13:01 – MatsExtrude
+1
14:12 – Johan No.1
That was a colorful painting itself 🙂 , yes now they have shown that they are happy to exhaust their own country in the race to the bottom and if they get the chance they will probably gladly strike. What we usually don’t discuss is sabotage in the EU against valuable infrastructure, I thought France’s low nuclear power output was connected to the war before I understood that it was temperature and rivers. If large disruptions can be caused in late autumn/winter by cutting cables or burning down transformer stations, it could get lively and that would replace the gas weapon that the EU has now bypassed.
14:46 – Johan No.1
Magpies noted unclear writing – attack attempts in the direction of a couple of bridgeheads and reinforcements in the area east of Oskil were a few days ago, the Russians tried a human wave which went so-so and the losses skyrocketed. Quickly written and became unclear, you usually notice it when there is a counter-comment on something you don’t think you wrote.
Then damn Gregg gets another star in gold leaf, he has long claimed that Ukraine’s reconnaissance and SOF have been east of the Oskil river but have not yet reached the Luhansk Oblast border. Now the map warriors are slowly catching on here and he seems to have been right. A good horse to bet on and build a picture of the situation accordingly. Now that he becomes a scout it will probably get even better. I’ve always liked Gregg, he shoots very accurately from the hip. A week ago it was almost revolutionary to write that Ukraine had established east of the Oskil river when all maps stopped along the river, if you weren’t covered in tar and feathers you at least got a home repair kit by mail and then you had to cover yourself on the porch with tar and ask the kids to shake the bag of feathers over you and take a selfie to send in. Had this second offensive continued from the west of the Oskil river with the Russians on the eastern side, there would have been river crossings and all that. Before this offensive, they had already established themselves on the eastern side along the river. Now all focus is on the Lyman encirclement but things are moving everywhere along the Oskil river.
I actually also wonder how a mobilized person can be captured after SIX DAYS? Our guess was that it would be a couple of weeks of shooting range and then directly to fighting units but the Russians did better than that, you had to go directly to fighting units and be deployed at the front within a week. How do you even manage that, to pick someone up at Red Square and then put the person into combat six days later in Ukraine requires incredible logistics and efficiency that we are not exactly used to (I assume it was a mobilized person from Crimea or LPR/DPR?).
In this video, a month of training before front-line service is suggested
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574899527684956181?s=20&t=aSsvpt_4p-nW9ICyO9yvTA
It was asked if tanks were necessary yesterday since artillery was decisive. It is probably difficult to take terrain with artillery, air, ships, or by sneaking around in the undergrowth. For that, you need shrapnel protection and firepower with direct fire. I think that still holds today actually and when you are positive-positive you become positive-negative when you start reasoning about why the EU has not sent from the top shelf yet, it’s stone boring. When infantry in defense has cleared their fields of fire and sits there chewing on whatever dry and expired they get for lunch and washes it down with cheap vodka when a mechanical failure crashes straight through the forest where they haven’t cleared fields of fire – then it becomes chaos, running, and death. But for that, you need shrapnel protection and top-shelf tanks. That effect when the threat comes from a direction you assessed as safe we saw once in the military service but it wasn’t very popular to go straight through the forest really.
Then there is probably some psychology in feeling that you can knock out the opponent’s vehicles (M113 and T72) vs that they are immortal – Leo2, Abrams, and CV90. My memory of Leo2 and CV90 is real monsters, you got weak knees and shivers when the outline appeared in the sight or binoculars.
14:52 – Johan No.1
Now this might be a somewhat opposite standpoint to the thread’s consensus but I damn find it hard to see that the Russians would blow up NS1 and NS2?
They have already stopped the export and it is their pipeline, why not take out the Norwegians’, the British’s or other cables BEFORE collective West is warned and sends ships that monitor absolutely everything on the bottom. That middle finger is very short because now there will be no more cables or pipelines blown up here, only the Russians’ smoke and we have all SOF not in Ukraine monitoring EU infrastructure.
