13:46
I know I’m late on this one but before a noticeably tired Lavrov stormed out, it sounded like this – “we are getting beaten because the entire NATO is with its army in Ukraine.”
Then there is the referendum now and full mobilization, million man army.
You know what the best part is, no one cares, the world turns away and turns on the TV. Russia has really lost everything here and the only question is how long it will take before they get beaten. This is COMPLETELY incredible, a geopolitical atomic bomb.
16:33
So far, the Russians seem to be mobilizing as far as I can see, it is still early in the game but are they boarding the buses/planes?
So there is a feeling that this is inevitable and/or necessary?
This basically tells us that the country Russia could escalate to a full world war and bring the population with it.
20:28
I know Putin has already broken quite many Russian laws through this war but ordering mobilization because the country is threatened when you are the aggressor and the opposing side has promised not to cross the border – that is far-fetched.
This could end at any time by Russia leaving all Ukrainian territory.
The fact that the Russians allow themselves to be led further into this probably says something about the iron grip the leadership has on the country.
20:33
You have probably seen this,
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573337744297926657?s=20&t=EuS1Vm_crch5GgixpkQQqg
If that little parade idiot with the chimpanzee face had mobilized this number a year before they attacked Ukraine and had full brigades and divisions, then eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper would probably have been no more.
Now it is too little too late because these newly conscripted will not have learned to operate tactically when they are deployed in combat in about a month. What are they going to put up against Ukraine’s maneuver brigades?
20:56
This is what one looks like after Russian captivity Amnesty, UN and Red Cross.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573299730851012608?s=20&t=EuS1Vm_crch5GgixpkQQqg
(If I broke any rules, remove this).
21:00
🤣 yes, you have to have your priorities straight here, vodka, onions, drinking glasses, samovars and then you can start with ammunition.
Stopped by Moscow’s airport in the early 2000s and sat at some café chewing on a ham and mustard sandwich when two Russians came – two drinking glasses on the table and a bottle of vodka. They filled the glasses to 2/3 and downed them, three times.
Then they calmed down a bit but when I after 15 minutes had finished my sandwich and started walking towards the gate the vodka bottle was empty, probably a 750ml.
21:03
Now everyone probably understands why Ukraine has rushed an offensive here.
If the referendum and mobilization had come calmly together with massive psyops and the usual – Ukraine can’t do more than this, then the West would have wavered.
Now with this victory in Izyum and Kherson, the Russians’ maneuvering is completely obsolete, they are a step behind.
21:10
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1573323527197003778?s=20&t=8yTcG_PcR7A9whZ1Q8qfaQ
This one was even worse, concentration camp prisoner.
21:19
Today there will be a finish line competition against Erik14, have been googling one liners all afternoon for this.
If you have the G7 on your side you have everything
https://twitter.com/G7/status/1573355194078953474?s=20&t=uGCnk1XlmgrEDi0-pWA0BA
21:28
At the risk of all the Green Party members in the thread getting a bit lively and starting to throw paper cranes around, but this one from DefMon is fantastically funny.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1573360658883674112?s=20&t=jT0LoVUh5ZwB9xjQMljafg
21:29
Your one liners could be sold for money 🙂
11:47
If you feel that Ulf Henricsson in Expressen’s letter to the editor is right, then you are on the right track regarding the Ukraine war. He is a heavyweight who has an unfailing moral compass and is also a pragmatic realist. A very nice gentleman.
Now maybe we are finally at the low point here, when the Russians are at their weakest? Haven’t they reinforced with the volunteer battalions because they refuse death, and after Izyum and Kherson maybe there won’t be a better opportunity than this to end the war? The mobilization is not showing results yet for a while and it is a sign of pure panic here, the Russians understand that they will be overrun in Ukraine in the near future if they don’t do something, so they are doing what they can.
Then the bingo win that the bunker dwarf seems to have ordered all-out war here which drains the last they have, over time they could otherwise mine and fortify cities like hell, everything could theoretically look like the city of Kherson in a year in all conquered areas if they have the numbers. Even a Russian can accidentally hit something when firing his weapon towards Ukraine and trains with tanks are still arriving in Rostov and Crimea – so it is perfect that this potentially defensive resource is wasted in pointless offensive operations just because Putin can and wants to.
