11:53
Regarding the Russian retreat over the Dnieper, it is quite possible that they mix civilians and military to prevent Ukrainian operations. In fact, that’s actually quite smart; it’s between that, giving up, or being HIMARSed away.
If they manage to return better units east of the Dnieper, even without equipment, it would be unfortunate.
There is equipment, it is capable soldiers that are lacking.
They can then go on defense along the left bank, and that front is permanently locked.
Not entirely unreasonable that they leave DPR and LPR units and withdraw ethnically Russian units?
One really has to hope that Ukraine manages to strike this retreat because those are the Russians’ best units.
15:38
Tank-free ā they have the artillery they need now, maybe a bit more 155mm, HIMARS in depth, and 777 against Russians in a hole. In the last few months, we have had the low point, and Russian air has not been overly active, and when they have been, they have taken heavy losses.
You take terrain with more armor, it’s that simple.
They get 2000 guided 155mm shells more; thatās enough for quite a bit š
Itās enough to work away the armor in defense, but then there is a platoon-company-battalion of infantry left, and trying to run high knees across the fields costs. You need shrapnel protection and armor for direct fire. The Soviet vehicle fleet works well enough; what has been delivered from the West is PTGB or M113, a glorified milk carton.
Bradley, CV90, Leo2, Abrams would have made a difference; they are hard to knock out, superior weapon platforms, and if they are knocked out, the crew survives.
Ukraine loses a lot of armor here; vehicles are burning all the time. They concentrate and attack with what they have, but I think it is hard to deny that armor is/is starting to become a shortage.
Just like someone above/below said, it hurts to see Ukraine rejoice over surplus from the West. They do the best they can with what they have.
Highest on the risk list is that Ukraine loses momentum, and now they have gone out quite hard here; infantry exists, but it can probably quickly become a shortage of vehicles.
LV, I think itās a pretty good kill rate to take out 75% of all incoming?
15:46
MX ā I think itās a constant whack-a-mole where different weapon systems/branches cooperate, and you need the right combination to make it work.
There are insanely many examples when it has gone wrong, but Ukraine has always had the foundation ā tough, well-motivated infantry and plenty of close combat vehicles.
For quite a while, it was artillery and LV that were needed, and now that is adjusted; what is missing to get a good combo today, now, is armor.
Hard to see that the Russians have any more cards to play other than a hell of a mobilization and a bit more of everything, so Ukraine can keep LV and artillery superiority and then get in top-shelf armor, it could/could be decisive.
I think so š
15:54
Well said Erik14 about what should happen and above all, you put it into words well; a red line against nuclear weapons can just as well be a red line against knocking out energy supply and the Kharkiv dam?
Just as you write, with a hard delivery of something offensive and then you go through with it.
-Exactly, thatās a language the padd-skin understands, he delivers a jab and gets an axe-kick and half nelson back.
Yes, I remember all the party crashing like it was yesterday; as soon as you thought you had reason to get worked up, a reality check came flying in all goodwill š
15:56
Do you mean continues or stops?
I think like this: as long as it is an open war in Ukraine, Russia strives to win it and will attack the EUās soft parts in subversive activities. They consider themselves justified because we deliver weapons to Ukraine.
If they get kicked out, it will be messy internally, and instead of trying to win the war in Ukraine by attacking the EUās soft parts, they will use resources to hunt each other internally in Russia.
16:00
If I may play devilās advocate on top of your devilās advocate ā would tanks galvanize the Russian peopleās perception that they are at war with NATO more than HIMARS?
They have been absolutely pissed off about HIMARS since day one here.
There is also a plethora of Western shrapnel protection in Ukraine if you want to galvanize the Russian people that they are at war with NATO, M113, Warrior, and a whole vehicle fleet of PTGB.
16:06
Grankovitch, that is an angle that has come from the Russian side that the US wants to keep the war alive for the MIC and, as you write, wear down the Russian army, that the US benefits from a long war.
-I personally donāt think thatās true because why else send HIMARS?
EU shouldnāt even think about it because then you play with fire like a child with an open can of gasoline on Walpurgis Night.
