08:39
Presumed second place on this but it’s completely crazy!
https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1576266371507183617?s=46&t=obGy27-MXTk2p1t0vs0H7Q
They are hanging/standing at the back of some kind of blast shielded vehicle, they jump off at full speed and start engaging a house with a presumed Russian inside who probably fired at the vehicles?
There is certainly no lack of will to hit a Russian anyway. The equivalent for the red team is usually that they jump off and run in the opposite direction.
11:10
If Ukraine manages to encircle a larger group in Lyman and there are not enough units to defend Kreminna, it is probably a golden opportunity to attack Severedonetsk from the north.
The Russians have burned a lot of defensive capacity in their attempts to strike the bridgeheads across the Oskil river, all of which went so-so, quite typical Russian attacks that achieved nothing, a bit of high knees, waving the weapon and then death.
If Severedonetsk falls quickly, much will be wide open, the units in Lysychansk are potentially cut off if a southern envelopment is executed, the entire north-south line through Svatove can be rolled up from the south, one can move towards Luhansk.
Right now, I don’t think the unit maps quite keep up here, units are moved around too often but it seems there have been/are 4-5 different units in Lyman so it could well correspond to 2500 – 5000.
According to the Twitter gods, some units have been sent into Luhansk so the city is probably no longer easy to defend if one guesses. However, it is not a defense prepared over months and anything that happens quickly is an advantage for Ukraine.
By the way, someone posted a video yesterday with an interview with a vehicle commander from the Izyum offensive and there was quite a strong defense at Balakliia on the front line (but behind it was probably empty). So it was not second-rate troops sitting and sipping cheap vodka at the bottom of a trench but the Russians probably thought the minefields would hold, but SOF cleared them ahead and then they had sneaked forward armor that surprised.