11:38
The most surprising thing here is that it took the Russians so long to start hitting sensitive soft infrastructure.
It’s no news that I think this, but that the free West is dragging its feet with offensive weapons is idiotic.
When Ukraine needs to import electricity from Europe in January, it becomes bad for all of Europe and we could have avoided that with more top-shelf weapons to Ukraine. If it’s open war, Russia will try to sabotage electricity production and transmission in the EU starting now. If they had been thrown out of Ukraine and fully occupied with repositioning internally, they might have used resources for their own positioning instead of striking the EU.
This whole discussion about Ukraine not striking Russian territory is already obsolete because there are explosions in Russia all the time. We all remember the helicopter attack on Belgorod this spring that was caught on film and there has been a lot in Rostov-on-Don as well.
I think prioritizing getting rid of the weapons carriers is starting to emerge as a priority and maybe you can sneak in some new cool weapon and run a campaign for two weeks and then come out with clear and explicit communication that now when the weapons carriers for the long-range weapons are knocked out, we’re pulling back the weapons platforms or ammunition to Poland. But be clear that if the Russians try Iskander on us again, then we take them out of the garage?
The not-so-hot option is air defense from the top shelf west of the Dnieper staffed by the West, completely defensive weapons and can be in place within a week.
12:54
Here you probably have one of the reasons why Ukraine gets better effect from the same weapon systems as the rolling circus uses, they have renewed the technology and the Russians are stuck in their 70s nostalgia.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1582259716486758400?s=20&t=mGFVu0XWIAv9oQPidF4CLQ
14:05
We usually say we have to be careful not to do a German and think they’re finished.
Evidently there is stiff resistance in Kherson because Ukraine has several maneuver brigades in contact there.
Heavy equipment arrives daily by train and we have seen T90 recently.
Russian air has also been active the past week and now they have personnel as well.
I had thought that the low point was pretty much right now before new mobilization was distributed on the fronts.
That’s why it was a bit sad that they hadn’t gotten heavy top-shelf equipment so they could run over the Russians in defense.
They attack with anti-tank guided missiles and M113 and sometimes lose rows of them and their Soviet vehicles have to be written off after hits and the crew is vaporized.
14:43
Took a walk in the rain and remember when you’re out and don’t have an external heat source how extremely demoralizing rain and cold is. Over time you get soaked right through even with rain gear.
It was called field coma when a whole group just sat staring ahead completely drenched and hungry, zero chance you’d accidentally wage war in that state.
The Ukrainians are having it tough but it feels like the combat value will drop faster and deeper among the Russians in this weather. Pits and defense systems turn into mud slurry that they jump around in. Then there’s surely a worry about night wanderers on the ground and in the air and there have probably been orders about no fire and all that, and if not, wing grenades or lobbed grenades are probably being dropped on the ground in every fire.
18:18
The Russians have thus attacked 400 infrastructure objects in one week.
They have completely given up on “wipe out the kilometer square” and military targets, they are targeting civilian infrastructure, preferably electricity production and transmission.
If I were an EU leader in any country, I would secure my energy supply and transmission right now because if they have adopted that strategy in Ukraine the past week, they will run a more subtle version in the EU with technical faults that when the year is summarized look like a huge hump over all normal years.
The gas weapon may be finished but the whole energy supply in the EU’s soft parts is wide open and if they’re okay with blowing up NS1 and NS2, they’ll probably be able to pay a technician to throw a wrench in a vault so it becomes a technical fault?
21:02
Someone in the thread following Flightradar wrote that there was a string from Turkey and Iran a week ago.
Presumably Russia has secured quite large stocks of things that go boom before starting the new strategy here.
11:20
Do the Germans have an Archer copy called HX3?
It seems to be on its way to Ukraine according to the Twitter gods and looks like the same concept as Archer minus the dump truck. Twitter gods and unconfirmed rumors.
What I’m thinking is that quite soon Sweden might lose the opportunity for free marketing and future sales if a splinter-protected rapid shooter on wheels like the HX3 appears. Now free marketing isn’t necessarily the first and most important thing, but it wouldn’t be so bad for Sweden if we got to equip NATO with CV90 and Archer going forward.
It hasn’t gone very well to sell Gripen before according to the media, CV90 has been smuggled out to various countries under my radar and Archer has probably been export-adapted and they hope for sales.
Export is good for Sweden and the arms industry will be booming now. Carl Gustaf, AT4, Archer, Gripen, CV90 – we have jobs and the free West is well armed. Missing such a chance would be unfortunate.