If that strategy fails and Russia survives while China steps up, it will be a sharp situation in the EU.
Now maybe they do that, and then one should be able to go and sit in a torture center in Izyum with a gas mask with an elephant trunk on and then get the chance to rethink.
16:20
Tank-free ā yes, but they canāt do anything, a bit like newly hatched eggs, where two vibrating paddle legs stick out and then fall a bit away, and you see two big eyelids slowly blinking.
Experienced personnel/soldiers/key personnel are lacking.
The least complicated thing about a tank is the tank itself, and they come in every day to the rear; for it to work, you need a gunner, tank commander, loader, platoon leader, company commander, battalion commander, reconnaissance, etc.
19:54
I understand your reasoning, and you are right in principle, provided that you surprise and donāt do nothing.
The other thing is that the longer time goes, the less inclined leaders probably become to join up, and in January when there are rolling blackouts, solidarity with Ukraine will probably be low in some places if one is to guess?
But doesnāt the same apply to a red line ā if you follow it, it works, and if you do nothing, itās ineffective?
The glaring point is that too little is being done. BAMā¦F16 (with Ukrainian pilots) should have come after NS1. I have always thought that these needed to be unlocked diplomatically, but we are far beyond being able to send MBTs to Ukraine, for example; castrations, torture centers, NS1, knocked-out electricity production, and what else.
It will probably be technical faults rather than spectacularly blowing up transformer substations. Only when you start summing up do you see what an enormous spike there was in technical faults at the end of 2022.
My two cents š
20:55
If things go as the Russians imagine, they will pull back the VDV and other elite units from Kherson and leave DPR/LPR units. Then the last thing they do is probably blow up the dam at Khakovka.
So far, Ukraine has not succeeded in a hard encirclement anywhere due to the simple fact that a defender does everything to avoid that. Kherson is probably the best they have achieved, but they have a large area to clear down to the ferry camps, and if the Russians mix civilians into the transport as shields, you can’t just ignore them deliberately, but you try as best you can.
What costs more in losses is making sure the bridges, including the pontoon bridge, are knocked out and then using all firepower against the defense until it collapses and thus gaining access to the ferry camps. East of Inhulets is what we’re talking about here; the city of Kherson can go either way and should come after east of Inhulets.
21:24
Exactly like that, you can get through the defense and down towards the ferry camps, cutting straight into everyone waiting for the crossing. It will be very difficult to establish a proper defense down there, but if the last established defensive line holds, it gives the Russians time. The last defensive line is then manned by units they are prepared to sacrifice, but they are not the best units either and may be thrown out of their defense.
They can run across the bridge on foot just fine if they are completely cut off.
Time is the most important factor here, but Ukraine must also take its own losses into account so it doesn’t become a Pyrrhic victory.
21:30
I don’t think so, provided they haven’t driven steel sheet piles first and then built on with what we see.
The Dnieper is swift, and a pontoon bridge floats on the river, but a cofferdam dams up; besides, there is a water depth in the river and the riverbed is soft, so very long piles.
I think it looks like they have placed the pontoon bridge in the shelter of the Antonovsky Bridge as best they can?
Then they have probably anchored the pontoons to each bridge foundation so they don’t easily tear loose and float away.
21:36
I know this is OT but surely there is futures trading on electricity, info from my electricity company. I’m pretty bad at this stuff but have guessed speculation drives up prices.
āAfter a period of sideways trading on the futures, a shift has now occurred. Prices along the entire curve on the futures market have fallen back about 10-15 percent compared to the previous week.ā
21:38
Futures prices are the expected electricity price in the future. Today it is possible to buy electricity up to ten years in advance.
22:32
Can’t this well enough and it’s Chuck Pfarrer, so low gear, but he thinks ā submarine ā divers and applied charge on the outside.
The thread has guessed charges in the pipes.
Now everything is Russian anyway so maybe a technicality š
https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1583057058794180608?s=46&t=kts6ez8YcpYuCqEnR_I9Vg
22:35
What does this piece of information mean?
