10:43
I know it’s WarMonitor but what a damn cliffhanger…
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1591918816094715905?s=20&t=u2AHix4_s1tEEs0Lo8TIBg
12:47
According to Noel, units withdrawn from Kherson have been moved up to northern Luhansk.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1592089373901672449?s=20&t=gsmAdGS-f1GaYU6TWyE2yA
12:51
Now I’m probably more than a little late on this ball but only just understood that Hola Prystan is almost south of the city of Kherson but on the left bank.
So has the bubble that Ukraine crosses the Dnieper with infantry and raids materialized?
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1591930620036648960?s=20&t=gsmAdGS-f1GaYU6TWyE2yA
12:51
Or what’s happening?
12:55
There was something on Reddit yesterday that I couldn’t open regarding operation badanka.
Below is a picture of a drowned Russian, maybe shouldn’t post it but unidentifiable and mostly to show that there was swimming or that floating craft were sunk/sank and there were drownings in the panic retreat from Kherson.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1591887633587867651?s=20&t=gsmAdGS-f1GaYU6TWyE2yA
12:55
Of course unconfirmed and then it didn’t feel appropriate to triumph about operation badanka in context, so we won’t.
13:01
Rybar’s suggestion on where Ukraine strikes next. (pro-Russian by the way)
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1591956170985684993?s=20&t=5UKCJHWmlo42Bse6Ye4lQQ
10:40
There have been many good analyses here now, so not much to add.
Ukraine has practically all its maneuver brigades at active fronts, and I noted that only 500 Excaliburs were to be delivered this time. Last time it was 4000-5000 guided 155mm rounds if I remember correctly, unnamed.
The point is that we all toast the victory, but to keep delivering, Ukraine must get materiel, a lot of materiel. Killing Russians consumes ammunition in all calibers. Johan has gone silent regarding the non-deliveries from Sweden; otherwise, it’s seagull talk.
Now that it’s a lot of cold mud for the Russians in the ditch, their combat value drops even more. There was a spring exercise where we rotated, and I got a platoon of outcasts + lots of anti-tank rockets to defend some area. We did about 3-4 fantastic fire raids and ran around the area; the reserve captain thought we were awesome, so he sent us around in even wider circles. A couple of days later, the platoon was like a daycare class out of sugar – I couldn’t get them forward and had to report that we couldn’t reach crossroads X on the map because the guys were exhausted. Later it turned out it was an infantry captain who didn’t understand the mech concept at all but thought we were the closest he could get to an infantry platoon and used us for everything – and that he never understood we were on foot.
We were on foot because we had parked in a rear area and nested in, then the red team took over that area, so we couldn’t reach our vehicles.
The point of the sad story is that the Russians probably don’t have combat value at its peak, and it’s getting lower.
Russian in a ditch is also Russian in a house, and now he wants to warm up – that emits smoke, and since people gather around the heat, it might be worth a 155mm round against a smoke column going forward. It’s basically enough to scan the area with drones and then send the smoke column coordinates to the artillery. Eventually, the Russians won’t be able to light fires when SOF is roaming around and guided weapons make life miserable for them – Winter War 2.0 where they either freeze to death or at least can’t solve any combat tasks.
Crimea is, as many have said, a Kherson in the making. We just need the chess move first, the push down towards Azov. My money has been on a wedge east of Mariupol, but my money has been on many things in this war 😊 The idea is to go into eastern defense along previously built defense lines, and then there is nice natural defense westward in the terrain. Defending in two directions is never fun, but there is dominant terrain that makes it possible.
Northern Luhansk is the key to cutting NS’s supply route outside Ukrainian territory, so that is on the way too.
I have started to understand that Ukraine, with the help of the USA, is five steps ahead of the Russians in everything, and when you get small pieces of information, you try to fit in what they will be used against – the 1000 suicide drones to be delivered will probably be fun when they are unleashed over Crimea or wherever it will be. They will probably HAM away the air defense first, and then the kamikaze starts.
My tip is still that the Russian side tries an offensive (a diversionary maneuver) from Belarus or near Kharkiv if they can, that would be logical. Not a full offensive but they rotate some units and shoot to tie down Ukrainian troops – offensive is the wrong word, more a diversionary maneuver.
Ukraine can make every front section into a Kherson; when the mud disappears, it’s SOF and long-range shooting that solve it, so every front becomes an isolated island.
Rostov-on-Don must soon have problems with smoking so the supplies down there decrease.
Darkest Donbass likewise, should start popping soon.
I know you can’t apply logic to this because Putin always lies, but you all understand that the roads will be full of Ukrainian flags when they reach Crimea and darkest Donbass too? Now they have tested Ruski Mir, and it was so-so, torture centers, misery, and general gloom. In Izyum, the torture centers were so close together that there must have been fights over victims to keep them going (distasteful yes, but the torture centers were worse).
I welcome a Ukraine in the EU; it is also self-preservation because if we don’t do that, we will have Europe’s wildest mafia in a few years. Good luck to the EU protecting itself from the million-man mafia where everyone has combat experience and a couple of scalps on their belt + more weapons than they can carry.
I have no illusions that it will get better if Putin falls, as there seem to be even worse candidates aspiring to power right now.
However, one should reasonably be able to drive Belarus and Kaliningrad westward after this without outright invasion or real involvement. Belarus was just on the verge of popular uprising not too long ago, and if Russia falls, the illusion that Lukas has backing falls too, and then it can go fast.
I think it can be counted as a win, and then the West can solve the situation as it looks after the war, but if Belarus goes westward, we get a good border against Russia, and if Kaliningrad becomes a demilitarized zone or something, we avoid everything they have stuffed in there.