For Ukraine, it would be logical to continue with more of the same until it stops, and if it doesn’t stop, Ukraine is liberated. The sanctions are biting anyway and all countries bordering Russia are being rearmed. However, there is no value in what some suggest – to prolong the war to grind down the Russian army further, partly I don’t believe the rumor to begin with, but then it would be unfair to Ukraine to put that task on them. If it goes fast, it goes fast, and if it takes longer, it takes longer – but the aim is the fastest possible win.
Now I can’t keep going on about the usual offensive proposals, they will all come soon. We sat for months speculating about Kherson and Izyum and naturally there will be an offensive somewhere down at the Southern front, the “revolving door” and maybe straight into the darkest Donbass from the west and then the area north of Luhansk will be retaken over time, faster if the Russians evacuate the area.
What may now be creeping in as mobilization is about to happen and the pro-Russians are either insanely positive or mobilized on their way in a bus is one – “the Russians retreated from Izyum so naturally Ukraine retook it”. I still believe that around 10 BTGs were lost in that area and that there were quite a few prisoners. I hesitate a bit about the prisoners because it seems the Russians prefer to die and Ukraine should have made a big propaganda show of a large number of captives. 450 dead/day for over a week + wounded on top is quite a lot, not everyone died in Izyum but there were probably around 10,000 down there, some slipped out, many died, some became prisoners.
A bit like at the beginning before one understood the sluggishness in Russia, I still find it hard to understand that the Russians do not give up or seek asylum. That is because one has their own measure to go by but there it has been full indoctrination for a very long time and the country is an abyss. They are like a swarm of locusts that you can’t get rid of. Who in their right mind keeps sending equipment and soldiers over the Dnieper when almost everything is sunk all the time and it is an encirclement? They do it because they have been ordered to and they do not question it. We have the USA to thank for a lot and that we do not have to live under Russian or Chinese rule is one of those we should build temples to their worship for.
The mobilization is the highlight of the week here and it never ends, first the USA leaked the talking points just because they can, then the speech was canceled and finally it became – partial mobilization. The Russians have either been indifferent or thought that they should teach Ukraine a well-needed lesson. Now that they themselves are to contribute to this it is no longer fun. I find it very hard to sympathize with them. Had these demonstrations come at the start of the war the West would have been on the barricades with them. A bit like the soldiers in Ukraine who call home – killing Ukrainians and raping children is really not the problem, it is the lack of food and that the Ukrainians shoot back that is the hard part and what they always come back to.
-First – Partial mobilization, 300,000, only specialists and those with experience, everyone else can stop worrying.
-Two days later – every district has travel restrictions for men between 18 and 60 something and they are not allowed to leave without valid documents. Mobilization patrols have a quota to fill and take exactly whoever they can get hold of. It is chance that decides. It is however guaranteed that if you protest against the mobilization then you get sent to Ukraine.
-this is so incredibly Russian that you laugh out loud, on paper there was some kind of logic in it all but the second it is to be implemented it becomes just abuse, luck/misfortune and the ability to bribe. Then it is very close at hand to assume that they really went all in when lying about the mobilization here, two days is a bit too short for it to have run away so far by itself.
We can be completely sure that they will get weeks of weapons training and then be sent to any BTG shell for immediate combat when the next hole must be plugged again. I get the feeling of the youngest in the Hitler Youth who were to defend Berlin in 1945 here when you see who they manage to get hold of.
Russia has just taken a huge step back to the darkest Soviet era where it was chance that decided if you were arrested and if there was no crime to pin on you then they wrote up a crime. Then they had the smart feature that you as a detainee in your cell had to prove your innocence. The system only needed to accuse you, never prove it. It was up to you, in the cell, to prove yourself innocent, which of course was impossible and they had a perfect system.
-An early conclusion is that if the Russian population does not rise up because of this then revolution falls very far down the bubble list.
-The second is that these soldiers will be overrun by Ukraine’s maneuver units a bit like WW1 or early WW2.
-The third is that if Russia is offered time and a low-intensity war then they can probably keep this alive indefinitely because equipment exists and the numbers exist. What they will not manage is high intensity like at Izyum and Kherson, more of that and the house of cards falls. Time to watch out for those in the West who advocate some kind of frozen borders or ceasefire going forward because then they do not want the best for Ukraine or Europe.
Now Ukraine must receive the weapons they request, from us Archer and CV90. They have proven that they can if they get equipment, and all we need to do is give them the top-shelf items, the correlation is almost 1 between the end of the war and materiel from now on.