17:06
I read the accusation and such things usually precede acts of war.
The Russians have sent a lot of units and equipment there and have probably also placed Russian personnel in Belarusian equipment.
6 BTG is marginally more than zero when we are talking about Russians and offensive operations.
They can’t achieve anything even if it’s in a cloud of Iranian drones.
If it’s Belarusian units, there are well, what, 60,000 men more?
He can’t possibly send everything he has, then the castle would fall in a day.
If it happens, it happens, it can only lead to Luka’s fall and democratization of Belarus, which I interpret is somewhat on the same track as Ukraine but behind in the time cycle.
Kaliningrad should reasonably also choose democracy if Belarus does?
If you want to be a bit picky, it’s not entirely clear what they are after the fall of the Soviet Union, Kaliningrad was annexed by the Soviet Union but became a Russian province after the Soviet collapse which has a different status than other provinces.
Before the Soviet Union annexed them after the end of the war, they belonged to Germany so there is definitely something to play on there.
Then Russia has set a precedent with LPR and DPR, they will have a hard time denying provinces in Russia to choose democracy after this if they hold referendums.
17:29
Those who believe in a long-range precision weapon have Chuck Pfarrer on their side.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1579127075369537536?s=20&t=vLeg6XvYHigz5caJbjvhFA
21:01
FIRMS is completely gone from everything nowadays, if you check it there are fewer fires on the Ukrainian side than the eastern part closest to Ukraine, the Russian eastern part.
Sure, it has to do with rain but there were clear fronts all through the wet spring.
Maybe there are lots of small oil power plants on the Russian side but it should also mean that Russian artillery is nowhere near what it was during the spring.
21:05
I think Belarus is giving Russia its equipment. Mobilized Russians jumping into Belarusian tanks at the Belarusian border.
I also think the Russians will attack down through Belarus, it makes sense to try to open a new front.
I also think they will get stuck quite early and that the columns will be totally destroyed by HIMARS and that if we haven’t seen Kuwait Highway 2.0 enough, we’ll get tired of it after this.
If it’s only Russians, the Poles will hold back, it will never be a sharp situation.
21:58
It doesn’t seem to have become a bubbler this time either, we need moving images of when the Hypnopad swings in the wind hanging by his feet from a Gazprom gas station and some creative citizen holding today’s Pravda in moving images.
You know it’s the Hypnopad when he slides through the rope loops a couple of times because he is too slippery.
22:01
I still firmly believe that Bess has his ear to the ground and interprets the signals but what cannot be foreseen is the timing.
I also think that the Hypnopad is incredibly hard to shoot, he’s probably a fast little ferret darting between chair legs and diving into some suitable hole.
12:36
That is how you show Gayropa that they are decadent and gay – rape, torture, and finally murder five-year-old girls in front of their mothers who are then released or alternatively desecrate goats or soldiers from other own units you get hold of if they haven’t already been castrated along with the prisoners of war, in your face Gayropa.
I believe the whole of Gayropa chooses the decadent and gay every day all year round to save primarily the children but also the goats, and because we have left the 1950s and the medieval prejudices behind us.