There has also not been a classic Russian psyops started, the one where some daily newspaper publishes the article the day before the pipeline has been blown up and there are three or more versions. There were also no threats delivered the day the pipeline was blown up that you must defend your territory. Only that “it wasn’t us”, a bit sheepishly.
They have also not achieved anything of value because the gas weapon was already fired.
Very curious about who is behind it and happy to be proven wrong if it is Russia here but I can’t make it add up, you also have to assume that it got quite lively at Europe’s security services when the news broke 🙂
15:18 – Johan No.1
JEK, it’s a bit like coming to a fight and starting to hit yourself?
Then the Russians haven’t pointed at the USA and called them stupid, they have only with a sheepish face said “it wasn’t us, promise”.
Why wouldn’t they dare go after NATO countries’ pipelines or power cables, isn’t it enough to buy explosives on the black market that aren’t Russian and then place the charge some years ago with remote detonation and pay any IS terrorist to press the detonator after he has recorded the YouTube video where he blows himself up, and then flatly deny it was Russian?
If you bury the charge in the seabed, it will never be discovered?
During the Cold War, there were quite a few war-preparatory measures, much is speculation but there were probably ammo dumps, depots, and placed explosives around Sweden maybe.
15:20 – Johan No.1
Ok, good point, some Russian acted against Russian interests or on their own initiative under the influence of fulvodka. Yes, that will be hard to ignore.
09:08 – Johan No.1
This has been said many times now but as long as there was ethnic cleansing in Ukraine with five-year-old children raped and tortured to death in front of their parents and castrated prisoners of war, there was not much opposition in Russia.
The milder version was probably something like – “the average Russian is too indoctrinated and the media is strangled so they don’t understand what is going on, not their fault” and then topped with “you know that it’s 20 years in prison to protest the war, would you have done it”.
This is strongly contradicted by the fact that Russians are now doing a lot to avoid being mobilized.
-it gives 10 years in prison.
-they should reasonably know that the war is not a parade in Kiev.
Then maybe we can put behind us those Russians who were happily unaware, it was about Ukraine being devastated not themselves but the mobilization hits them directly and then they resist. That was probably the most likely.
09:22 – Johan No.1
Now one had to run to the maps, I thought that the forest north of Ozerne was infiltrated with SOF for an encirclement also works with mines, fire ambushes and fixed artillery targets.
The unfortunate thing was that they did not do it in the forest area SE of the town Oskil so a retreat from Izyum by some units could be carried out and now Lyman is probably not completely lost yet but the logical thing would be to try to infiltrate behind and strike against a hasty retreat.
Then maybe the Ukrainian spearhead is moving too fast this time but I do think that there has been talk about the threat to Lyman for quite a while so an organized retreat should have been able to be prepared if they hadn’t received a Putin order to hold?
10:33 – Johan No.1
There is a very reasonable pros and cons in this stance and it often depends on previous experiences and who you move around with.
Sometimes I feel that one forgets the most obvious – if Russian soldiers had refused war there would have been no war in Ukraine.
And – if the Russian population had refused the criminal clan that oppresses the country, Russia would not be as it is today.
The Russian population actually has the real power..if they want, and that is somewhat what one is starting to see with the mobilization, they are beginning to exercise that power.
In Russia there are too many who are prepared to commit serious abuses and too few who refuse so they have been able to keep going like this since the 1700s.
12:43 – Johan No.1
Putin and those with some self-respect in Russia must be incredibly ashamed here?
The Red Army and the Imperial Russian Army are a rolling beggar camp that not only abuses each other but also goats, their weapons are heavily rusted and they drive tanks from the 1950s.
Meanwhile, NASA moves comets (someone was quick with that in the thread yesterday 🙂 ).
The self-image must now be seriously dented and it must be downright embarrassing to be an officer with several stars in this limping circus. After all, one has dedicated their life in green clothes to exactly this, a war, and it is a band of robbers with a blood alcohol level that makes it dangerous to light a cigarette and exhale at the same time.