12:42
Today is October 2, 2022, and the war started on February 24, 2022.
I can’t answer why Gregg aired that they were forced to abandon Lyman’s defense but I am quite sure it is an angle Russian psyops are working on (that is NOT to say that Gregg has hidden motives, he shoots straight), the other is that NATO is trying to prolong the war as much as possible and only sacrifice Ukrainian lives. If they gain a foothold, they seem to demoralize soldiers in the field.
Actually, I interpreted that the Russians tried to retreat just before they were encircled and I am mostly surprised that they didn’t retreat earlier? I am curious how this will be reported because at Izyum there was never really any debriefing. Will they cover it up, will we get hard numbers on prisoners, dead, number in the pocket, etc.?
There were 4-5 units in the area and they attempted a retreat – so far everyone agrees on that.
Then we have anecdotal evidence that we got yet another Kuwait Highway 2.0 out of Lyman. Not many believed in March when that expression started circulating that we would see it and yet here we are now with enormous losses at the ferry camps over the Dnieper and now the way out of Lyman, one should also consider the river crossings at Bilohorivka.
This could suggest that the dead far exceed the prisoners here if the Russian version of an organized retreat was carried out?
Simply put, 500 dead in one day together with wounded and the number of lost heavy vehicles spread over a couple of days is essentially the Lyman loss if some were taken prisoner.
We always wait for a huge spike or large numbers of prisoners but 500 dead in one day is a high number even though we all probably understand that it is spread over different fronts.
On the unit maps, around 10 BTGs disappeared after Izyum, at the next update we will see where the Cossack, Kuban, and Guards regiments end up and if they remain – I must admit I have a bit of trouble following that, it took a while to establish that 10 BTGs were gone after Izyum and that might not even be accurate, it could be that the maps don’t know where they went.
I am still very surprised by the Russians’ absolute willingness to die here instead of surrendering, it’s a bit of a Japanese code about this but in a Russian way – they are simply more afraid of what’s behind than of dying from a bullet. Now that we have seen videos of castrations and heard about torture-murder-rape of children, it’s not entirely impossible to understand this reasoning, many probably have family in Russia for example and no one wants to end up under Chechen protection.
I think I see in the feed that they are already flying/rolling in mobilized troops at the same time as we have the training videos. Could they have divided them into two categories where one category is sent to the front fairly quickly after being equipped and the other simply needs their month to create chaos?
Anyway, heavy equipment and soldiers are arriving as we speak and that VDV regiment from Syria has probably already landed?
At the top of the risk list when the Izyum offensive started was whether Ukraine could maintain momentum. It is still at the top of the risk list – can Ukraine force the Russians to throw newly mobilized troops into battle as they arrive and too early they will be used up faster than the defense can be built up.
Now it seems lively at Kherson again and right there the Russians actually continue to reinforce, I wouldn’t be surprised if the VDV regiment from Syria ends up there.
Then I have some understanding of why it is quiet on the Southern front because that allows the Russians to paddle reinforcements over to Kherson still and over to that flytrap. Then they are probably also moving up towards Donetsk because now they probably start thinking in terms of a West-East defensive line through Luhansk, presumably?
Then Severodonetsk probably has a big A on the Ukrainian maps now because that would open up a lot of possibilities but whether it has been fortified since the offensive in Izyum started remains to be seen, they at least moved several BTGs from Severodonetsk to east of the Oskil river.
We think here that no one can be so stupid as to continue reinforcing Kherson but the Russians really only have two choices, increase or withdraw, and withdrawing could potentially trigger unrest in Russia so then more violence remains and straight into the wall. A couple of thread lurkers said this quite early, I don’t remember who, and it seems to be true. What they then must be denied is what could solve the whole situation – a frozen conflict so that internal pressure in Russia can be maintained while they save face and can switch to full war economy and await round 3.
A humiliating defeat is the only good thing for the free West, everything else allows Russia to continue with more of the same at a time they choose themselves. No one is really saying otherwise but as the Ukrainian steamroller with spikes grinds on, a narrative that a ceasefire would be good will be pushed out on all channels and gain foothold in some groups. “You who want continued war are warmongers sacrificing children,” it becomes morally wrong to support Ukraine to regain all its territory. Things move fast in hockey and this kind of thing can become a grassfire pretty quickly and opinion can turn.
12:50
Probably number twelve but there is film of Ukrainians in Zolota Balka
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576501477010378752?s=20&t=NY2PGWw6KlrhFDHgBFoGSw
If you want, you can probably ship infantry by boats over the Dnieper now.
12:52
Are the Russians starting to run out of brake material or are they building something for winter/defense?
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1572969598173204482?s=20&t=vdr36Tdt1WJtL1dhbm5Mwg
12:57
Here we have a rather resigned text from Svenskby on the Dnieper’s shore –
“How can anyone recognize annexation? Russia’s army kills Ukrainians: men, women, children, and the elderly. Russian soldiers kill swans on the river and eat them.
What kind of “liberators” buy alcohol in the morning and drink while driving tanks, armored vehicles, cars – and this happens every day. The Russian nation is humiliating. What do they want to drag us into?”
15:20
I missed quite a bit of that discussion and then it was evening with craft beer and the absolutely crunchiest chips to celebrate the liberation of Lyman, so I stayed away, but I’m probably on the same track – in the beginning it was quite civilized and we were more subdued, but as torture-murders-rapes against children in front of their mothers, castrations, and pictures of concentration camp prisoners from Azov were broadcast, the rhetoric has become much harsher.
To be blunt, I don’t think we should tone it down; we can do that the day the Russians leave Ukraine completely, which they can do anytime.
That said, we have the blog’s rules to abide by, so we’ll stop cheering for the daily lottery numbers.
19:59
Now it’s WarMonitor but he states it as 17 tanks and 11 armored personnel carriers and then the breach is in Kherson towards Krivoj Rog.
Can probably break through near Davyidiv Brid next because this group east of Inhulets should be quite worn out.
If you thought it got lively at Lyman, that’s nothing compared to what it will be when 10,000 Russians try to cross at Khakovka at once. Operation Badanka is very high on the “want to see” list.
However, you can’t help but think that if they had attacked with 200 Leo2s and 200 CV90s, how that massacre would have looked where they have air superiority and dominate with artillery. The Russians would have been overrun in a few hours. They probably deployed a whole tank battalion, but imagine if they could attack with a whole armored brigade.
Ukraine is definitely conserving its armor, and it will probably take time before everything captured can be put into battle, which will partly replace losses.
22:18
Was a bit up the thread so continuing here – Kozatske looks like a very good natural defense and someone wrote that Beryslav would be a fortress.
Down there they are also under their artillery umbrella.
Will probably stop a bit before Kozatske unless it stops at other lines before, quite a way to go.
Will surely break straight north at Davyidiv Brid soon.
The further down they get, the less area for HIMARS to rampage around in. When there is only a bridgehead around Kozatske, it’s nonstop death.
06:32
This was probably guessed by the thread with some map reconnaissance.
Will be interesting to read as he does his analyses on high-res satellite images 👍
https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status/1576697369089183744?s=46&t=JhWyIZCP-YxB6vEysCtaYQ
12:09
Continued high losses, now we are probably almost a week into high losses again here?
Before that, there were two weeks of sky-high losses.
Without trying to be German, I think it is a relevant question how long the Russians can manage this without reinforcements.
Now it becomes a rhetorical question because we know that trains with T80s and flights with reserves are coming in as we speak.
And that the last VDV regiment has been moved to Ukraine.