heavily it can go straight into below zero degrees, right now it seemed to be okay for at least two more weeks which means passable terrain. Now Ukraine also has the best meteorologists who give them advice and probably have a pretty good picture of what is coming, as good as it can be.
14:00
Then the Russians are making a flytrap all by themselves.
They are not completely stupid to put the retreat route over the dam at Khakovka so Ukraine can’t Himars it away.
But the access and exit will be under constant air barrage and Himars fire so those who manage to get onto the bridge will be taken out at the far end.
We have already seen pictures of rows of destroyed vehicles at the ferry camps over the Dnieper.
07:55
Here we have a pro-Russian site that picks up on an American conservative publication.
I understand that the Russians are trying everything to keep Crimea but the logic of the conservatives falters considerably here.
Feels like escalation is max already and ask the residents of Mariupol, those who possibly survive, if they are afraid of all-out war. Many of the conservatives in the USA have gone very wrong here and they have had 6 months to correct, they have seen the same abuses as all of us.
“The United States urged Zelensky to leave Crimea alone. According to the authors of The American Conservative, Ukraine’s attempts to return the peninsula will lead to a greater escalation.
“With the available forces, it will not be easy for Kyiv to recapture even the Donbass. Pursuing Crimea would be a much more difficult task, a potential jump into all-out war,” the article says.
According to the authors, Washington does not want to give Ukraine the opportunity to risk regional stability and peace by correcting past historical mistakes.”
07:58
Again a pro-Russian site, now that all the blogs went completely crazy over the mobilization but protests came so the lies start to pour in. If they are to manage to scrape together 300,000 men from the very shallow pool below, they almost have to perform magic.
Of course it will end with lots of guys under 25 who have never held an AK standing in a field waiting for the whistle and forward, or the Russian equivalent of it, to hit three times with a spoon on a lying samovar.
”Partial mobilization will affect “those who have served, with combat experience, who have a popular military specialty,” said State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin.
“It will not affect 99% of the mobilization resource: those who have not served, who have no military experience, who study at universities, etc.,” he explained.”
08:00
I think they should recruit from – the military bloggers, the police, Omon, Rosgvardia, and the prison guards, but I understand that all of them except the bloggers are needed to oppress the citizens. It would be funny if they sent all the staff from the recruitment offices as well.
08:06
A reflection that the Azovstal defenders seem to be in much worse condition after a few months of captivity than after having spent months in a bunker that was shelled with everything. Several in the film were limping.
This should now be addressed by the UN, Amnesty, the Red Cross, and all those others who guaranteed the defenders’ safety, both regarding the guarantee but also the blatant war crimes in the treatment of prisoners.
Then I am actually quite surprised that hundreds were released, now this might be a bit conspiratorial but I think there is something else behind it than the Russians just got a feeling and released them. Ukraine might have gotten a better negotiating position here?
09:48
This one from Daily Gregg was interesting, I know too little about Lend Lease and thought that nothing was decided but Gregg has a different opinion,
“After 2 weeks, the lend lease weapons will start flowing in together with trained personnel so they will be sent to the various fronts asap.”
What is the thread’s take on this, will Abrams roll across the border on October 1?
From what I manage to read, there are no restrictions.