Why is there a flight from Mariupol?
https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1583184215515897857?s=46&t=kts6ez8YcpYuCqEnR_I9Vg
22:36
Maybe it was to avoid mobilization
08:37
GrodaG, Putin is no-limits (except for short and small hands but all paddle analogies and other generally sweeping offensive epithets are encouraged) but maybe we shouldn’t generalize Russians as a group too harshly.
There is a desire to create rifts in the EU and between Russia ā the West from Russia, and then a āall Russians must dieā is wrong in context because it benefits the wrong side.
If you write āRussian soldiersā you have circumvented that, I think, and then you blow on with the invectives.
Otherwise, every normally functioning person should share your frustration because every day this goes on is one day too long.
08:47
The retreat from Kherson will set the tone a bit here, I think, we want as much chaos as possible and then right in the middle of the whole mess Ukraine launches an attack somewhere along the Southern front. It’s pretty clear they’re gearing up for a bang.
08:48
And one must not forget that Ukraine is doing everything they can, the intention is clear as they lob grenades at bridges and crossings, but it is in the nature of things that a defender tries to withdraw before it is too late, and if he is Russian, he sacrifices a large number of poorer units to save his better ones, it seems.
09:43
I also saw that about Svatove. Then it’s a bit quiet about the Southern front due to opsec, but pro-Russian forums are beginning to worry about an offensive, and at Kherson I think it is leaking out so you get a fairly accurate picture.
Then another piece came from a pro-Russian forum that preparations are underway for a counteroffensive at Bakhmut and a bit north, that is, at the BTG grill line.
Overall, one must probably say that UA is preparing for offensive operations across all active fronts if these Twitter rumors are true. But since opsec prevails, one dares not act on anything because it cannot be confirmed.
What comes from not unknown pro-Russian forums one must assume is known by the Russians themselves, I think, regarding opsec. The bloggers have gotten that information from the fronts.
11:24
Since this is opsec and you can’t post all the fun stuff, here comes a final post regarding the West’s passivity. Soon it will be all about the rubber duck and reasons for lots of amusing mocking of attempts to cross the Dnieper, and then people forget this and dive into paddle analogies, flailing frog legs, and such. You realize you are negative when Erik14 feels compelled to counter with positive posts, usually it’s the other way around š
If the EU can’t protect its electricity supply this winter (which is impossible), then I find it hard to understand the logic why the Russians wouldn’t be crawling out of Ukraine with really red-striped backs already this autumn.
If they had sent 200 (preferably 500) MBTs out of the 2000 available that Ukraine asked for, along with armored personnel carriers, they could have won the war now at the low point. That point is soon passed. The Polish T72s have been well used and caused damage.
All of Ukraine’s maneuver brigades are on active fronts except for 3, there are two mechanized brigades up towards Belarus and the 45th Airmobile against Transnistria.
The West has almost given Putin a chance to play for time by sacrificing Russian lives ā which he has shown himself fully capable of doing.
There is a clear change of course now in how the Russians conduct war on the ground but also how they prioritize targets and we are heading into the cold period. I bet five hundred that we will experience technical failures in our electricity production in the EU starting now, the grids are interconnected and nothing tests EU solidarity like having to choose between blackouts in your own country or disconnecting from the EU grid so other countries get blackoutsā¦ Why would Putin miss such a chance, that would be very un-Russian.
Right now I feel that the Russians are being given breathing room and that gave no diplomatic, political, or harsh consequences when they blew up NS1 and NS2, or when they bomb Ukraine’s electricity production.
Castrations, murders, and desecration of five-year-old children, torture centers, and mobile crematoria were also not enough for a balanced reaction.
Nukes are clearly marked but what happens if there is a hard change of course in the USA? (I don’t want to discuss nukes, if they come, they come).
Is there anyone in this entire thread who believes Putin is the guy who stops or the guy who continues just because he can with exactly everything under the stated red line, a teenager testing boundaries is mild milk in comparison, this guy’s signature is testing boundariesā¦
You can condemn this in words as much as you want, Putin has shown absolutely zero respect for anything, least of all what the West says in words.
