11:31 – Johan No.1
Just so it is not misunderstood, I mean the debate in general, it was not an attempt to point out anyone on the blog as Kremlin-owned so there won’t be any pseudo-discussion about that.
11:35 – Johan No.1
Tomorrow we will read the defense’s report on what they can spare for Ukraine, press conference at 09:00 where the report will be presented in full. It really only needs to be one A4 page – materiel for Ukraine and then different weapon systems and quantities. We probably don’t need to dive deeper than that, then there might be a classified part covering the sensitive issues.
The best way to scare the Russian dictatorship is to donate 500 CV90s, 30 Archers and a few hundred Leo2s with the justification that we have too many – then all plans for invasion will probably be shelved.
Or will it be top secret and locked away?
12:49 – Johan No.1
I wasn’t that serious about sending those numbers but I see it was interpreted as if it was written so carelessly by me 🙂
12:51 – MatsExtrude
Do we possibly have any more powerful mobile generators within the defense that we could spare? Maybe even ordinary smaller generators could be useful?
12:53 – MatsExtrude
Googled a bit and found this: https://www.nyteknik.se/energi/forsvaret-sakrar-upp-elen-med-over-tusen-elverk-7039581 (from today!). That should mean that maybe we can donate those they are meant to replace at least.
13:14 – Johan No.1
When Erdogan came out the other day and said that Putin was a bit more inclined towards negotiations, I interpreted that as a big deal.
Yes, there are reasons why the 101st is in Romania and Poland is exercising along the Belarus border, I give it a week before we have news that the US has a naval exercise in the Mediterranean with some carrier group and test fires some Tomahawks.
Since Putin so far has only shown one mode – escalation, the risk is quite high that he continues to escalate I think, and that he escalates until he has to turn inward or is offered an out.
But to accept an out that involves retreat from Ukraine, he must first feel that it is a more attractive option than everything else.
Then if they turn inward, the country Russia or the relationship with the West will not improve, and there is a risk that China will sink its claws into the country.
And trying to tie Russia to itself with openness, trade, and fair treatment resulted in today’s situation.
The solution to the problem is not exactly obvious, a start must be that Ukraine gets to defend its national border and then one must probably work forward in the best way?
A Russia tied to the West and “democratized” would be the best option every day, if it is possible.
13:28 – Johan No.1
I cannot assess the original source but Rob Lee has retweeted that the Russians do not plan to abandon the city of Kherson, they are reinforcing, but withdrawing rear and soft parts.
I think that sounds reasonable.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1584442008076050433?s=20&t=TZOqbWGXmXKN-1YG4zgqVg
14:37 – Johan No.1
It would be very un-Russian not to try to keep a bridgehead on the western side and it would in some way be easier to sell if you consolidate than if you abandon everything, I think?
16:45 – Johan No.1
Well formulated
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1584506622360965120?s=46&t=P5tHoFmZf2SgbUl-XsGAQQ
18:25 – Johan No.1
This one has probably been up, I guess, but with all anti-drone strategies, you have to admit that this micro-drone is probably almost impossible to get at?
It has to be detected to begin with…
https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1584553719311798272?s=46&t=P5tHoFmZf2SgbUl-XsGAQQ
11:18 – Johan No.1
Shoigu has now called his counterparts in the West and explained that Ukraine might release a dirty bomb and blame Russia. This is because Ukraine does not have legal nuclear weapons, so a tactical nuclear weapon would have been a bit difficult to explain. The Russians have also signaled evacuation of the Kherson region west of the Dnieper, so a potential target is probably that area?
This is happening at the same time as the threat of an offensive from Belarus is high enough for Poland to hold large military exercises near the Belarus border, and down south the 101st Airborne is now in Romania.
This escalation has thus occurred entirely without the West delivering those offensive weapons that would escalate the conflict/war.
Ukraine, being the tacticians they are, have therefore referred the threat to the UN Security Council as stated in point 4 of the Budapest Memorandum (which they rushed to read after Erik14 posted the news).
Ukraine cannot lose the war but we are probably on the edge of a long/longer war here depending on what the West does, the ball is in our court.
Kherson is a win in the making but beyond that Ukraine needs to break up occupied areas, a wedge down towards Azov, Severodonetsk and start hitting deep into the Russians’ logistics – then it starts to get sensitive for the Russians.
Right now Russian units are fortifying the left bank of the Dnieper (eastern side) but pro-Russian sites are not in disarray over Kherson (yet) as they were over Izyum. Now it is Opsec and we don’t really know what’s going on in Kherson but we can probably conclude that east of Inhulets is on its way to being abandoned, it can be assumed they are trying to hold a bridgehead in Kozatske unless they choose to abandon the whole area but that it will be LPR/DPR units.
How it looks around the city of Kherson, I have no idea, I think the defense is hard to reach so if the Russians want, they could continue to hold the ring around the city of Kherson, run their ferries and keep the inhabitants as hostages?
Now maybe they don’t want that and are retreating but what I read does not agree, some say the Russians are fleeing, others that they are reinforcing so for the city of Kherson it is probably a bit early to open a beer I think.
I flew past that all traffic cameras in Belarus have been turned off and that the last time this was done was before February 24. It is very good that Poland has its military exercises up to the Belarus border because the threshold becomes higher for Lukashenko if he gets any ideas.
Overall I see quite a big escalation from Russia’s side while the West is still trying not to provoke.
Then the energy weapon might start to bite anyway because today’s electricity prices are impossible to pay in some countries in Europe, Moldova is out protesting again and in every country with some unrest the Russian dictatorship is there pouring gasoline on the fire. When the rolling power outages sweep across the EU in January and Russian psyops ramp up that it is our leaders’ fault who stopped the gas out of pure malice and weave in some of the usual points that trigger people, then it might get lively in some countries?
I understand that the West would prefer Ukraine to just win and some want them to lose but everyone would prefer the problem to just disappear. Unfortunately, it does not because the inertia in the Russian dictatorship is somewhat incredible. The government in the UK just lost on a bad budget proposal but Russia can impose a state of emergency and wage an oppressive war without it moving much in the country. I have always thought that exiled Russians are those who truly hate Putin but there seems to be, if not strong popular support for the country Russia still, then not resistance; maybe they don’t support the system or the war but when other countries oppose Russia, their sympathies still lie with Russia.
The chance for a dark horse is thus low, Ukraine has carried out successful offensives and shown itself superior to the Russian imperialist army but we are heading towards Christmas and there is a lot of territory left to liberate. The single most important parameter is that Ukraine has the ability to fight the Russians on Ukrainian soil, they have personnel, they need weapon systems in large quantities.
Another thought that has struck me recently is that interest in the Ukraine war is starting to wane a bit. The blog keeps the flag flying but some days comments are slow and another topic usually picks up.
This is when it becomes dangerous because Kremlin psyops exploit this to get out their narratives and unfortunately it is not always the truth that wins but what you are bombarded with the most. If they can get large opinions against sitting governments, support from that country to Ukraine disappears as a consequence.
What is missing for the Russian command to start doubting the whole operation is a wedge down towards Azov, maybe east of Mariupol or over by Tokmak – Melitopol.