08:26
Japan was already on the ropes last time it came to nuclear weapons and when the USA dropped the bombs it was like – “what the hell, not that too – this is not going to work” and then they gave up, or they got a valid reason to give up because it was clear to everyone that the USA was invincible. Then it was signal politics to the Soviet Union, at least the second bomb – “we have something you don’t”.
What would a nuclear weapon in Ukraine do that is worse than – Mariupol, castrations, concentration camps, torture centers, gas masks with snouts, raped and tortured five-year-olds, running out of morning-after pills?
Ukraine is nowhere near giving up, they are in the process of taking back their country.
The West absolutely has something Russia has – nuclear weapons. The West also has something Russia does not have – thousands of long-range weapons and superior intelligence gathering.
A nuclear weapon or sabotage in Enerhodar will only become Ukraine’s and possibly the West’s Pearl Harbor, nothing else.
11:45
If you map around a bit, there are good reasons to try to keep the city of Kherson under Russian control, not just as a bridgehead but as a winter bivouac.
Enormous fields of fire, rivers on the flanks and a river at the back, as well as lots of human civilian shields – I can imagine a worse defensive position than that and all the elite units are probably concentrated there.
Kozatske is a completely different type of defense that becomes exposed if Beryslav is taken, and there is much less to “hide in” for the Russians. There it is a slippery downhill slope, if one may guess, which will end in capitulation and a panicked retreat with colorful rubber ducks. Probably DPR and LPR left as rear troops who get the honor of trying to swim across the Dnieper.
Now they are going into preventive defense on the eastern side of the Dnieper, which also makes sense, why give up such a strong defensive position?
The counter-move should be that now when Russian forces have tied up troops in the city of Kherson and the eastern bank of the Dnieper, they make their move down towards Azov. There is a lot of discussion about Tokmak right now, almost so much that one suspects it is not the main attack target.
If they go towards Melitopol, Mariupol, in between, or east of that, they never cut the retreat route down to Crimea, but they make Crimea an isolated island and all terrain west of the breakthrough point.
We have never really believed in a frontal assault on the fortress city of Kherson; the goal should reasonably have been to encircle the units there and then be able to move forward. Now it seems that they at least want to get a decisive outcome east of Inhulets and are striving for that.
If the attack down towards Azov does not happen this fall, my conclusion is that Ukraine currently lacks the capability for it; they have prioritized northern Luhansk and Kherson. Since they are going on the offensive on other fronts, it is not the weather that is preventing it.
There are few brigades (I believe 3) that are not at active fronts at present, so there is really no operational reserve in the sense that there are 5-8 brigades fully recovered behind the fronts.
Yes, there are brigades not in combat contact but they are assigned a front section as defense or rapid reaction force, and if you want to reinforce somewhere, you have to weaken somewhere else and they recover in the field. Reinforcements and materiel will presumably come over time but that is not the same as withdrawing a brigade, re-equipping it, reinforcing with reserves, and giving everyone leave, etc.
Maintenance will be boring for the Russian side, really unsolvable boring. I never made that connection but the big track-destroyer party earlier should reasonably have been to force Russian logistics onto roads just in time for the wet season?
Now they have also reinforced with 200,000 men and they need their cabbage soup, fuel, and ammunition. Russian offensives will probably be poor going forward but defense should be something they can try.
Amid all that is happening, escalation, Erdogan starting to probe negotiations, another puzzle piece is interesting: the Russian side is building defenses against Ukraine in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. If they did not feel threatened, they would not build a defense, it’s that simple. That they are building defenses also signals that they expect a long war.
Seems like offensive operations at Svatove again?