On top of that, we have listened for six months to the Russian leadership’s power ambitions and we KNOW they do not intend to stop at Ukraine, they stop at Lisbon.
Ukraine is doing what they can here, they are not sitting and waiting, but they need more support and fast ā heavy offensive materiel so they can retake their country and humiliate the Russians enough that it could lead to instability in the country and they are forced to turn inward.
Putin wants a frozen conflict or a long war and he is prepared to buy himself a long war with generations of Russians and so far they go to the trenches without too much resistance.
– There is no reason not to give MBTs or IFVs, diplomatically it has been unlocked for a long time.
– Not shooting into Russian territory has never been followed, Ukraine has been shooting at Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don all the time.
– Donating Western aircraft is also diplomatically unlocked.
– Sending in light vehicles with European crews west of the Dnieper is also possible.
– Letting the Poles handle surveillance against Belarus would also work.
– The UN can declare some mission in the area west of the Dnieper, they have managed to condemn the war now.
Countries like Slovakia, Poland, and the Baltic states have already gone all in on Ukraine’s side, Finland has made strong statements so they are all potential targets in continued conflict, they have in solidarity with Ukraine exposed themselves to Russian aggression while the rest of the West still sneaks around in the undergrowth and doesn’t quite dare to speak up, anxious about what might happen when Ukrainian five-year-olds are tortured, murdered, and desecrated in front of their parents.
– What does the West really think would happen if Russia is not stopped, don’t we have a fairly good picture of what chaos it would be?
We are losing time with this dithering, if they had (as we probably thought and hoped) started training Ukrainian soldiers on all weapon systems on February 24, they would be fully trained now.
4-5 brigades with top-shelf armor as battering rams and Western aircraft would probably have broken the Russians’ back. Artillery, light vehicles, and infantry exist. They would then have transferred 4-5 brigades’ Soviet materiel to the National Guard and been able to slap the Russians around mostly everywhere.
A huge misjudgment in my eyes not to give Ukraine offensive weapons in time so they could fully exploit the Russian low point.
We spent the whole spring guessing when the low point would come and which weapons Ukraine would flex when it came. Now it came and Ukraine has gone on full offensive but with Eastern bloc armor and surplus stock materiel.
– Ukraine is taking losses in the offensive, it’s just that we don’t discuss it and now probably all Eastern armor has been delivered and they are trying to repair captured materiel in workshops across Eastern Europe.
The West has prolonged this war by tiptoeing around Putin and now they are giving him the chance to strike at the EU’s soft parts when we are most vulnerable and of course he will do that because so far he has succeeded in causing endless damage without consequences.
NATO, someone says, yes but we are talking technical faults and no evidence of Russian terrorism, an arson here, a forgotten wrench there, etc. It doesn’t take much to cause rolling blackouts in the EU, it just takes someone to do itā¦
For me, the logic is lost and the risk for the EU is greatly increased by doing too little, when Ukraine is doing everything to defend themselves and ultimately also the EU. We don’t even have self-preservation drive, you have to thank your gods that Ukraine is not like us and waits and sees.
Then it seems -stan has calmed down but the Balkans have started to move a bit, so Russian subversive activity is increasing instead of the West tying all the -stans to itself and bringing them into NATO.
When will the EU understand that this is a high-risk war with potential to grow and that the sooner the fire is put out the better. I didn’t find Xi Jinping’s speech particularly hopeful, what happens if they get a feeling and go after Taiwan and a couple of neighbors in Asia and the Democrats lose the election?
Time is Putin’s best friend and right now the West is giving him time.
I know I am alone in this, but I believe something will come from Belarus; it doesn’t have to be an offensive, but they can move up to the border, they can cross the border, they can cowardly shoot like only a Russian can in their shallow and poorly built defense, they can shoot with artillery, they can drone on with Iranian drones. All of this means that Ukraine has to hold too many brigades in defense in that area because the threat is potentially 10,000 Russians plus the entire Belarusian army. Right now, they are running drones, and next will probably be artillery fire if one is to guess.
Those two mech brigades could have killed Russians in the east.
Then definitely dust off the crossing over the Dnieper to establish BTG grills.